Model specification in the analysis of spatial dependence

The recent surge in studies analysing spatial dependence in political science has gone hand‐in‐hand with increased attention paid to the choice of estimation technique. In comparison, specification choice has been relatively neglected, even though it leads to equally, if not more, serious inference problems. In this article four specification issues are analysed. It is argued that to avoid biased estimates of the spatial effects, researchers need to consider carefully how to model temporal dynamics, common trends and common shocks, as well as how to account for spatial clustering and unobserved spatial heterogeneity. The remaining two specification issues relate to the weighting matrix employed for the creation of spatial effects: whether it should be row‐standardised and what functional form to choose for this matrix. The importance of these specification issues is demonstrated by replicating Hays' model of spatial dependence in international capital tax rate competition. Seemingly small changes to model specification have major impacts on the spatial effect estimates. It is recommended that spatial analysts develop their theories of spatial dependencies further to provide more guidance on the specification of the estimation model. In the absence of sufficiently developed theories, the robustness of results to specification changes needs to be demonstrated.     

Violence in Juvenile Institutions

This study assesses the impact of selected deprivation and importation variables on inmate violence in four juvenile correctional institutions. While both sets of variables were shown to exert independent effects on inmate aggression, variations in the institutional context mediated the impact of inmate characteristics on levels of p r i s m violence. Preinstitutional violence emerged as the best predictor of inmate aggression, regardless of institutional setting. Race was shown to affect inmate violence directly m l y in the most treatment-oriented facility, while the inmate code was found to exert effects only in the most custodial institution.     

Re‐articulating Identity: The Shifting Landscape of Indigenous Politics and Power on the Ecuadorian Coast

The Levantamiento Indígena of 1990 was a defining moment in the advancement of indigenous politics in Ecuador. Following the uprising of 1990, scholars have paid close attention to the politics of identity and indigenous representation in Ecuador with the main focus being placed on the highland and Amazonian regions of the country. Based on fieldwork conducted in Ecuador's Manabí province, this article provides preliminary insight into the growth of an indigenous discourse on the Ecuadorian coast. I focus on the process of re‐indigenisation in the coastal community of Macaboa. This research is significant because while a great deal of scholarly attention has been paid to indigenous movements in Ecuador's highland and Amazonian regions, indigenous politics on the coast have gone largely unnoticed. The case outlined in this article is emblematic of the shifting nature of identity and the way in which ethnic discourses are increasingly being adopted by marginalised groups in their attempts to negotiate with the state.     

Cohort Effects and the Incumbency Advantage

The literature on the incumbency advantage in U.S. House elections has focused mostly on political variables, such as competition and incumbent resources. For this article, I identify an important sociological variable: a cohort effect that separates older generations from younger ones. Younger generations have been more likely to vote for incumbents, and the difference has endured over time, even as the political environment itself has changed and become more partisan. Moreover, the results hold even when one controls for partisan identification and general time‐period effects. The incumbency advantage may be a broader and more‐enduring part of American politics than has previously been recognized.     

Crisis Navigation: Lessons from History for the Crisis Manager in Chief

As fundamental tests of presidential leadership and organizational capacity, crises can make or break an administration. This article presents a conceptual analysis of what makes any crisis situation challenging to deal with, and it develops a set of analytical steps that can help crisis managers diagnose particular crisis situations they might face. The proposed crisis navigation framework brings together case research studies and theories of organizational processes, so that those assuming responsibility for steering the government and society through crises—including the Obama administration—have a useful point of entry into the growing crisis management literature.     

Regulating biomedicine in Europe and North America: A qualitative comparative analysis

Abstract.  This article explains the variation in policy design processes and the resulting policy-outputs of 'biopolicies' implemented within the domain of Assisted Reproductive Technology (ART) for eleven European and North-American countries. By applying the method of Qualitative Comparative Analysis, the comparison describes and defines the 'multiple conjunctural causation' to explain the divergences or similarities of ART policies in Europe and North America. The policy preferences of the actors involved in the relevant ART policy network and the institutional rules characterizing the respective polity need to be considered together in order to explain why different countries adopted similar or different ART policies. In particular, the analysis stresses the influence of party politics, the self-regulation of ART by the physicians, the mobilization of interest groups, the number of institutional arenas involved in the designing process and the nature of decision-making rules (power-sharing versus majority) on the designing processes and the resulting policies. Thus, different policy designs are linked to different designing processes, encompassing four ideal-typical decision-making modes: 'designing by non-decisions', 'designing by elites', 'designing by accommodation' and 'designing by mobilization and consultation'. These results shed new light on the challenges for developing a policy design theory that could provide a robust framework for describing and explaining policy formulation.     

Demographic,Employment, Expenditure,and Income‐Related Dependency Ratios: Population Aging in the Fifty States

Old‐age dependency ratios (OADR) are frequently used to measure the economic impact of U.S. population aging. However, at the state level youth‐dependence, and the “birth dearth,” are important. While federal expenditures on elder Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid are large, state expenditures on dependent youth are much higher than on elders. The states are ranked by the OADR and three other dependency ratios that consider youth and a state's employment, fiscal outlay, and per‐capita income. Very different rankings are found. States with higher OADR ratios had lower total dependency expenditures. Projections for 2030 are compared with 2000 results.     

Saddam Hussein: Political Psychological Profiling Results Relevant to His Possession,Use, and Possible Transfer of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) to Terrorist Groups

This article applies psychological profiling data from the speeches and interviews of Saddam Hussein during the 1990 Gulf Crisis to many of the recent questions about Iraqi weapons of mass destruction (WMD) policies and intentions that were pivotal to the decision to wage war in Iraq. Content analysis of Hussein's verbal comments prior to the invasion of Kuwait and after the introduction of coalition forces into Saudi Arabia were used to assess his psychological state, political attitudes, and decision-making processes under stress. The findings were then applied to the recent issues of Iraqi WMD possession, use, and possible transfer to terrorist groups. The results of this political psychological assessment of Hussein indicated that prior to his removal by coalition forces it was extremely unlikely that he had significantly reduced what he perceived to be Iraq's WMD capabilities. Analysis of Hussein's political psychology, sensitivity to threats, propensity for violent reactions, and tendency to miscalculate indicated that he had a very low threshold for WMD use and may not have waited to be attacked before using these weapons. The results also indicated that the same characteristics that made Hussein an extremely likely candidate for WMD use made it unlikely that he would transfer WMD assets to a terrorist group not under his direct control. Although examination of Hussein's decision making under stress indicated that the invasion would increase the likelihood of Iraqi WMD use, it was not seen as increasing the odds of Iraqi transfer of WMD to terrorist groups. However, the results also indicated the potential for Hussein to suffer from a significant series of cognitive biases with direct impact on his decision making regarding WMD, as well as his ability to use these weapons. Support was also noted for his potential to experience gaps in reality testing and immobilizing anxiety should the military struggle turn desperate for Iraq and for him personally. The implications for the characterization of leaders likely to use WMD were also examined.­