A Classification Tree Approach to the Development of Actuarial Violence Risk Assessment Tools

Since the 1970s, a wide body of research has suggested that the accuracy of clinical risk assessments of violence might be increased if clinicians used actuarial tools. Despite considerable progress in recent years in the development of such tools for violence risk assessment, they remain primarily research instruments, largely ignored in daily clinical practice. We argue that because most existing actuarial tools are based on a main effects regression approach, they do not adequately reflect the contingent nature of the clinical assessment processes. To enhance the use of actuarial violence risk assessment tools, we propose a classification tree rather than a main effects regression approach. In addition, we suggest that by employing two decision thresholds for identifying high- and low-risk cases--instead of the standard single threshold--the use of actuarial tools to make dichotomous risk classification decisions may be further enhanced. These claims are supported with empirical data from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study.     

The fate of the Assyrian minority in early independent Iraq: a test case of political violence based on rational primordialism

Analyzing ethno-national conflicts is usually not easy in that not all quantitative scientific tools are useful to the student of a conflict based on primordial elements. The burden of studying the outcome of a conflict is all the more complex given that the two conflicting groups might be at two different stages of their political development at any given time during the course of the conflict. In the case of the fate of the [Eastern Christian] Assyrian community in early independent Iraq, the political rationale for decisions taken by each party was drawn from different sociological, historical and political realms. Decisions in times of conflict and their political and historical ramifications are not always rational, since they draw upon primordial/communal considerations rather than the accurate reading of the overall true strategic scene.

The violence was an outcome of a combination of primordial differences and rational choice. The Iraqis sought to establish a new sovereign state with minimal disturbances from its Christian minority that they perceived as not belonging to the new nation. As for the Assyrians, they chose violence believing that at least some superpowers would support them. Historically, this rational decision based upon a primordial dispute turned out to be a mistake primarily because of lack of external support, weak internal cohesion of the group, and feeble leadership.     

Contents of Volume 22 (2003)

Volume Contents

Contents of Volume 22 (2003)     

Building bridges between the parole officer and the families of serious juvenile offenders: a preliminary report on a family-based parole program

Responding to a model of juvenile offender case supervision that called for a new intervention paradigm to guide the work of probation and parole officers, the present article reports on the use of a family-based parole initiative known as the Growing Up FAST program. Developed in part as a tool for use within this new intervention paradigm, the Growing Up FAST parole program targets serious youthful offenders who have been released from juvenile correctional facilities and their families. Based on elements contained within the "what works" literature and the Balanced and Restorative Justice model, this program recognizes the central role that field staff can play in rehabilitation efforts. Demographic information and formative data regarding the first set of families to participate in this program are presented, then program limitations and lessons learned as part of the initial offering of this parole initiative are discussed.     

Time-Varying Risk Factors for Reassault Among Batterer Program Participants

This study uses longitudinal data to identify risk markers for reassault among batterer program participants. Data are from 308 men and their partners collected at five, 3-month intervals. Time-varying situational and behavioral risk factors, as well as time-invariant individual characteristics, are examined. The most influential risk markers, in terms of relative risk and level of statistical significance, were time-varying: 2 measures of the man's drunkenness during the follow-up interval in which the reassault occurred (OR: 3.5-16.3; p > .0005). Other included time-varying batterer characteristics had no significant effect on reassault. Two significant time-invariant batterer risk factors were (1) severe psychopathology and (2) a history of non-domestic-violence arrest, both measured at intake. Results suggest that batterers' drinking behavior after program intake may provide an important and easily observed marker for risk of reassault and that prediction of reassault with individual risk factors at program intake remains problematical.     

A Constitution for Antidiscrimination: Exploring the Vanguard Moment of Community Law

It is a commonplace that 'non-discrimination' is a fundamental principle of Community Law. If the principle is taken to express a broader commitment to equality, however, there appears to be something quite unusual about it. When compared with the standards set by modern constitutional law, the commitment to equality is, at least with respect to Member State action, less extensive; in the context of indirect gender discrimination, however, the principle acquires remarkable scope. Although this 'vanguard moment' of Community Law is tacitly acknowledged in the practice of the ECJ, it is, at the same time, subdued; the resources of the principle might be tapped, however, by moving toward a constitution for antidiscrimination. The article explores both the philosophical presuppositions and the institutional context of what could become a constitutionalisation of antidiscrimination at the level of Community Law.     

Manic-depressive illness in adolescence

The efficacy of lithium carbonate as a treatment for manic-depressive illness has stimulated a reevaluation of the syndrome. In this paper, the authors review the obstacles to timely diagnosis of manic-depressive illness in the adolescent. Three cases are presented demonstrating the usefulness of a unitary concept in which manic-depressive illness is understood and appreciated as having a physiologic basis, manifesting its effects in the total body system. The heterofore diverse and confusing psychological and behavioral symptoms of manic depressive illness in adolescents become intelligible when regarded as secondary phenomena: the psychic experience of the process as filtered through the psychological constitution of the individual adolescent.Supported in part by a grant from Mr. and Mrs. A. Frank Rothschild, Sr.Received her postgraduate training in psychiatry at P&PI.