Assessing the Effect of Batterer Program Completion on Reassault: An Instrumental Variables Analysis

The main objective of this paper is to investigate the utility of using the instrumental variables (IV) method to estimate batterer program efficacy, i.e., the program effect among batterers who complete batterer programs. This method takes account of possible confounding due to unmeasured traits of compliers and non-compliers. A structural model is used to estimate the impact of program completion on reassault using instrumental variables (IV) regression. Data on 640 batterers enrolled at three batterer programs are used. Results obtained from IV regression are compared with those obtained from a more traditional regression analysis. The results indicate that usual regression methods yield estimates of program effect that may be biased due to confounding by unmeasured batterer characteristics. Unfortunately, IV estimates may be unreliable due to failure of some of the assumptions on which they are based. If equations are adequately identified by the non-linear functional form used to estimate them, then IV results indicate that among a very select group of batterers, program completion significantly reduces the probability of reassault. The implications of confounding due to program non-compliance, program non-enrollment and attrition for future evaluations of batterer programs are discussed.     

Red or Expert? The Anglo–Soviet Exchange of Ambassadors in 1929

Throughout the 1920s, distrust and contention marked Anglo–Soviet relations, culminating in the diplomatic break in 1927. In 1929, the incoming Labour government successfully pursued its objective of re-establishing diplomatic relations with Moscow, but the follow-up in terms of ambassadorial appointments was far from routine for either side. This analysis shows that internal pressures complicated decisions about whether to appoint career diplomats or choose political figures. Resisting both claims from enthusiastically hopeful Labour backbenchers and criticisms from the left wing media, the British foreign secretary, Arthur Henderson, chose a Russian-speaking career diplomat. On the Soviet side, the first choice was a controversial politician, but then replaced by a financial expert, albeit one tainted as a defeated political opponent of Josef Stalin. Whilst both ambassadors could be considered “professionals,” neither was able to have a deep impact on the relationship, which remained troubled.     

“Juvenile Drug Courts and Recidivism: Results from a Multisite Outcome Study”

This study reports findings from a study of nine juvenile drug courts (JDCs) from across the US. A quasi-experimental design, with one-to-one matching on possible confounders and sociodemographics, was used for the outcome assessment (n?=?1372). Baseline and outcome data were drawn from justice system records. Although there is variation across sites and, to some extent, outcomes, these JDCs were generally ineffective in reducing recidivism. Similar findings have emerged in other recent studies of JDCs. Given the results of this study and others, it is essential that juvenile courts work to improve the effectiveness of JDCs by increasing adherence to known principles of effective intervention.     

Who ‘Tweets’ Where and When,and How Does it Help Understand Crime Rates at Places? Measuring the Presence of Tourists and Commuters in Ambient Populations

Journal of Quantitative Criminology - Test the reliability of geotagged Twitter data for estimating block-level population metrics across place types. Evaluate whether the proportion of Twitter...