“Juvenile Drug Courts and Recidivism: Results from a Multisite Outcome Study”

This study reports findings from a study of nine juvenile drug courts (JDCs) from across the US. A quasi-experimental design, with one-to-one matching on possible confounders and sociodemographics, was used for the outcome assessment (n?=?1372). Baseline and outcome data were drawn from justice system records. Although there is variation across sites and, to some extent, outcomes, these JDCs were generally ineffective in reducing recidivism. Similar findings have emerged in other recent studies of JDCs. Given the results of this study and others, it is essential that juvenile courts work to improve the effectiveness of JDCs by increasing adherence to known principles of effective intervention.     

After the halcyon days: the anti-/alterglobalization movement and international organizations, 1996–2011

Why are relations between non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and international organizations (IOs) sometimes conflictual and other times collaborative? This article evaluates hypotheses in the international relations and social movements literatures with reference to relations between NGOs associated with the anti-/alterglobalization movement and multilateral economic institutions (MEIs). Drawing on an original database and interviews with MEI and NGO staff members, the article shows that attributes of NGOs – including NGO budgets, ideology, and organizational structure – rather than the political or economic environment better account not only for an overall increase in collaboration with IOs since the late 1990s, but also for a growing divergence among NGOs regarding the acceptability of such collaboration.     

Infrared spectroscopic imaging for noninvasive detection of latent fingerprints

The capability of Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopic imaging to provide detailed images of unprocessed latent fingerprints while also preserving important trace evidence is demonstrated. Unprocessed fingerprints were developed on various porous and nonporous substrates. Data-processing methods used to extract the latent fingerprint ridge pattern from the background material included basic infrared spectroscopic band intensities, addition and subtraction of band intensity measurements, principal components analysis (PCA) and calculation of second derivative band intensities, as well as combinations of these various techniques. Additionally, trace evidence within the fingerprints was recovered and identified.     

Violence and Mental Illness: A New Analytic Approach

Empirical studies of violence and mental illness have used many different methods. Current state-of-the-art methods gather information from both subject and collateral interviews as well as official records. Typically these sources are treated as additive. Any report of a violent incident from any source is treated as true and all reported incidents are added to generate estimates of frequency. This paper presents a new statistical technique that uses the level of agreement between the sources of data to adjust those estimates. The evidence suggests that, although the additive technique for using multiple sources correctly estimates how many people are involved, it substantially underestimates the number of incidents. The new technique substantially reduces both false negatives and false positives.     

Recidivism in a Sample of Serious Adolescent Offenders

Objectives

A broad research literature in criminology documents key aspects of how criminal offending develops and changes over the life span. We contribute to this literature by showcasing methods that are useful for studying medium-term patterns of subsequent criminal justice system involvement among a sample of serious adolescent offenders making the transition to early adulthood.

Methods

Our approach relies on 7 years of post-enrollment follow-up from the Pathways to Desistance Study. Each person in the study was adjudicated delinquent for or convicted of one or more relatively serious offenses during adolescence. Their local jurisdiction juvenile court petition records and their adult FBI arrest records were systematically searched.

Results

We estimate in-sample 7 year recidivism rates in the 75–80 % range. Our analysis also provides recidivism rate estimates among different demographic groups within the sample. Extrapolated long-term recidivism rates are estimated to be on the order of 79–89 %.

Conclusions

The Pathways data suggest that recidivism rates of serious adolescent offenders are high and quite comparable to the rates estimated on other samples of serious offenders in the extant literature. Our analysis also reveals a pattern of heightened recidivism risk during the earliest months and years of the follow-up period followed by a steep decline.

     

Working with Misspecified Regression Models

Objectives

Conventional statistical modeling in criminology assumes proper model specification. Very strong and unrebutted criticisms have existed for decades. Some respond that although the criticisms are correct, there is for observational data no alternative. In this paper, we provide an alternative.

Methods

We draw on work in econometrics and statistics from several decades ago, updated with the most recent thinking to provide a way to properly work with misspecified models.

Results

We show how asymptotically, unbiased regression estimates can be obtained along with valid standard errors. Conventional statistical inference can follow.

Conclusions

If one is prepared to work with explicit approximations of a “true” model, defensible analyses can be obtained. The alternative is working with models about which all of the usual criticisms hold.

     

Examining Predictors of Parole Release in a Rural Female Jail Population

Parole has long been a linchpin of correctional practices but few studies have examined discretionary parole release in a female population. The current study examines factors, both static risk and dynamic needs, that influence parole decision making in a rural female jail population. The researchers collected data on parole releases from a rural county jail over a 3-year period beginning in 2012 (N?=?138). Offenders obtained a recommendation for parole release from a reentry assessment team that met at the jail each month to evaluate cases for parole eligibility. Logistic regression was used to explain variance in the factors considered by the reentry assessment team and it was evident that both static risk factors and dynamic needs play a role in discretionary parole release. We also examined obstacles or challenges that female offenders face when paroling to a rural location. Several policy recommendation related to the study are addressed.