A Classification Tree Approach to the Development of Actuarial Violence Risk Assessment Tools

Since the 1970s, a wide body of research has suggested that the accuracy of clinical risk assessments of violence might be increased if clinicians used actuarial tools. Despite considerable progress in recent years in the development of such tools for violence risk assessment, they remain primarily research instruments, largely ignored in daily clinical practice. We argue that because most existing actuarial tools are based on a main effects regression approach, they do not adequately reflect the contingent nature of the clinical assessment processes. To enhance the use of actuarial violence risk assessment tools, we propose a classification tree rather than a main effects regression approach. In addition, we suggest that by employing two decision thresholds for identifying high- and low-risk cases--instead of the standard single threshold--the use of actuarial tools to make dichotomous risk classification decisions may be further enhanced. These claims are supported with empirical data from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study.     

论当前广西与泰国的经贸关系——兼谈与云南和泰国经贸关系的比较分析

在发展同泰国的经贸关系中,广西与云南具有许多相似点,例如广西与云南的区位优势都很明显,都是中国通向东南亚的桥头堡,与泰国距离都很近;根据专家的研究,云南的傣族、广西的壮族与泰国的民族都是"同源异流",双方习俗相似、语音相近,两省区都有不少华侨华人在泰国.更重要的是,云南与广西在产业结构上都是工业不发达以农业为基础的省份,两省区与泰国产业结构趋同和产业水平相近,产业内贸易在双方贸易总额中所占比重很大.在这样相同的背景下,对云南与泰国的经贸关系和广西与泰国的经贸关系进行比较分析,找出其中的差距,借鉴云南的经验,挖掘自身的优势,对于进一步推动广西与泰国的经贸关系的发展无疑具有重要的意义.     

《关于执行〈中华人民共和国行政诉讼法〉若干问题的解释》第53条第2款的理解与适用

《若干问题的解释》第53条第2款因没有区别复议决定不同的具体处理情况而作出有针对性的规定,存在违反行政法理论和在实践中无法适用的可能。该款可以考虑修改为:“复议决定改变原具体行政行为错误,人民法院判决撤销复议决定时,应当责令复议机关重新作出复议决定;但复议决定仅撤销原具体行政行为,或者在撤销原具体行政行为的同时责令被申请人在一定期限内重新作出具体行政行为的情况除外。”     

Building bridges between the parole officer and the families of serious juvenile offenders: a preliminary report on a family-based parole program

Responding to a model of juvenile offender case supervision that called for a new intervention paradigm to guide the work of probation and parole officers, the present article reports on the use of a family-based parole initiative known as the Growing Up FAST program. Developed in part as a tool for use within this new intervention paradigm, the Growing Up FAST parole program targets serious youthful offenders who have been released from juvenile correctional facilities and their families. Based on elements contained within the "what works" literature and the Balanced and Restorative Justice model, this program recognizes the central role that field staff can play in rehabilitation efforts. Demographic information and formative data regarding the first set of families to participate in this program are presented, then program limitations and lessons learned as part of the initial offering of this parole initiative are discussed.     

Time-Varying Risk Factors for Reassault Among Batterer Program Participants

This study uses longitudinal data to identify risk markers for reassault among batterer program participants. Data are from 308 men and their partners collected at five, 3-month intervals. Time-varying situational and behavioral risk factors, as well as time-invariant individual characteristics, are examined. The most influential risk markers, in terms of relative risk and level of statistical significance, were time-varying: 2 measures of the man's drunkenness during the follow-up interval in which the reassault occurred (OR: 3.5-16.3; p > .0005). Other included time-varying batterer characteristics had no significant effect on reassault. Two significant time-invariant batterer risk factors were (1) severe psychopathology and (2) a history of non-domestic-violence arrest, both measured at intake. Results suggest that batterers' drinking behavior after program intake may provide an important and easily observed marker for risk of reassault and that prediction of reassault with individual risk factors at program intake remains problematical.     

党的建设理论的伟大创新--学习江泽民总书记在庆祝中国共产党成立八十周年大会上的讲话

文章论述了江泽民同志在庆祝中国共产党成立八十周年大会上的讲话中党的建设理论的一系列新观点、新思想,认为"三个代表"重要思想、坚持党的阶级性与增强党的阶级基础和扩大党的群众基础的统一、坚持党的最高纲领和现实纲领的统一、改进党的执政方式和工作作风等新观点,回答了党的建设进程中的重大理论和实践问题,是对党的建设理论的伟大创新.