A Classification Tree Approach to the Development of Actuarial Violence Risk Assessment Tools

Since the 1970s, a wide body of research has suggested that the accuracy of clinical risk assessments of violence might be increased if clinicians used actuarial tools. Despite considerable progress in recent years in the development of such tools for violence risk assessment, they remain primarily research instruments, largely ignored in daily clinical practice. We argue that because most existing actuarial tools are based on a main effects regression approach, they do not adequately reflect the contingent nature of the clinical assessment processes. To enhance the use of actuarial violence risk assessment tools, we propose a classification tree rather than a main effects regression approach. In addition, we suggest that by employing two decision thresholds for identifying high- and low-risk cases--instead of the standard single threshold--the use of actuarial tools to make dichotomous risk classification decisions may be further enhanced. These claims are supported with empirical data from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study.     

Building bridges between the parole officer and the families of serious juvenile offenders: a preliminary report on a family-based parole program

Responding to a model of juvenile offender case supervision that called for a new intervention paradigm to guide the work of probation and parole officers, the present article reports on the use of a family-based parole initiative known as the Growing Up FAST program. Developed in part as a tool for use within this new intervention paradigm, the Growing Up FAST parole program targets serious youthful offenders who have been released from juvenile correctional facilities and their families. Based on elements contained within the "what works" literature and the Balanced and Restorative Justice model, this program recognizes the central role that field staff can play in rehabilitation efforts. Demographic information and formative data regarding the first set of families to participate in this program are presented, then program limitations and lessons learned as part of the initial offering of this parole initiative are discussed.     

Time-Varying Risk Factors for Reassault Among Batterer Program Participants

This study uses longitudinal data to identify risk markers for reassault among batterer program participants. Data are from 308 men and their partners collected at five, 3-month intervals. Time-varying situational and behavioral risk factors, as well as time-invariant individual characteristics, are examined. The most influential risk markers, in terms of relative risk and level of statistical significance, were time-varying: 2 measures of the man's drunkenness during the follow-up interval in which the reassault occurred (OR: 3.5-16.3; p > .0005). Other included time-varying batterer characteristics had no significant effect on reassault. Two significant time-invariant batterer risk factors were (1) severe psychopathology and (2) a history of non-domestic-violence arrest, both measured at intake. Results suggest that batterers' drinking behavior after program intake may provide an important and easily observed marker for risk of reassault and that prediction of reassault with individual risk factors at program intake remains problematical.     

The Future of the European “Social Model” in the Global Economy

This article examines the prospects for European welfare states in the context of globalization. It begins with a critical review of the globalization arguments. While there is some evidence that external constraints make life harder for policymakers seeking positive-sum outcomes, it is the combination of national debt and spending limits, plus domestic tax resistance, that really count in making expenditure-based social and employment policies more difficult in certain countries. In understanding the constraints and opportunities that will shape Europe's welfare future, globalization—crudely understood—is therefore much less influential than many suppose. While EMU has radically diminished national autonomy in exchange rate, monetary policy, and fiscal policy, there are also beneficial consequences for social policy and broader economic management. On the employment and social policy side, initiatives required to match greater flexibility with sustained security are now at the top of the EU agenda, and mechanisms for diffusing best practice across Europe are being put in place. Within this framework, European welfare states must place more emphasis on dynamic equality, being primarily attentive to the worst off, more hospitable to incentive-generating differentiation, and actively vigilant with regard to the openness of opportunity structures.     

Manic-depressive illness in adolescence

The efficacy of lithium carbonate as a treatment for manic-depressive illness has stimulated a reevaluation of the syndrome. In this paper, the authors review the obstacles to timely diagnosis of manic-depressive illness in the adolescent. Three cases are presented demonstrating the usefulness of a unitary concept in which manic-depressive illness is understood and appreciated as having a physiologic basis, manifesting its effects in the total body system. The heterofore diverse and confusing psychological and behavioral symptoms of manic depressive illness in adolescents become intelligible when regarded as secondary phenomena: the psychic experience of the process as filtered through the psychological constitution of the individual adolescent.Supported in part by a grant from Mr. and Mrs. A. Frank Rothschild, Sr.Received her postgraduate training in psychiatry at P&PI.     

Policy implications of climate forecasts for water resources management in the Pacific Northwest

The Columbia River Basin management system suffers from conflicts over water use and allocation, and vulnerability to climate variability that disrupt hydropower, fisheries, irrigation, water supply, and other vital activities. Climate forecasts have the potential to improve water resource management in this system supporting management decisions that decrease its vulnerability to droughts, floods, and other crises related to climate variability. This study shows that despite the potential utility, managers do not use climate forecasts except for background information. The barriers to managers' use of climate forecasts include low forecast skill, lack of interpretation and demonstrated applications, low geographic resolution, inadequate links to climate variability related impacts, and institutional aversion to incorporating new tools into decision making. To realize the potential of climate forecasts for water resources management, we recommend strategies that include technical improvements to the forecast products, and joint efforts between forecast producers and the management community to develop and demonstrate climate forecast applications through reciprocal and iterative education.