Mr. Smith and the economy: the influence of economic conditions on individual legislator voting

This paper estimates the influence of macroeconomic conditions on individual legislator voting over time. Previous work shows legislator voting to be stable over careers. In this paper, voting on an ideological issue space (ADA scores) and a fiscal issue space (NTU scores), from 1976 to 2002, exhibits significant short-term cyclicality with economic conditions. Individual legislators polarize by party in response to rising unemployment, and converge in response to rising inflation. As legislators accumulate tenure, they become more ideologically conservative but more fiscally liberal. Results are also reported on presidential party, divided government, and region. All results are weaker in the Senate than in the House.     

Stimulating Simulations: Making the European Union a Classroom Reality

This article examines the organization and development of the Mid-Atlantic European Union Simulation Consortium (MEUSC), with special emphasis on linking theory to practice within its simulation program. The MEUSC program, initiated in 1993, brings fifteen colleges and universities to Washington, D.C., each December for an intercollegiate experiential learning exercise on the European Union. During the simulation, students meet with professional diplomats from both the United States and Europe, and they engage in consensus-building activities that mirror the decision-making processes of the EU Commission, Parliament, Council of Ministers, and the European Council. As a result, participants are able to refine and enhance a range of academic and practical skills that are keys for success in today's political and business worlds. The authors of this article make special use of a survey that was undertaken to gauge the impact of the simulation on its participants and, thus, its success as an educational venture.     

The Dynamic Prediction of Criminal Recidivism: A Three-wave Prospective Study

A three-wave, prospective panel design was used to assess the extent to which static and dynamic risk factors could predict criminal recidivism in a sample of 136 adult male offenders released from Canadian federal prisons. Static measures were assessed only once, prior to release while dynamic measures were assessed on three separate occasions: pre-release, 1 month, and 3 months post-release. Recidivism was coded during an average of 10.2-month follow-up period (SD = 19.2). A series of Cox regression survival analyses with time-dependent covariates and Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) analyses were conducted to assess predictive validity. Although the combined static and time-dependent dynamic model (AUC = .89, CI = .81–.93) significantly (p < .01) outperformed the pure static model (AUC = .81, CI = .73–.87) the confidence intervals did overlap to some extent. Implications for dynamic risk assessment and management are discussed.

Outcomes from Referring Batterer Program Participants to Mental Health Treatment

A quasi-experimental study was conducted to investigate the impact of referral to supplemental mental health treatment for batterer program participants who screened positive for mental health problems. The principal outcome measure was re-assault reported during a periodic 12-month follow-up with female partners (n = 308). Batterer program completion and other abuse indicators were also considered. Mandatory court referral to mental health treatment produced no significant improvement in batterer program completion, re-assault and other abuse indicators. These results may be influenced by the low compliance to the referral, since the select number of men who did comply with a mental health evaluation (n = 48 of 148) and those who received treatment (n = 28 of 148) did better than those who did not. Simplified referral procedures or integrated treatment services might prove to be a more effective approach.

Prodromal psychosis as an etiology of suicide: a case report and review of the literature

Suicides without apparent antecedent causes present great difficulties for medical examiners and families alike. A case is presented of a young male suicide victim whose antemortem course did not demonstrate apparent psychopathology to either his family or fellow students. A journal written by the decedent was found, however, which revealed extensive ruminations on death, depressive symptomatology, and evidence of possible delusions, and hallucinations. We opine that this represents the prodrome of a psychotic process, possibly schizophrenia, and the decedent's suicide was a response to his awareness of his deteriorating mental status. The prodrome of schizophrenia is a well-described entity that manifests as a decline in social and occupational functioning, along with increasingly bizarre behavior. Prodromal psychosis could represent an explanation for some cases of suicide seemingly without causation.     

The liberal state and the rogue agency: FDA's regulation of drugs for mood disorders, 1950s-1970s

The theory of the liberal state does not generally contemplate the possibility that regulatory agencies will turn into "rogues," regulating against the interests of their clients and, indeed, the public interest. In the years between circa 1955 and 1975 this seems to have happened to one of the prime regulatory agencies of the US federal government: the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Intent upon transforming itself from a traditional "cop" agency to a regulatory giant, the FDA campaigned systematically to bring down some safe and effective drugs. This article concentrates on hearings in the area of psychopharmacology regarding several antianxiety drugs, namely meprobamate (Miltown), chlordiazepoxide (Librium) and diazepam (Valium). In addition, from 1967 to 1973 this regulatory vengefulness occurred on a broad scale in the Drug Efficacy Study Implementation (DESI), an administrative exercise that removed from the market almost half of the psychopharmacopoeia. The article explores possible bureaucratic motives for these actions.     

Balancing regulatory controls and incentives: toward smarter and more transparent oversight in long-term care

Government oversight of long-term care involves inspections of patients' records, limited observations of patients and care practices, reviews of policies and procedures, and distribution of publicly available information. Although many providers bemoan the stifling consequences of excessive regulation, oversight in this area remains a highly legitimate endeavor for the public, though the public has limited trust in the existing regulatory regime. This distrust stems from many sources, not least of which includes considerable variation, both within and across states, in the way government oversight occurs. Reforming the current regulatory structure requires that we regulate "smarter" and more consistently. This means improving and maximizing use of the data already being collected, but it also means explicitly rationalizing the regulator's responsibility to review performance and apply sanctions when necessary. Oversight should more closely resemble consultancy, with regulators sharing information with providers about how to improve quality. Ideally, there needs to be an iterative process in which state inspectors identify performance problems and the nation's quality improvement organizations then help providers design quality improvement interventions to ameliorate the problems identified. The benefits of a revised regulatory approach are especially apparent in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, where more effective oversight would have identified nursing home residents at risk for low-quality care before the disaster occurred while better identifying those in need of evacuation or assistance afterward.     

Ethnic competition,radical Islam,and challenges to stability in the Republic of Dagestan

Previous academic work on stability in Dagestan has focused on two potential cleavages, the republic’s ethnic diversity and the challenge from radical Islamist groups. Using results from a December 2005 survey, and focusing on Dagestan’s six main ethnic groups, this paper investigates attitudes towards the dual topics of the politicization of ethnicity and the relationship between terrorism and Islamism. We find that Dagestanis maintain layered conceptions of identity, and do not attribute violence predominantly to radical Islam in the republic or the wider North Caucasus. Scholars should be aware of Rogers Brubaker’s concept of groupism in analyzing not just ethnic groups, but religious movements as well.