Working with Misspecified Regression Models

Objectives

Conventional statistical modeling in criminology assumes proper model specification. Very strong and unrebutted criticisms have existed for decades. Some respond that although the criticisms are correct, there is for observational data no alternative. In this paper, we provide an alternative.

Methods

We draw on work in econometrics and statistics from several decades ago, updated with the most recent thinking to provide a way to properly work with misspecified models.

Results

We show how asymptotically, unbiased regression estimates can be obtained along with valid standard errors. Conventional statistical inference can follow.

Conclusions

If one is prepared to work with explicit approximations of a “true” model, defensible analyses can be obtained. The alternative is working with models about which all of the usual criticisms hold.

     

Examining Predictors of Parole Release in a Rural Female Jail Population

Parole has long been a linchpin of correctional practices but few studies have examined discretionary parole release in a female population. The current study examines factors, both static risk and dynamic needs, that influence parole decision making in a rural female jail population. The researchers collected data on parole releases from a rural county jail over a 3-year period beginning in 2012 (N?=?138). Offenders obtained a recommendation for parole release from a reentry assessment team that met at the jail each month to evaluate cases for parole eligibility. Logistic regression was used to explain variance in the factors considered by the reentry assessment team and it was evident that both static risk factors and dynamic needs play a role in discretionary parole release. We also examined obstacles or challenges that female offenders face when paroling to a rural location. Several policy recommendation related to the study are addressed.     

Contraceptive embarrassment and contraceptive behavior among young single women

The objective of this paper was to determine factors predictive of contraceptive embarrassment and to determine the relationship of contraceptive embarrassment to contraceptive use among young unmarried females. Contraceptive embarrassment was measured by an eight-item scale (a=0.88]. Data were obtained from 265 nonvirgin high school and university females who were currently dating. Using simple multiple regression, 30% of the variance of the embarrassment scale was explained, with the most important predictors being parental attitude to premarital intercourse and sexual guilt. Other significant predictors were attitude to planning ahead to use contraception, perveived difficulty in obtaining contraceptive devices, and peer attitudes toward premarital intercourse. The embarrassment scale had significant correlations with contraceptive use.Sponsorship from Health and Welfare Canada through Family Planning Grant No. 4470-5-10 provided for the data collection, and sponsorship from the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, DH&W, Contract No. N01-HD-92809 provided for the data analysis.Received his Ph.D. from Department of Sociology, Iowa State University and is interested in the sociology of adolescence, particularly dating, sexual relations, and use of contraception.     

Multi-agency approaches in ‘criminogenic’ settings: the case of the Amsterdam Red Light District

This paper assesses the empirical evidence on multi-agency collaboration to reduce crime, uphold justice and improve safety in the so-called ‘Red Light District’ in the city center of Amsterdam, which has been a high crime area for decades. Three periods are analyzed: crime on the streets (1980s–1996); organized crime behind the front doors (1996–2007); and reconquering the Red Light District (2007–2011). The paper analyzes shifts in the definition and framing of central crime problems, causal assumptions, policy assumptions, and evidence on multi-agency collaboration and outcomes. Alongside positive outcomes, all three periods contain evidence on how difficult it is to forge and sustain alliances between government agencies; and to coordinate a shared focus on a single area and on a single topic. Furthermore, the final outcomes of these efforts are hard to measure with the exception of visible street crime. Finally, the paper contributes to the literature on Third Party Policing and multi-agency collaboration by looking beyond the police as the central actor and by widening the predominant instrumental focus to normative and political issues such as changing norms, priorities, and increasing and decreasing internal and external support for certain policy lines and actions.     

Solace for the Frustrations of Silent Citizenship: the Case of Epicureanism

Insofar as no democratic society can fully realize norms of free and equal citizenship, citizens in such regimes are likely to experience some degree of discontent with their political lives. This raises a second purpose for democratic theory beyond the usual focus on improving democratic institutions: the psychological issue of how ordinary citizens might find solace in the face of disappointment. Democratic theory is capable of providing solace because egalitarian commitments – equality, free speech, solidarity, and self-sufficiency – have a double potential: they not only ground efforts to democratize institutions, but when sublimated in apolitical form also have the capacity to generate a transcendence of the political form itself. In this essay, I pursue both ideas – the need for solace and egalitarianism's ability to provide it – through analysis of the way Epicureanism may have functioned for the ordinary, plebeian citizens in late Republican Rome.     

Identification of the veterinary sedative medetomidine in combination with opioids and xylazine in Maryland

Public health, public safety, and forensic science personnel continue to face the emergence of new compounds into the drug market. While focus is often put on the detection of new analogs of known illicit drugs, monitoring the changes in cutting agents and other compounds can be equally as important. Over the last year, near real-time monitoring of the drug supply in Maryland has been completed through a public health–public safety partnership whereby residue from suspected drug packaging or used paraphernalia is collected and analyzed. Through this project, we have recently detected the presence of the veterinary sedative medetomidine in a small number of samples. The presence of medetomidine has been identified in both public health and law enforcement samples and in the presence of fentanyl and xylazine—another veterinary sedative that has been widely observed over the last year. While the rate at which medetomidine has been detected remains low, it is concerning and worthy of continued monitoring.     

“Juvenile Drug Courts and Recidivism: Results from a Multisite Outcome Study”

This study reports findings from a study of nine juvenile drug courts (JDCs) from across the US. A quasi-experimental design, with one-to-one matching on possible confounders and sociodemographics, was used for the outcome assessment (n?=?1372). Baseline and outcome data were drawn from justice system records. Although there is variation across sites and, to some extent, outcomes, these JDCs were generally ineffective in reducing recidivism. Similar findings have emerged in other recent studies of JDCs. Given the results of this study and others, it is essential that juvenile courts work to improve the effectiveness of JDCs by increasing adherence to known principles of effective intervention.     

After the halcyon days: the anti-/alterglobalization movement and international organizations, 1996–2011

Why are relations between non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and international organizations (IOs) sometimes conflictual and other times collaborative? This article evaluates hypotheses in the international relations and social movements literatures with reference to relations between NGOs associated with the anti-/alterglobalization movement and multilateral economic institutions (MEIs). Drawing on an original database and interviews with MEI and NGO staff members, the article shows that attributes of NGOs – including NGO budgets, ideology, and organizational structure – rather than the political or economic environment better account not only for an overall increase in collaboration with IOs since the late 1990s, but also for a growing divergence among NGOs regarding the acceptability of such collaboration.     

Enhancing the Legitimacy of Local Government Pandemic Influenza Planning through Transparency and Public Engagement

Ethical issues in an influenza pandemic often require local government officials to make unprecedented, complex decisions. Effective planning with significant input from key community stakeholders is required well ahead of time in order to anticipate and mitigate a serious health crisis. The author evaluates the pandemic plans of 28 large cities across the United States using criteria derived from guidelines issued by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. The analysis reveals that planning legitimacy can be enhanced by wider transparency and civic engagement, greater opportunities for the inclusion of all stakeholders in decision making, mock community‐wide exercises and drills, as well as more public access to comprehensive emergency planning information.