LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION AND POVERTY STATUS AMONG RURAL AND URBAN WOMEN WHO HEAD FAMILIES

This paper examines differentials in the propensity to be living in poverty among women who head families with minor children. Characteristics of mothers are examined for four subgroups: residents of central cities, suburbs, small towns, and rural areas. Using Public Use Microdata Sample data from the 1980 Census, results are presented using Multiple Classification Analysis. After controlling for the effects of mother's race, marital status, education, work status, and ages of her children, single mothers in central cities and smaIl towns have the highest rates of poverty (48% and 45% respectively), closely followed by those in rural areas (41%). Suburban single mothers are least likely to live in poverty (33%).
Results show that employment status is the strongest predictor of poverty, followed by education and marital status. A subanalysis of women who work full-time reveals major differences in earned income, with suburban women earning the highest incomes, followed by women living in central cities, then rural areas and, finally, small towns. A decomposition of this difference reveals that about two-thirds of the difference is due to pay scales, and only one-third due to the structure of occupational opportunity.     

POLICY MODELING TO SUPPORT ADMINISTRATIVE DECISIONMAKING ON THE NEW YORK STATE HIV TESTING LAW

A recent New York law requires medical providers to offer HIV tests as part of routine care. We developed a system dynamics simulation model of the HIV testing and care system to help administrators understand the law's potential epidemic impact, resource needs, strategies to improve implementation, and appropriate outcome indicators for future policy evaluations once postlaw data become available. Policy modeling allowed us to synthesize information from numerous sources including quantitative administrative data sets and practitioners’ content expertise, structure the information to be viewed both numerically and visually, and organize consensus for decisionmaking purposes. This case illustrates how policy modeling can provide an integrated framework for administrators to examine policy problems in complex systems, particularly when data time lags limit pre–post comparisons and key outcomes cannot be measured directly.     

The implementation of complex social policy: Institutional layering and unintended consequences in the National Disability Insurance Scheme

In this article, we identify the unfolding unintended consequences which flow from one instance of policy layering in Australia's National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS). We show how use of a causal diagram, which highlights feedback loops and emergent properties, to map complex chains of causal factors can assist policy scholars and policy practitioners to understand the likely direction of change and possible responses. In the case of Australia's National Disability Insurance Scheme, our analysis suggests that the likely direction of change will work against two of the fundamental design features of the NDIS: providing participants with more choice and control, and ensuring all eligible Australians are able to access appropriate services and supports regardless of where they live. Our analysis points to the use of price regulation as the site of potential intervention because of the role it plays in subsequent feedback loops and the development of the two, unwelcome, emergent properties.     

The construction of allegedly abused children’s narratives in Scottish criminal courts

This study investigated lawyers’ use of social narratives surrounding child sexual abuse when questioning 66 5- to 17-year-old alleged victims in Scottish criminal courts using a mixed-methods approach. Thematic analysis found that the use of beliefs and stereotypes varied depending upon the lawyers’ role (defense/prosecution), children’s age, and the alleged victim-defendant relationship. These findings were investigated further using narrative analysis, which showed that, with increasing age and decreasing familiarity with defendants, narratives increasingly focused on the characteristics and actions of the victims rather than the defendants. Older children contributed more to narratives than younger children, but their contributions were only incorporated into the prosecutors’ narratives. Defense lawyers adopted more victim-blaming tactics as the narratives developed. Findings suggest that the criminal justice system, practitioners, and researchers must do more to recognize and guard against the reinforcement of stereotypes that may influence public rhetoric and jury decision-making.     

The admissibility and persuasiveness of expert evidence

Parenting plan evaluators are expert witnesses who offer their opinion. Courts in common law jurisdictions generally do not accept evidence of an opinion as it is not considered to be reliable evidence from which to establish a fact. An exception to that general principle is expert opinion evidence. In short, an opinion from a person with specialized knowledge or expertise about the area in which they are an expert may be sufficiently reliable to form an evidentiary basis from which to make a finding of fact, provided the opinion meets certain criteria. These criteria will be discussed in this article, as well as what is relevant, reliable and persuasive evidence. The relevant legal principles will be examined in an historical and contemporary, theoretical and practical context. The authors reflect on their considerable experience as consumers of expert evidence and apply this to parenting plan evaluations, as well as considering future challenges in the field.