From a Counter-Society to a Counter-State Movement: Jemaah Islamiyah According to PUPJI

The General Guide for the Struggle of Al-Jama’ah Al-Islamiyah (Pedoman Umum Perjuangan Al-Jama’ah Al-Islamiyah)—commonly known under its acronym PUPJI—is an essential document for understanding Southeast Asia's most deadly terror network. Issued by Jemaah Islamiyah's Central Executive Council (Qiyadah Markaziyah), it outlines the group's administrative structure and guiding religious principles, in addition to providing insights into its organizational development, membership recruitment, and operational strategy. From the time Jemaah Islamiyah was established on 1 January 1993—as the result of an internal split within the Darul Islam (DI) movement—until the time it first engaged in terrorist activities—with the Medan church bombings on 28 May 2000—the group was structured and managed in accordance with this handbook. To understand Jemaah Islamiyah, therefore, one must understand PUPJI. ¹ 1. A copy of the original PUPJI document was obtained and translated by the International Center for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR) at the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. The author first reviewed and analyzed the document while working as Manager for Research at ICPVTR. The results of this study can be found in Rohan Gunaratna, Elena Pavlova, and Muhammad Hassan Haniff, “A Preliminary Analysis of the General Guide For the Struggle of Jemaah Islamiyah,” ICPVTR, IDSS, February 2004.      

Forecasting the 2010 general election using aggregate local election data

The paper presents a revised method for estimating national vote shares using aggregate data from local government by-elections. The model was originally developed to forecast the annual outcome of local elections but was adapted in time to provide an accurate forecast of Labour’s landslide victory at the 1997 general election. However, over the past decade the changing pattern of party competition which has seen parties becoming more selective about which elections to contest has led to more elections being excluded from the modelling because they failed to meet the exacting criteria that all three major parties, Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrats, had contested both the by-election and the previous main election, normally held in May. Relaxing these criteria, although increasing the number of available cases would adversely affect the forecast, over- or under-estimating party votes. Instead, the revised method overcomes the problem of differential competition by estimating vote shares for parties that contest one but not both elections. A further innovation is the calculation of a weighted moving quarterly average which takes account of the number of days elapsed between the by-election date and the date of forecast. Using the new method we provide estimates for likely party shares for the 2010 general election.     

Diminishing Marginal Returns to Computer-Assisted Learning

The previous expansion of EdTech as a substitute for traditional learning around the world, the recent full-scale substitution due to COVID-19, and potential future shifts to blended approaches suggest that it is imperative to understand input substitutability between in-person and online learning. We explore input substitutability in education by employing a novel randomized controlled trial that varies dosage of computer-assisted learning (CAL) as a substitute for traditional learning through homework. Moving from zero to a low level of CAL, we find positive substitutability of CAL for traditional learning. Moving from a lower to a higher level of CAL, substitutability changes and is either neutral or even negative. The estimates suggest that a blended approach of CAL and traditional learning is optimal. The findings have direct implications for the rapidly expanding use of educational technology worldwide prior to, during, and after the pandemic.