The debate on World Dynamics: A response to Nordhaus

In a recent paper published in the Economic Journal, Professor William D. Nordhaus of Yale University reviewed World Dynamics by Jay W. Forrester. In his criticism, Nordhaus signals three serious problems and several additional questionable assumptions of sufficient importance to undermine the usefulness of Forrester's book. However, a careful examination of his analysis shows that each point made by Nordhaus rests on a misunderstanding of World Dynamics, a misuse of empirical data, or an inability to analyze properly the dynamic behavior of the model by static equilibrium methods.The three serious problems raised by Nordhaus concern the assumptions that connect industrialization to net birth rates in World Dynamics, the representation of technology and production within the world model, and the impact of prices on global resource use. The analysis presented here refutes the Nordhaus arguments and shows that World Dynamics is consistent with his references to real-world data on population, production, and capital accumulation.This paper is a response to William D. Nordhaus, World Dynamics: Measurement Without Data, published in the Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, December 1973. An earlier, unpublished, version of the Nordhaus paper, bearing the same title, was widely circulated hand-tohand within the United States, Canada, and Europe. A response to the original Nordhaus paper (System Dynamics Group Memorandum D-1736-4) was written in February 1973 and is available from Jay W. Forrester, Alfred P. Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Mass. 02139. The present paper, a revised version of the earlier response, deals with several new or modified arguments contained in the Economic Journal article by Nordhaus.     

Does ink age inside of a pen cartridge?

In questioned document examination and ink dating, it has been assumed that the ink inside of a pen cartridge does not begin aging until the ink is dispensed onto paper. Positive ion laser desorption (LD) mass spectra were obtained of ink-on-paper samples containing methyl violet, from new and old pens. Mass spectral studies with methyl violet have established the mechanism for how the dye degrades over time, and have provided structural information concerning the dye's degradation products. This information was used as an indication of the relative age of ink on paper. The LD mass spectrum of the ink from a new pen was indicative of "new" ink, whereas the spectra of the ink found in some older pens may appear to be either new or old. The ink from most of the old pens studied appears not to have aged, supporting the common assumption, whereas other ink samples produced "aged" ink spectra, suggesting otherwise.     

Individual Conceptions of Justice and Their Potential for Explaining Proenvironmental Decision Making

In Germany, community-based climate-protective decisions were measured on micro up to macro levels, and the role justice appraisals play in decision-making was investigated in comparison to responsibility-related and self-centered motives. Results reveal that in the field of carbon dioxide emission, gaps between those who are gaining profits and those who have to suffer from negative side effects are recognized by the community on a national as well as an international level. For gaining behavioral impact, the perception of these gaps needs to be regarded under a moral perspective and considered unjust. These justice appraisals are shown to be stable predictors of climate-protective commitments, even when powerful responsibility-related variables were included in the regression analyses. Self-centered motives proved to be of minor importance.     

Fair Trial Rights and the European Community's Fight Against Fraud

The article surveys action taken by the European Community to combat fraud affecting its financial interests, focusing on the development of investigative authority granted to OLAF, the European‘Office Pour La Lutte Anti Fraude’ and its impact on the procedural rights of the alleged defrauder. It shows that the involvement of OLAF can be crucial for a national fraud investigation and subsequent criminal prosecution and that it meets the criteria set out by the Strasbourg organs for the applicability of Article 6 ECH. The article explores whether the legal sources governing the activities of OLAF or national—or rather, Community—law guarantee sufficient protection for the alleged defrauder and thus pay respect to principles arising from the rule of law in law enforcement. It is shown that general principles of Community law, which were mostly established in antitrust law, may provide a certain protection for the suspect, but may not protect him in all regards. It is thus argued that, in the long run, it will be necessary to provide special fair‐trial rights which offer protection to alleged defrauders from those infringements arising out of the specific features of a Community investigation.     

Comparison of computed radiography and multi-detector computed tomography in the detection of post mortem metacarpal index

This paper presents a disposable biosensor to detect serum alcohol concentration. The proposed biosensor is fabricated using the cross-linking method to immobilize Alcohol Dehydrogenase (ADH) and Nicotinamide Adenine Dinucleotide (NAD(+)) on the screen-printed electrode modified with Meldola's Blue (MB) absorbed on Nafion. It is based on the electrocatalytic properties of MB as an electron transfer mediator, which can catalyze the oxidation of NADH to NAD(+) at a low oxidizing potential, thus avoiding interferences due to the presence of oxidizable substances in the real serum samples. The biosensor response for alcohol is investigated in terms of pH, buffer solution, temperature and some interferents. It presents the good specificity, reproducibility, stability, accuracy and provides a fast response. The biosensor has been satisfactorily used for the measurement of serum alcohol.     

White collar crimes and casino gambling: looking for empirical links to forgery,embezzlement, and fraud

This study investigates the alleged link between casino gambling and arrests for the commission of the “white collar” crimes of forgery, fraud, and embezzlement. The rapid expansion of casino gaming venues in recent years has been said to have increased the incidence of white collar crimes by casino customers who get themselves in financial trouble by overspending at casinos (given the median age of 47 for casino patrons and that 41% hold white collar jobs). This study investigates this question by using several kinds of data to examine arrest and offender trends, using a follow-up period of up to 10 years to assess long-term impacts. The results indicate that, comparing pre- and post-casino average annual arrests for embezzlement, forgery, and fraud, trends show a general decrease in arrests in casino jurisdictions, although embezzlement arrests rose in Connecticut and in nationwide statistics. An assessment of the reasons offered from interviews with people convicted of embezzlement and fraud are presented to examine the extent to which gambling is a causal factor.

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Success on Their Own Terms: Youths' Perspectives on Successful Foster Care

Foster care is an integral component of the child welfare system. However, little is known about factors germane to conceptualizing successful foster care. This study utilized Concept Mapping (CM) to delineate a conceptual domain for what success in foster care means from the perspective of those most impacted: foster youth. CM couples multi-dimensional scaling with hierarchical cluster analyses to form factors relevant to an area of study. Pictorial representations of the data were generated using the Concept Systems software. Results indicate that youth conceptualize success based on several distinct domains. The final analyses yielded a multi-cluster solution, or Concept Map.