Institutional Foundations of Legislative Speech

Participation in legislative debates is among the most visible activities of members of parliament (MPs), yet debates remain an understudied form of legislative behavior. This study introduces a comparative theory of legislative speech with two major implications. First, party rules for debates are endogenous to strategic considerations and will favor either party leadership control or backbencher MP exposure. Second, in some systems, backbenchers will receive less time on the floor as their ideological distance to the party leadership increases. This leads to speeches that do not reflect true party cohesion. Where party reputation matters less for reelection, leaders allow dissidents to express their views on the floor. We demonstrate the implications of our model for different political systems and present evidence using speech data from Germany and the United Kingdom.     

Cycles in Politics: Wavelet Analysis of Political Time Series

Spectral analysis and ARMA models have been the most common weapons of choice for the detection of cycles in political time series. Controversies about cycles, however, tend to revolve around an issue that both techniques are badly equipped to address: the possibility of irregular cycles without fixed periodicity throughout the entire time series. This has led to two main consequences. On the one hand, proponents of cyclical theories have often dismissed established statistical techniques. On the other hand, proponents of established techniques have dismissed the possibility of cycles without fixed periodicity. Wavelets allow the detection of transient and coexisting cycles and structural breaks in periodicity. In this article, we present the tools of wavelet analysis and apply them to the study of two lingering puzzles in the political science literature: the existence of cycles in election returns in the United States and in the severity of major power wars.     

What Wins Votes: Why Some Politicians Opt Out of Clientelism

In a context where clientelism is widespread, why do some politicians choose not to condition the delivery of goods and services to citizens on individual political behavior? I argue that the answer to this question lies in the heretofore unexamined electoral costs of clientelism: clientelism decreases support from nonpoor constituents even while it generates votes from among the poor. Taking into account these costs and other factors that shape politician incentives, I posit that the interaction between political competition and poverty will explain variation in clientelism. I test this claim using an original measure of clientelism that assesses mayoral involvement in social policy implementation in Argentine municipalities. The results of statistical analysis suggest that high levels of political competition are compatible with clientelism when poverty is also high. Only when high competition is coupled with low rates of poverty does clientelism decline.     

Gold-plating of Mylar lift films to capitalize on surface enhanced Raman spectroscopy for chemical extraction of drug residues

The method of residue extraction through electrostatic lifting provides a distinctive mode of performing ultra-trace analysis. These lifts provide a medium for analyte extraction via nanomanipulation-coupled to nanospray ionization-mass spectrometry (NSI-MS). This method of extraction can be coupled to Raman spectroscopy for supplemental verification of analytes using surface enhanced Raman scattering (SERS). The gold surface used for SERS provides an enhanced effect on peak signal intensity allowing ultra-trace amounts to be detected more effectively. The aim of this research is to utilize gold-coated films with electrostatic lifting in order to collect latent materials and analyze chemicals of interest contained in them via SERS.     

DEVELOPMENTAL PATTERNS OF ALCOHOL USE IN RELATION TO THE PERSISTENCE AND DESISTANCE OF SERIOUS VIOLENT OFFENDING AMONG AFRICAN AMERICAN AND CAUCASIAN YOUNG MEN*

This study examined the association of alcohol use with the persistence and desistance of serious violent offending among African American and Caucasian young men from adolescence into emerging adulthood. Five violence groups were defined: nonviolent, late‐onsetters, desisters, persisters, and one‐time offenders. We examined alcohol use trajectories for these groups spanning 12 through 24/25 years of age using a four‐piecewise linear growth model s 12–14, 14–18, 18–21, and 21–24/25 years of age. The persisters and desisters reported the highest levels of drinking at 13 years of age. From 14 to 18 years old, however, the late‐onsetters showed a higher rate of increase in drinking, compared with the persisters and desisters. Starting at 18 years of age, the desisters’ drinking trajectory started to resemble that of the nonviolent group, who showed the highest rate of increase in drinking during emerging adulthood. By 24/25 years of age, the persisters could not be distinguished from the late‐onsetters, but they were lower than the nonviolent and one‐timer groups in terms of their drinking. At 24/25 years old, the desisters were not significantly different from the other violence groups, although they seemed most similar to the nonviolent and one‐timer groups. We found no evidence that the association between drinking and violence differed for African Americans and Caucasians. The findings suggest that yearly changes in alcohol use could provide important clues for preventing violent offending.     

A Y‐Chromosomal Haplotype with Two Short Tandem Repeat Mutations*

Abstract:  The male‐specific Y‐chromosomal short tandem repeat (STR) is a useful tool in forensic casework. The Y haplotype comprised of 16 loci, which is amplified simultaneously by AmpFlSTR^® Yfiler^TM PCR kit and provides strong exculpatory evidence in individual identification. We reported a rare Y‐STR profile with a null allele at the DYS448 locus and an off‐ladder allele at the DYS456 locus, when genotyping material from a vaginal swab in an alleged rape case. Sequence analysis revealed that the DYS448 null allele was a true type of null allele because of a total deletion of 11 upstream repeats and 9 bp of the N₄₂ region, and there were numerous primer binding site mutations as well. The amplicon of the DYS456 locus was a small 92‐bp fragment that was off‐ladder, and sequencing analysis showed that there were only 10 repeats (AGAT)₁₀. This Y chromosome haplotype that was comprised of two variations provided helpful evidence for personal identification.     

Differential outcomes of court-supervised substance abuse treatment among California parolees and probationers

To explore the effectiveness of court-supervised drug treatment for California parolees, offender characteristics, treatment experiences, and outcomes were examined and contrasted to those of probationers. The analysis used statewide administrative data on 4,507 parolees and 22,701 probationers referred to treatment by Proposition 36 during fiscal year 2006-2007. Compared with probationers, parolee problems were more severe at treatment entry, more were treated in residential settings, treatment retention was shorter, and fewer completed treatment. Regarding outcomes, fewer parolees were successful at treatment discharge and more recidivated over 12-months post admission. Both groups improved in many areas by treatment discharge, but improvements were generally smaller among parolees. Significant interaction effects indicated that parolees benefited from residential care and more treatment days, even after controlling for covariates. Court-supervised drug treatment for parolees can "work;" however, parolees have more frequent and diverse needs, and their outcomes are enhanced by more intensive treatment. Findings suggest methods for optimizing the effectiveness of criminal-justice-supervised programs for treating drug-dependent offenders.     

An Evaluation of Six Brief Interventions that Target Drug-Related Problems in Correctional Populations

Finding brief effective treatments for criminal justice populations is a major public need. The CJ-DATS Targeted Intervention for Corrections (TIC), which consists of six brief interventions (Communication, Anger, Motivation, Criminal Thinking, Social Networks, and HIV/Sexual Health), were tested in separate federally-funded randomized control studies. In total, 1,573 criminal justice-involved individuals from 20 correction facilities participated (78% males; 54% white). Multi-level repeated measures analyses found significant gains in knowledge, attitudes, and psychosocial functioning (criteria basic to Knowledge, Attitude, and Practices (KAP) and TCU Treatment Process Models). While improvements were less consistent in criminal thinking, overall evidence supported efficacy for the TIC interventions.     

Perpetrator programmes for partner violence: Are they based on ideology or evidence?

Purpose. The ideologically based view of intimate partner violence has traditionally influenced policy and practice in modern western nations and dominated cross‐national research and practice. This review considers the validity of the position statement of a British organization responsible for accrediting many male perpetrator programmes in the statutory, voluntary, and private sector as an example of this ideological influence. Method. The position statement, informed by the patriarchal view of partner violence, is evaluated using empirical evidence from various branches of the social sciences, including psychology, that have not been guided by the patriarchal view. Results. Overwhelming empirical evidence is presented, which refutes ideologically driven assumptions that have been put forward to guide current practice and evaluation of it. Conclusions. This review highlights the need to investigate intimate partner violence from a scientific and gender‐inclusive perspective. The implications for psychological practice are discussed.     

The Law Applicable to Divorce as Test Ground for Enhanced Cooperation

Enhanced cooperation was introduced in the Treaty of Amsterdam (1997). Despite a lot of academic ink being spilled, the instrument had, until recently, never been applied in practice. In June 2010, the Council reached consensus on authorising a group of Member States to pursue, in the framework of enhanced cooperation, common rules in the area of the law applicable to divorce. The present paper critically analyses this first precedent. For that purpose, the background to the policy area will be explored. Subsequently, the desirability of enhanced cooperation shall be assessed. Finally, the content of Rome III, and its effects upon Member States not participating in the initiative, will be analysed. The paper will attempt to formulate an answer to the question whether enhanced cooperation should be the new approach to harmonisation of family‐related Private International Law.