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261.
Larry L. Orr Robert B. Olsen Stephen H. Bell Ian Schmid Azim Shivji Elizabeth A. Stuart 《Journal of policy analysis and management》2019,38(4):978-1003
Evidence‐based policy at the local level requires predicting the impact of an intervention to inform whether it should be adopted. Increasingly, local policymakers have access to published research evaluating the effectiveness of policy interventions from national research clearinghouses that review and disseminate evidence from program evaluations. Through these evaluations, local policymakers have a wealth of evidence describing what works, but not necessarily where. Multisite evaluations may produce unbiased estimates of the average impact of an intervention in the study sample and still produce inaccurate predictions of the impact for localities outside the sample for two reasons: (1) the impact of the intervention may vary across localities, and (2) the evaluation estimate is subject to sampling error. Unfortunately, there is relatively little evidence on how much the impacts of policy interventions vary from one locality to another and almost no evidence on the implications of this variation for the accuracy with which the local impact of adopting an intervention can be predicted using findings from an evaluation in other localities. In this paper, we present a set of methods for quantifying the accuracy of the local predictions that can be obtained using the results of multisite randomized trials and for assessing the likelihood that prediction errors will lead to errors in local policy decisions. We demonstrate these methods using three evaluations of educational interventions, providing the first empirical evidence of the ability to use multisite evaluations to predict impacts in individual localities—i.e., the ability of “evidence‐based policy” to improve local policy. 相似文献
262.
John W. Patty Constanza F. Schibber Elizabeth Maggie Penn Brian F. Crisp 《American journal of political science》2019,63(3):563-576
To the degree that voters care about competence, expertise, and other valence characteristics of their representatives and political parties care about winning elections, parties have an incentive to signal that their legislators have such characteristics. We construct a model of parties, motivated by both reelection and by policy, that attempt to signal individual incumbents' valences to voters through the assignment of these members to positions of authority. The model illustrates how electorally motivated party leaders will have an incentive to promote less competent incumbents than they would if voters did not make inferences from promotion decisions. We derive the model's empirical implications and test them with original data on the careers of Chilean senators serving between 1998 and 2013. In support of the model's insights, we find that promotion to a leadership position is an effective signal to voters only if the promoted incumbent has extreme views relative to the party. 相似文献
263.
264.
Surgically implanted devices have become increasingly common in modern skeletal material. Therefore, having the knowledge of the variety of implanted orthopedic devices, their manufacturer, and where to find and how to use identifying numbers in such implants can assist in the identification process when traditional methods are not applicable. Orthopedic device manufacturers are required by the Safe Medical Devices Act of 1990 and the FDA Modernization Act of 1997 to track permanently implanted devices. Manufacturer information on orthopedic devices associates the orthopedic surgeon who implanted the device with the patient. By providing a current list of the most common orthopedic device manufacturers in the U.S.A. and the associated contact information, investigators will have updated tools for the individuation process. Despite numerous complicating factors regarding how device data are tracked, the information presented here can assist forensic professionals with obtaining presumptive and/or positive identifications. 相似文献
265.
For comparative glass examinations, the refractive indices (RIs) of recovered glass fragments are often compared to a test interval defined by measurements from a broken glass object. RI measurements from five modern float glasses were used via resampling to assess the frequencies of false exclusion errors for eight test criteria as functions of the number of measurements. The test criteria were based on ranges, fixed intervals, and multiples of standard deviations of the known source measurements. The observed error rates for the eight tests studied are between zero and c. 35%, depending upon the match criteria, the number of measurements, and the RI distribution for a glass source. The results of this study can be used to predict the false exclusion rate for a test criterion under a given set of conditions or to select test criteria that result in a desired error rate for these typical sheet glasses. 相似文献
266.
Much of the mental health, substance use, and educational programming within a particular women's prison in the southwestern United States promotes individual choice and agency. Incarcerated women from rural areas are told that their ability to succeed outside of prison is primarily dependent upon their personal choices. Comparably little attention is given to preparing women for their upcoming release or to overcoming structural barriers that could undermine successful reentry within rural communities. As a result, these returning citizens, many of whom grapple with mental illness and alcohol or drug dependence, blame themselves for their inability to surmount these barriers. In this qualitative research, we draw upon the perspectives of 99 incarcerated women to clarify how ideologies of individual choice promulgated in reentry pedagogy clash with contextual factors within rural communities to derail the reentry process. We also consider community reentry from Amartya Sen's capabilities framework and discuss how this model could inform needed interventions. 相似文献
267.
268.
There is strong evidence that early pubertal timing is associated with adolescent problem behaviors. However, there has been
limited investigation of the mechanisms or developmental relationships. The present study examined longitudinal models incorporating
pubertal timing, delinquency, and sexual activity in a sample of 454 adolescents (9–13 years old at enrollment; 47% females).
Participants were seen for three assessments approximately 1 year apart. Characteristics of friendship networks (older friends,
male friends, older male friends) were examined as mediators. Structural equation modeling was used to test these associations
as well as temporal relationships between sexual activity and delinquency. Results showed that early pubertal timing at Time
1 was related to more sexual activity at Time 2, which was related to higher delinquency at Time 3, a trend mediation effect.
None of the friendship variables mediated these associations. Gender or maltreatment status did not moderate the meditational
pathways. The results also supported the temporal sequence of sexual activity preceding increases in delinquency. These findings
reveal that early maturing adolescents may actively seek out opportunities to engage in sexual activity which appears to be
risk for subsequent delinquency. 相似文献
269.
Wesley G. Jennings MiRang Park Elizabeth A. Tomsich Angela R. Gover Ronald L. Akers 《American Journal of Criminal Justice》2011,36(2):188-206
Research has recently begun to identify an overlap of involvement in offending and victimization and a shared commonality
of risk factors for both outcomes. Despite this growing body of evidence, this research has yet to have been extended to dating
violence in general and in cross cultural samples specifically. Recognizing these gaps in the literature, the current study
examines the correlation between psychological and physical dating violence perpetration and victimization among a large sample
of South Korean college students. Results from a series of bivariate probit models suggest that there is a strong degree of
overlap between dating violence perpetration and victimization and that social learning theory and self-control theory cannot
explain away the overlap. Study limitations and implications are also discussed. 相似文献
270.
Kally J. Nelson Cara Laney Nicci Bowman Fowler Eric D. Knowles Deborah Davis Elizabeth F. Loftus 《Legal and Criminological Psychology》2011,16(1):62-74
The current study investigated the effects of change blindness and crime severity on eyewitness identification accuracy. This research, involving 717 subjects, examined change blindness during a simulated criminal act and its effects on subjects' accuracy for identifying the perpetrator in a photospread. Subjects who viewed videos designed to induce change blindness were more likely to falsely identify the innocent actor relative to those who viewed control videos. Crime severity did not influence detection of change; however, it did have an effect on eyewitness accuracy. Subjects who viewed a more severe crime ($500 theft) made fewer errors in perpetrator identification than those who viewed a less severe crime ($5 theft). This research has theoretical implications for our understanding of change blindness and practical implications for the real‐world problem of faulty eyewitness testimony. 相似文献