Is Gun Violence Contagious? A Spatiotemporal Test

Objectives

Existing theories of gun violence predict stable spatial concentrations and contagious diffusion of gun violence into surrounding areas. Recent empirical studies have reported confirmatory evidence of such spatiotemporal diffusion of gun violence. However, existing space/time interaction tests cannot readily distinguish spatiotemporal clustering from spatiotemporal diffusion. This leaves as an open question whether gun violence actually is contagious or merely clusters in space and time. Compounding this problem, gun violence is subject to considerable measurement error with many nonfatal shootings going unreported to police.

Methods

Using point process data from an acoustical gunshot locator system and a combination of Bayesian spatiotemporal point process modeling and classical space/time interaction tests, this paper distinguishes between clustered but non-diffusing gun violence and clustered gun violence resulting from diffusion.

Results

This paper demonstrates that contemporary urban gun violence in a metropolitan city does diffuse in space and time, but only slightly.

Conclusions

These results suggest that a disease model for the spread of gun violence in space and time may not be a good fit for most of the geographically stable and temporally stochastic process observed. And that existing space/time tests may not be adequate tests for spatiotemporal gun violence diffusion models.

     

Security Governance and Networks: New Theoretical Perspectives in Transatlantic Security

The end of the Cold War has not only witnessed the rise of new transnational threats such as terrorism, crime, proliferation and civil war; it has also seen the growing role of non-state actors in the provision of security in Europe and North America. Two concepts in particular have been used to describe these transformations: security governance and networks. However, the differences and potential theoretical utility of these two concepts for the study of contemporary security have so far been under-examined. This article seeks to address this gap. It proposes that security governance can help to explain the transformation of Cold War security structures, whereas network analysis is particularly useful for understanding the relations and interactions between public and private actors in the making and implementation of national and international security policies.     

Intellectual and developmental disabilities and Ontario’s forensic inpatient system: a population-based cohort study

Individuals with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD) in forensic inpatient beds are both complex and understudied. Previous studies have been limited and largely based on smaller clinical samples. We used data from a population-based cohort of Ontario adults with IDD (H-CARDD cohort, n?=?66,000) to describe their prevalence in forensic inpatient beds during 2005–2015 and compare their demographic and clinical profiles with non-IDD forensic patients. Results show that forensic patients with IDD and without IDD have similar profiles, with the exception that patients with IDD are more likely to have a psychiatric disorder and to be younger, rural, and have high or very high morbidity. Strong support was found for disproportionate admission: individuals with IDD are 12.2% of forensic inpatients but only 0.8% of the general population (d?=?1.57). Support for disproportionate utilization was less dramatic and mixed. Little difference was found in terms of the per cent of longer-stay (treatment) admissions or multiple forensic admissions; however, patients with IDD did have longer number of bed days over 10 years (averaging 220.6 days more, d?=?0.28). A better understanding of the barriers to discharge for individuals with IDD will support implementation of appropriate pathways out of the hospital.     

An Expanding Culture of Control? The Municipal Administrative Sanctions Act in Belgium

This article provides an in-depth study of the Act on Municipal Administrative Sanctions 1999 (MAS), which is the first major piece of legislation regulating antisocial behaviour in Belgium. MAS provides municipalities with an instrument to sanction antisocial behaviour and conduct perceived to disturb public order. The article uses Garland’s (2001) thesis on the culture of control to analyse whether MAS has led to increased government control and the exclusion of significant groups of the population. The research is based on a multiple case study in which the application of MAS was analysed over a 25-year period of security policies in Belgium (1985–2010). The Act’s implementation was studied in the two Belgian cities of Antwerp and Liège in order to consider the influence of the Flemish government and the Walloon government, respectively, in this policy area. The article uses insights from this comparison to revisit the culture of control thesis and its limitations in understanding the political competition that exists over the formulation of policies on antisocial behaviour.     

The toxicological challenges in the European research project DRUID

Within the epidemiological studies of the integrated European research project DRUID (Driving Under the Influence of Drugs, alcohol and medicines), 13 laboratories from across Europe will analyse whole blood, oral fluid (OF) or urine from the general driving population and injured drivers. To ensure the comparability of toxicological results from the different studies, the collection of samples, analytical methods, target analytes and analytical cut-offs have been standardized for all laboratories involved.Target analytes were selected based on suspected impairing effects and prevalence. Twenty-three drugs are included in the ‘core list’ for which analysis is mandatory: ethanol, amphetamine, MDMA, MDA, MDEA, methamphetamine, cocaine, benzoylecgonine, THC, THC-COOH, 6-acetylmorphine, diazepam, flunitrazepam, alprazolam, clonazepam, oxazepam, nordiazepam, zolpidem, zopiclone, lorazepam, morphine, codeine and methadone. Additionally, 28 other drugs will be analysed in 1–12 countries.All whole blood samples are collected in glass Vacutainer-type tubes containing sodium fluoride and potassium oxalate. Based on a comparative study of 10 collection devices, it was decided to collect oral fluid using the Statsure™ device. Since only a small sample volume is available (5–10 mL blood and 1 mL oral fluid), all laboratories have to develop methods for simultaneous detection of the target analytes. All laboratories agreed to use either LC–MS–MS or GC–MS in SIM-mode. Proficiency testing for both blood and oral fluid are organized.Analytical cut-offs were established for the core list based on those used in ROSITA-2, SAMHSA cut-off values for oral fluid and recommendations from an expert meeting in Talloires.Because of practical and legal considerations, different sample types are used: whole blood, serum/plasma and oral fluid. Literature on correlation between analyte concentrations in these body fluids is limited, which makes several comparisons of study results difficult: (1) comparison of epidemiological (blood, oral fluid and urine) and experimental studies (serum and plasma) performed in DRUID and (2) comparisons within the epidemiological studies themselves (most countries: oral fluid in road-side survey, blood in hospital studies).A combination of literature findings, new findings from DRUID and semi-quantitative results will likely have to be used to solve these problems.     

Flesh and steel: antithetical figures in the war on terrorism

The ongoing conflict in the war on terrorism puts two emblematic modes of violence into sharp relief: the drone, as an ostensibly rational, clinical and measured weapon of war, and suicide bombings, frequently portrayed as the horrid deeds of fanatics. In this article, I seek to challenge this juxtaposition and instead suggest that both modalities of killing are part of the same technologically-mediated ecology of violence. To do this, I examine the material-semiotic assemblage of the drone and of the suicide bomber, paying attention to the technological production of each mode of violence, as well as the narratives that render each figure intelligible in the war on terrorism. I argue that the strongly divergent narratives found in Western discourse serve as a politically expedient sense–making device, whereby suicide bombing is pathologised, thereby justifying ever more intrusive violent acts with seemingly rational technologies like the drone. Rather than “solving” the problem of terrorism, this creates counter-productive, or iatrogenic, effects, in which technological mediation escalates rather than diminishes cycles of violence. By way of response, I suggest that a better understanding of the relational nature of violence in the war on terrorism might be gained by reading the two not as antithetical figures, but instead as operating in the same technological key.     

Risk and protective factors of delinquency that are sensitive to migration and culture

ABSTRACT

Present evidence regarding widely used risk assessment tools suggests that such tools may have inferior predictive validity for offenders with a migration background (MB), especially from Turkey and Arab countries. Based on a thorough literature review, we investigated additional risk and protective factors via a postdictive correlational study design. We assumed that delinquency is induced by discrimination, a conflict of values, norms of honour, a disapproval of sexual self-determination, and antisemitism. In contrast, we expected social support to diminish the risk of criminal behaviour. The sampling took place inside and outside prison, where adult men with an Arab or Turkish MB (n?=?140) filled out a questionnaire. Individual norms of honour (r?=?.27?.41), antisemitism (r?=?.31?.37), and a disapproval of sexual self-determination (r?=?.23?.26) were positively correlated with delinquency. The best predictor was the individual’s perception of friends’ norms of honour (r?=?.34?.56). However, only a few significant correlations were found for a perception of individual discrimination (r?=?.08?.14) and an internal conflict of values (r?=?.11?.15), whereas global discrimination (r?=?.20?.29) clearly emerged as a risk factor for delinquency. Social support by nondelinquent peers could be confirmed as having a protective influence against delinquency (r=?.25?.27). Theoretical and practical implications for risk assessment are discussed.     

Green consumer markets in the fight against climate change

Abstract

Climate change has become one of the greatest threats to environmental security, as attested by the growing frequency of severe flooding and storms, extreme temperatures and droughts. Accordingly, the European Union's (EU) 6th Environment Action Programme (2010) lists tackling climate change as its first priority. A key aim of the EU has been to cut CO₂ emissions, a major factor in climate change, by 8 per cent until 2012 and 20 per cent until 2020. The European Commission has proposed the encouragement of private consumer market for green products and services as one of several solutions to this problem. However, existing research suggests that the market share of these products has been only 3 per cent, although 30 per cent of individuals favour environmental and ethical goods. This article uses Public Goods Theory to explain why the contribution of the green consumer market to fighting climate change has been and possibly may remain limited without further public intervention.