Predicting Initiator and Near Repeat Events in Spatiotemporal Crime Patterns: An Analysis of Residential Burglary and Motor Vehicle Theft

Near repeat analysis has been increasingly used to measure the spatiotemporal clustering of crime in contemporary criminology. Despite its predictive capacity, the typically short time frame of near repeat crime patterns can negatively affect the crime prevention utility of near repeat analysis. Thus, recent research has argued for a greater understanding of the types of places that are most likely to generate near repeat crime patterns. The current study contributes to the literature through a spatiotemporal analysis of residential burglary and motor vehicle theft in Indianapolis, IN. Near Repeat analyses were followed by multinomial logistic regression models to identify covariates related to the occurrence of initiator (the first event in a near repeat chain) and near repeat (the subsequent event in a near repeat chain) events. The overall findings provide additional support for the argument that neighborhood context can influence the formation and context of spatiotemporal crime patterns.     

Patterns of substance involvement and criminal behavior: a gender-based cluster analysis of Pennsylvania arrestees

Recent drug-crime scholarship has underscored the importance of conducting disaggregated research that focuses on the consistencies and variations between subcategories of drug misuse and criminal activity and, further, how these associations may vary across sociodemographic and cultural boundaries. The research presented in this article used cluster analysis to independently classify male and female arrestees based on their arrest charges and substance-specific indicators of initiation, use, dependence, and treatment need. The data come from Pennsylvania's Substance Abuse and Need for Treatment Among Arrestees study conducted as part of the State Treatment Needs Assessment Program. Five groups were identified in both the male and female cluster analyses. The results reveal both important differences and strong similarities in the drug-crime typologies of male and female arrestees. Given these findings, implications are discussed for developing and targeting responsive treatment services that match the particular risks and needs of drug-involved offenders.     

“I Had a Confidence Epiphany!”: Obstacles to Combating Post-Identification Confidence Inflation

Research shows that eyewitnesses often become more confident with their selections from a lineup over time, a problem labeled "confidence inflation." Wells et al. (1998) Law and Human Behavior, 22, 603-647 suggested that eyewitnesses provide a confidence statement immediately following their selection to capture an unadulterated measure of confidence. Three experiments tested the effectiveness of introducing such a statement to combat the effects of confidence inflation on mock-juror judgments. All experiments provided evidence that the attributions participants formed about the eyewitness' confidence inflation differentially impacted their judgments. Although mock-jurors generally discredited eyewitnesses who showed confidence inflation and sometimes lowered probability of guilt ratings for the defendant, a clear exception occurred when mock-jurors attributed the inflation to an epiphany. Use of post-identification confidence statements to decrease the impact of confidence inflation in the courtroom may be insufficient.     

Alternative Pathways to Violence in Persons with Schizophrenia: The Role of Childhood Antisocial Behavior Problems

Violence in schizophrenia patients may result from many factors besides the symptoms of schizophrenia. This study examined the relationship between childhood antisocial behavior and adult violence using data from the NIMH CATIE study. The prevalence of violence was higher among patients with a history of childhood conduct problems than among those without this history (28.2% vs. 14.6%; P < 0.001). In the conduct-problems group, violence was associated with current substance use at levels below diagnostic criteria. Positive psychotic symptoms were linked to violence only in the group without conduct problems. Findings suggest that violence among adults with schizophrenia may follow at least two distinct pathways-one associated with premorbid conditions, including antisocial conduct, and another associated with the acute psychopathology of schizophrenia.     

The Impact of the Economy on Presidential Elections Throughout US History

Political Behavior - As numerous studies in the US and elsewhere document, voters often hold incumbents accountable for recent economic circumstances. However, our knowledge of the conditions that...     

Educational Attainment and Social Norms of Voting

Political Behavior - Why does the likelihood of voting increase with education in the US? Prominent theories attribute education’s effect to human capital, which affords individuals resources...     

Performance characteristics of the Cozart RapiScan Oral Fluid Drug Testing System for opiates in comparison to ELISA and GC/MS following controlled codeine administration

Oral fluid is an interesting alternative matrix for drug testing in many environments, including law enforcement, workplace drug testing, and drug treatment facilities. Performance characteristics of the FDA-cleared, qualitative, Cozart RapiScan Opiate Oral Fluid Drug Testing System (Opiate Cozart RapiScan System or Opiate CRS) were compared to the semi-quantitative Cozart Microplate EIA Opiate Oral Fluid Kit (Opiate ELISA) and to gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS). The following oral fluid opiate cutoffs were evaluated: the GC/MS limit of quantification (LOQ) of 2.5 mg/l; 15 microg/l currently used for oral fluid testing in the United Kingdom (UK); 30 microg/l (Opiate CRS cutoff); and 40 microg/l, the proposed Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA) cutoff. Subjects provided informed consent to participate in this IRB-approved research and resided on the closed research ward throughout the study. Three oral codeine doses of 60 mg/70 kg were administered over a 7-day period. After a 3-week break, subjects received three doses of 120 mg/70 kg within 7 days. Oral fluid specimens (N = 1273) were analyzed for codeine (COD), norcodeine (NCOD), morphine (MOR) and normorphine (NMOR) by GC/MS with an LOQ of 2.5 microg/l for all analytes. MOR and NMOR were not detected in any sample; 26.5% of the specimens were positive for COD and 13.7% for NCOD. Opiate CRS uses a preset, qualitative cutoff of 10 microg/l; this is equivalent to 30 microg/l in undiluted oral fluid as the oral fluid collection process involves a 1:3 dilution with buffer. Sensitivity, specificity, and efficiency of Opiate CRS compared to Opiate ELISA were 98.6, 98.1, and 98.2% at a 30 microg/l cutoff and 99.0, 96.2, and 96.6% at a 40 microg/l cutoff. Compared to the much lower GC/MS LOQ of 2.5 microg/l, sensitivity, specificity and efficiency were 66.8, 99.3 and 90.7%. Increasing the GC/MS cutoff to the current UK level yielded performance characteristics of 81.5% (sensitivity), 99.3% (specificity), and 95.4% (efficiency). Using a GC/MS cutoff identical to the preset Opiate CRS cutoff yielded sensitivity, specificity, and efficiency of 88.5, 99.2, and 97.5%, respectively. At the proposed SAMSHA confirmation cutoff of 40 microg/l, sensitivity increased with little change in specificity and efficiency (91.3% sensitivity, 98.9% specificity, and 97.5% efficiency). Oral fluid is a suitable matrix for detecting drugs of abuse. Opiate CRS, with a 30 microg/l cutoff, is sufficiently sensitive, specific and efficient for oral fluid opiate analysis, performing similarly to Opiate ELISA at the same cutoff, and having performance characteristics >91% when compared to GC/MS at the proposed SAMHSA cutoff.