The optimal jury size when jury deliberation follows a random walk

The existing literature does not agree on the optimal jury size. We demonstrate that the probability of type I and type II errors is not sensitive to the number of jurors under the following three conditions: jurors receive independent signals about a defendant’s guilt during the evidence stage of the trial; the jurors truthfully reveal their signals before deliberations begin through their votes on the first ballot; and the jury’s deliberation follows a random walk. Since the opportunity cost of jury service is positive, this implies an optimal jury size of one.     

An experimental trial of a dog-training program in a juvenile detention center

Journal of Experimental Criminology - This research examines the effect of a dog-training program among juveniles ordered to a county juvenile detention facility in a large, Midwestern city. A...     

Causal inference and American political development: common challenges and opportunities

Public Choice - The causal inference (CI) movement has forced political scientists to think far more seriously about what can be learned from a particular research design and to be more attentive...     

What to Believe? Social Media Commentary and Belief in Misinformation

Political Behavior - Americans are increasingly turning to social media for political information. However, given that the average social media user only clicks through on a small fraction of the...