Gunshot location through recorded sound: a preliminary report

Using a video tape and three still photographs, we analyze recorded sound to attribute authorship in a fatal shooting incident. We measure the acoustic signature of the scene with four test detonations, and we discuss two methods of processing putative echoes in the audio band of the video. They allow us to locate 11 out of 17 shots, with a precision of 0.4 x 1.0 m2. Combining the location of the shots with the known positions of the participants, we arrive at the clear attribution of eight shots; three other shots (among which is the fatal one) probably issue from the same shooter, who remains unidentified within a small group of men. Our results lead to the exculpation of the main suspect. We analyze the statistical significance of the results, use Monte Carlo simulations to set an upper bound to the probability of false positives, and discuss areas of improvement of the method.     

Who Delivers? Partisan Clients in the Argentine Electoral Market

Why do some parties fail to benefit from patronage in pork‐ridden political systems? This article analyzes the interaction between patronage and partisanship to explain why some incumbents are more likely to benefit from pork politics than others. We explain such differences by focusing on political parties' access to resources (supply side) and voters' dependence on fiscal largesse (demand side). We show how these differences affect the patron's choice of public sector wages and employment. We use subnational level data to show different electoral returns from patronage for the two major political coalitions in Argentina—Peronism and the UCR‐Alianza—and their effect on preferences over public sector wages and employment.     

The Local Voter: A Geographically Weighted Approach to Ecological Inference

Drawing inferences about individual behavior from aggregate ecological data has been a persistent problem in electoral and behavioral studies, in spite of important methodological advances. In a recent article Anselin and Tam Cho (2002) provided Monte Carlo evidence that King's Ecological Inference (EI) solution will produce biased estimates in the presence of extreme spatial heterogeneity. In this article we provide further empirical evidence that supports their findings and shows that in the presence of spatial effects the residuals of Goodman's naïve model exhibit the same spatial structure that King's local  B ^B _i  estimates. Solving for extreme spatial heterogeneity, it is argued here, requires controlling the omitted variable bias expressed in the spatial structure of much ecological data. In this article we propose a Geographically Weighted Regression approach (GWR) for solving problems of spatial aggregation bias and spatial autocorrelation that affect all known methods of ecological inference. The estimation process is theoretically intuitive and computationally simple, showing that a well-specified GWR approach to Goodman and King's Ecological Inference methods may result in unbiased and consistent local estimates of ecological data that exhibit extreme spatial heterogeneity.     

Two regionalisms,two Latin Americas or beyond Latin America? Contributions from a critical and decolonial IPE

This article reconsiders the hegemonic interpretation of Latin American regionalisms, which have been defined as expressions of the fragmentation power of ideologies. After identifying the main bias and limitations of this approach, two alternative analytical proposals are presented: critical International Political Economy (IPE), which reconsiders the region’s heterogeneity as the reflection of a variety of historical trajectories; and the increasingly influential Latin/Latin American modernity/coloniality approach, which re-authorises the voices of a multiplicity of ‘marginal’ subjectivities to the cognoscible world of international studies.     

Measuring horizontal fiscal imbalance: the case of Italian municipalities

In the literature on fiscal federalism, vertical fiscal imbalance has been widely studied, while the theme of horizontal fiscal imbalance and inequality among local governments, due to differences in their fiscal capacities, has been less explored. This article contributes to fill the gap. A new method to compute fiscal capacities based on regression analysis is proposed, which can overcome some of the drawbacks of traditional methods such as the representative tax system. This new approach is then employed to evaluate the fiscal capacities of Italian municipalities over the period 2002–2010. Finally two global measures of the horizontal fiscal imbalance are used to evaluate the equity implication of a major policy change occurred in 2008 in Italian municipal finance.     

Does Conditionality Mitigate the Potential Negative Effect of Aid on Revenues?

Abstract

This paper assesses whether conditionality in IMF-supported programmes has helped offset the potential negative effect of foreign aid on tax revenues. The analysis – carried out on panel data covering 1993-2012 for 111 low- and middle-income countries – shows that growing use of revenue conditionality by low-income countries partially offsets the depressing effect of foreign grants on tax revenue, particularly on taxes on goods and services. The impact of conditionality is strong in countries where aid dependence is high and where institutions are strong, suggesting that revenue conditionality cannot substitute for weak institutions in mitigating any negative effect of aid on tax revenue collection.