Distribution of transfers and soft budget spending behaviors: evidence from Italian regions

This paper examines empirically the strategic interactions among central and subcentral governments when incomplete information forces the subcentral government to form expectations about the amount of transfers that it will receive from the central one. The empirical analysis features a wide array of proxies for transfer expectations and uses an autoregressive modeling technique to estimate them on a sample of 20 Italian Regions for the 1995–2009 time interval. The analysis shows that transfer expectations are a quantitatively important component of local government spending, revealing evidence of soft budget spending behavior.     

Five Stars and a Cricket. Beppe Grillo Shakes Italian Politics

The article focuses on a new political player: the Five Star Movement led by the comedian Beppe Grillo. The party lies at the junction between different organisational models and conceptions of democracy: it combines an online and an offline presence; it has ‘horizontal’ structural elements, but a top-down decision-making process; it is positioned ‘beyond’ ideologies, while its electorate comes from various political families. The work considers the history, message, leader, organisation and electoral base of the movement, as well as the political opportunity structure that facilitated its growth in 2012 and the challenges it faces in the delicate phase of institutionalisation.     

Subarachnoid Hemorrhage and Carbon Monoxide Exposure: Accidental Association or Fatal Link?

This case study reports a fatal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) with concomitant accidental carbon monoxide (CO) exposure in 32‐year‐old man. Autopsy results indicated an antemortem aspiration of smoke, and a massive SAH was identified as the cause of death. Intriguingly, the carboxyhemoglobin level was 30%, suggesting that CO could have played a specific role. Intracranial hemorrhages following CO exposure in brain areas and tissues such as the basal ganglia, globus pallidus, or white matter are rare, but well characterized, whereas SAH related to CO exposure has not been previously described. In this case report, the possible role of CO, either as a primary cause or as a facilitating factor, in the pathogenesis of SAH is discussed. In particular, we propose the hypothesis that the excessive vasodilating effects produced by CO on the cerebral endothelium results in consequential loss of microvascular integrity.     

Death from renal cyst: spontaneous or traumatic rupture?

We report an unusual death of an apparently healthy 56-year-old male due to massive hemorrhage caused by rupture of an artery in the wall of a solitary renal cyst, possibly after a relatively minor trauma. Fatalities due to spontaneous or posttraumatic rupture of renal cysts are extremely rare but can represent a potential danger for people with acquired cystic kidney disease. Our report describes results of the forensic investigation and discusses possible mechanisms of the rupture.     

Results of the 2003-2004 GEP-ISFG collaborative study on mitochondrial DNA: focus on the mtDNA profile of a mixed semen-saliva stain

We report here a review of the seventh mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) exercise undertaken by the Spanish and Portuguese working group (GEP) of the International Society for Forensic Genetics (ISFG) corresponding to the period 2003-2004. Five reference bloodstains from five donors (M1-M5), a mixed stain of saliva and semen (M6), and a hair sample (M7) were submitted to each participating laboratory for nuclear DNA (nDNA; autosomal STR and Y-STR) and mtDNA analysis. Laboratories were asked to investigate the contributors of samples M6 and M7 among the reference donors (M1-M5). A total of 34 laboratories reported total or partial mtDNA sequence data from both, the reference bloodstains (M1-M5) and the hair sample (M7) concluding a match between mtDNA profiles of M5 and M7. Autosomal STR and Y-STR profiling was the preferred strategy to investigate the contributors of the semen/saliva mixture (M6). Nuclear DNA profiles were consistent with a mixture of saliva from the donor (female) of M4 and semen from donor M5, being the semen (XY) profile the dominant component of the mixture. Strikingly, and in contradiction to the nuclear DNA analysis, mtDNA sequencing results yield a more simple result: only the saliva contribution (M4) was detected, either after preferential lysis or after complete DNA digestion. Some labs provided with several explanations for this finding and carried out additional experiments to explain this apparent contradictory result. The results pointed to the existence of different relative amounts of nuclear and mtDNAs in saliva and semen. We conclude that this circumstance could strongly influence the interpretation of the mtDNA evidence in unbalanced mixtures and in consequence lead to false exclusions. During the GEP-ISFG annual conference a validation study was planned to progress in the interpretation of mtDNA from different mixtures.     

A nonlinear principal component analysis of the relationship between budget rules and fiscal performance in the European Union

Tests of the relationship between budget rules and fiscal performance are metric sensitive and arbitrary in the evaluation of the stringency of the rules, in the aggregation of these evaluations in an index and in the imposition of a linearly specified model. We propose a nonlinear principal component analysis to solve these problems and evaluate the relative disciplinary power of each rule. A battery of panel regressions on 1980–2003 optimally transformed data relative to 12 EU countries confirms that, upon controlling for standard economic, political and institutional variables, more stringent rules reduce fiscal imbalances and budget size.     

A Comparative Test of Alternative Theories of the Determinants of Italian Public Deficits (1950–1998)

The paper assesses the relative explanatorypower of the Keynesian, the optimalfinance, the contingent liability andseveral public choice theories of thedeterminants of public deficits on Italian1950–1998 data. A vector error correctionmodel suggests that deficits are sensitiveto unemployment levels, interest groups'preferences (especially the elderly),government fragmentation, changes in thedegree of stringency of budget rules andexternal economic constraints. Data insteadprovide a weak or no support to thehypotheses that deficits respond to outputgrowth and electoral events. Theimplications of the optimal finance and ofthe contingent liability theory arerejected as well.     

Referendum on Renzi: The 2016 Vote on the Italian Constitutional Revision

The 2016 constitutional referendum could have marked a new phase in Italian politics, producing a clear shift towards a majoritarian (and de facto presidential) democracy. But a substantial majority of voters rejected the reforms promoted by Matteo Renzi, leading to his resignation as Prime Minister. Once again, an attempt to redesign the Italian institutional framework failed due to party conflicts. This time, the referendum turned into a vote on Renzi himself. This article examines the background to the institutional reforms and the changing dynamics of the referendum campaign. Discussing the final outcome, it argues that this could produce a sort of U-turn in the long Italian transition.     

Electoral foundations of parliamentary questions: evidence from the European Parliament

Parliamentary questions (PQs) provide a useful tool for members of the European Parliament (MEPs) to control the executive at supranational level and to promote their reputation among relevant groups (party, interest groups and constituency). Previous works have just focused on macro-functions of questions, neglecting the opportunity for MEPs to use them as a re-election and re-selection strategy (micro-functions). In this article, it is argued that PQs are a relevant instrument in the hands of parliamentarians in order to increase their reputation and build up their political image. In particular, it is considered how variation in electoral systems might affect legislative behaviour and, especially, the number of questions asked. Using a new data set on oral and written questions to the European Commission and the Council, the article demonstrates how candidate-centred electoral systems incentivise MEPs to ask more questions than legislators elected under party-centred systems.     

Statistical analysis of DNA mixtures using peak area information and allelic drop out

A case of a woman killed in Perugia is reported. The woman was beaten to death and the body showed evidence of bites, kicks and punches. The request of the Court was to verify the presence of bites and if they belonged to humans. Morphological examination and genetic analysis with human Y-specific markers were performed in order to verify the origin of the bites. The DNA profile from the surrounded area of the traces was compared with the profile of the victim's husband (the suspect).The results showed a match between the profile of the suspect and that of the traces for all loci examined. Due to the fact that also other relatives of the husband's male lineage lived in the same house, it was not possible to identify the man who really contributed to the traces. Therefore, the analysis was implemented with autosomal STR markers, which showed a mixed genetic profile. In order to verify the number and the identity of the contributors, statistical analysis based upon peak area information was performed with Probabilistic Expert Systems.