The new great game in Central Asia post 2014: The US “New Silk Road” strategy and Sino-Russian rivalry

With the planned US and NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2014 looming ever closer, and Central Asia's own future increasingly in doubt, major powers are all competing to enhance their influence in Central Asia. 2014 may mark a regional tipping point, but none can accurately predict how the regional balance might shift after the NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan. During 2009–2010, the signs of growing Russian dependence on China in terms of economy and energy were palpable, as were the signs of China successfully subordinating Russia to its Central Asian economic agenda. In 2011–2012, it was difficult to see Russia simply acquiescing in its subordination to China without reacting to that situation negatively. Since 2011, to avoid this dependence on China, Russia has vigorously pushed for its regional integration schemes. 2011 marked the launch of the US “New Silk Road” initiative. Great power regional integration schemes, however, undermine both regional and national development.     

Quand la famille se déchire: analyse des sections divergentes cantonales lors des votations populaires 2003‐2011

The appearance of divergent cantonal sections during popular votes is a recurring phenomenon in Switzerland. However, despite the importance of its analysis to evaluate the internal cohesion of political parties, this has been neglected in the recent literature. We fill the gap by analyzing both quantitatively and qualitatively the divergent sections during popular votes in the last two legislatures (2003‐2007 and 2007‐2011). The quantitative analysis shows stability or even a slight decline of the phenomenon. The qualitative analysis (case studies) relativizes its impact on party cohesion: Its more important occurrences are confined to specific policy areas and caused by particular or specific causes.     

Wars of Attrition in Italian Government Coalitions and Fiscal Performance: 1948–1994

We test the ``war of attrition'' models of fiscalperformance on the sample of Italian governments from1948 to 1994. We control for conditioning phenomena,like government stability, majority size, central bankindependence, political budget cycle and externaleconomic constraints, as well as for business cycleindicators. We improve on the standard specificationsof war of attrition models by considering the role ofthe opposition and by using ex ante measures ofcoalitions fragmentation. Once these phenomena areaccounted for, data support the implications of ourversion of the war of attrition models.     

The political legislation cycle

The economic theory of legislation holds that laws, even when they do not involve financial resources, redistribute property rights. Politicians supply legislation to groups with the highest political return. By the same logic, politicians should supply legislation when doing so has the highest political return. The dynamics of the supply of legislation should follow the pattern suggested by the political business cycle theory. We develop a model of government’s and voters’ behavior where a legislation cycle is the strategy to hold the government (coalition) together. Under certain assumptions, the model predicts that the approbation of laws should be concentrated at the end of the legislature and be positively related to the fragmentation of the government coalition. We test these restrictions on data about the supply of legislation by the Italian Parliament during legislatures from I to XIII (1948 to 2001). The empirical analysis provides strong support to the theory: a legislation cycle occurs when the conditioning phenomena that the model indicates are satisfied.     

Post-mortem stability and redistribution of carbohydrate-deficient transferrin (CDT)

Post-mortem diagnosis of chronic alcohol abuse is a challenge for forensic experts due to the lack of pathognomonic morphological findings and often also inadequate background information. Objective methods demonstrating chronic excessive alcohol consumption would therefore be a useful tool for forensic pathologists. In clinical practice, several markers of chronic alcohol abuse have recently been introduced, among which carbohydrate-deficient transferrin (CDT) is the most accepted, but the use of these markers in autopsy has not yet been established. We examined post-mortem stability and possible post-mortem redistribution of CDT and compared two analytical methods, capillary zone electrophoresis and high-performance liquid chromatography. According to our results, CDT remains stable for an appreciable time after death. The results further indicate that CDT is not subject to major post-mortem redistribution.     

Going Unnoticed? Diagnosing the Right to Asylum in the Charter of Fundamental Rights of the European Union

Article 18 of the Charter of Fundamental Rights of the European Union enshrines the right to asylum. Nonetheless, despite its ‘constitutionalisation’ within primary law, asylum remains a far too amorphous right, whose axiological potential has gone virtually unnoticed in the ongoing migratory crisis. The paper will argue that this is partly due to the fact that the Court of Justice on a few occasions has declined to clarify the scope of Article 18. The provision at issue therefore remains a pathological element that requires an adequate diagnosis on which accurate prognoses can be based. In an attempt to diagnose the right to asylum enshrined in Article 18 of the Charter of Fundamental Rights of the EU, this paper will compare different hermeneutical approaches and reflect on the contextualisation of the mentioned provision through the lens of domestic and EU case law and in the light of the recent EU–Turkey Statement. The article will ultimately propose to interpret the EU asylum legislation as instrumental to the effective exercise of the right to asylum.     

Determination of carbohydrate deficient transferrin (CDT) with capillary electrophoresis: an inter laboratory comparison

Carbohydrate deficient transferrin (CDT) is currently the most specific laboratory marker of chronic or sustained alcohol abuse. CDT is increasingly being used as a diagnostic tool in the areas employment, traffic safety and forensic medicine. In recent times, capillary electrophoresis (CE) has been proposed as a convenient tool for rapid, precise and accurate CDT determination, not only for research but also for routine analyses. Quite recently, commercial kits have been introduced which, reportedly, could simplify and standardize CDT analysis with capillary electrophoresis. The present work was aimed at testing the ruggedness of a capillary electrophoretic method based on a commercial kit (CEofix, Analis), by comparing the results obtained with different instruments in different laboratories, on a panel of sera randomly collected and exchanged. The results showed, notwithstanding few outliers, excellent correlation of the results obtained in the two laboratories (R=0.974). Also high concordance was found when results were classified as positive or negative on the basis of a cut-off (1.25%) established from a control group of teetotalers. In conclusion the present data support the usefulness of capillary electrophoresis for CDT determination for clinical, forensic and administrative diagnosis of chronic alcohol abuse.     

Case report of a fatal intoxication by citalopram

Citalopram is an antidepressant drug within the group of the selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRI). It is widely prescribed both in Europe and in United States, and it has always been considered a "safe" drug as pure intoxication with lethal outcome is rare, and most cases of overdose, even with high doses of citalopram ingested, are reported to have an uneventful course.We report the case of a young woman found dead at home. She had been prescribed citalopram by her family doctor 3 weeks before her death for a depressive syndrome. Police found in her house 3 empty blister packages of 28 citalopram tablets (20 mg) and 2 bottles of citalopram oral solution (4%, 15 mL each). The autopsy findings were unremarkable. Nasal swabs, blood from femoral vein, urine, bile and tissue samples were collected for toxicologic investigation. Citalopram separation was performed by solid/liquid method, using Bond-Elute columns. The extracts were analyzed by GLC and GC/MS methods. The toxicologic analysis showed high levels of citalopram in all the examined fluids and tissue samples (blood concentration: 11.60 mg/L). No other drugs and alcohol were detected. Our data confirm that if no other drug is involved, fatal complications occur only after ingestion of very high doses. However, there is no predefined "toxic dose," and the conditions under which the overdose occurs can be very important. We report the exact concentrations of the citalopram in the organs, and wethink that this can be useful in the cases where the blood samples were not available (ie, carbonized or decomposed body).     

Parenting,Peer Orientation,Drug Use,and Antisocial Behavior in Late Adolescence: A Cross-National Study

The objective of this study was to investigate the links between maternal and paternal bonding, parental practices, orientation toward peers, and the prevalence of drug use and antisocial behavior during late adolescence. A model was tested using structural equation modeling in order to verify the robustness of the investigated links across 3 countries: Canada, France, and Italy. A self-report questionnaire was given to a sample of 908 adolescents, with an equivalent number of girls and boys, in Grade 11. The questionnaire assessed the following variables: parental bonding, parental supervision, parental tolerance, orientation toward peers, involvement in physically aggressive antisocial behavior, non-physically aggressive antisocial behavior, and drug use. The model was robust across the 3 countries, thus confirming a path that identified quality of emotional bonds between adolescents and their parents as a distal variable acting upon deviant behaviors through the following mediators: parental supervision, parental tolerance, frequency of conflicts, and orientation toward peers. Michel Claes is full professor at the Université de Montréal, Canada. He received his Ph.D. in Education from Université Catholique de Louvain, Belgium. His major research interest is in social development in adolescence, with a special focus on intercultural studies.     

Tax Amnesties and the Self-Selection of Risk-Averse Taxpayers

In this paper we model taxpayers participation in an unexpected tax amnesty, which can be entered by paying a fixed amount. Taxpayers are characterized by a Constant Relative Risk Aversion (CRRA) utility function and differ in relative risk aversion coefficient and in income. We show that amnesties may fail as a self-selective device to fully separate big from small evaders and to extract resources from the former. Only taxpayers whose relative risk aversion falls within a given interval participate, while those whose evasion is too small or too large do not enter. The model is used to estimate relative risk aversion and tax evasion of participants in 1991 and 1994 Italian income tax amnesties.JEL Classification: H260, D890, K420