Modeling proximity and directional decisional logic: What can we learn from applying statistical learning techniques to VAA-generated data?

ABSTRACT

Voting advice applications-(VAA) generated data provide an ideal data source for testing competing theories of voting behavior. To that end, this paper focuses on comparing metrics of voter-party ideological concordance based on rival theories of issue voting (proximity and directional theory). Classification performance of the competing models, in terms of correctly predicting party choice, is evaluated in diverse cross-national settings. Drawing on the EUvox dataset (a VAA for the European Parliament elections in 2014) statistical learning techniques are used to model the decisional logic of voters in high- and low-dimensional policy space. The results show that statistical learning methods can improve classification performance significantly and that how dimensionality is modeled affects the performance of competing issue voting models.     

Political parties or party systems? Assessing the ‘myth’ of institutionalisation and democracy

No matter the region of the world under study, party (system) institutionalisation has been traditionally considered to be a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for the survival of democracy. Despite being one of the most quoted statements in the democratisation literature, the few studies looking at the relationship between institutionalisation and democratic endurance have found no evidence of the ‘almost magical’ powers of the former. This article revisits the abovementioned research question by making use of an original dataset covering all European democracies between 1848 and 2014. The main findings are threefold: (1) it is not the institutionalisation of political parties but the institutionalisation of party systems as a whole that has fostered the prospects for democratic survival in Europe; (2) there is a threshold of systemic institutionalisation which, once reached, will avoid democratic collapse; and (3) systemic over-institutionalisation does not seem to be so perilous for the survival of democracy.     

Post-crisis Political Normalisation? The 2018 Presidential Elections in the Republic of Cyprus

This article takes stock of the most recent presidential election in the Republic of Cyprus and connects it to broader currents in post-crisis European political settings. Although the elections took place against a backdrop of improving economic prospects, the crisis has left its political mark in a number of areas we identify that include a growing political fragmentation, the rise of the far right and increased voter abstention. The empirical analysis focuses on the media campaign and draws on a topic-modelling approach to identify and contrast emphasis given to policy issues over the two electoral rounds. The policy themes identified clustered around two dominant dimensions of political conflict: the Cyprus conflict and the economy.     

A suicide by thiopentone infusion

A suicide by intravenous thiopentone infusion is described. A search of the literature revealed only four cases, but this paucity is possibly due to under-reporting, as these suicides occur amongst medical personnel.     

An unusual case of fatal accidental paraquat poisoning

Paraquat, a useful contact herbicide is now used in over 130 countries of the world, including Sri Lanka. The number of cases of accidental poisoning reported with paraquat is small, relative to instances of suicide. When a clear history is not available, accidental paraquat poisoning is sometimes difficult to diagnose. A 9-year-old boy was admitted to a peripheral hospital with a history of diarrhoea and vomiting. He later developed abdominal pain, subcutaneous emphysema and difficulty in breathing. Following transfer to a district hospital and then to a teaching hospital, poisoning with paraquat was suspected only on day 11 of the illness. On persistent questioning, on day 13 of the illness the child remembered that the day prior to the onset of illness, on his way from a shop, he felt thirsty and having found an empty bottle of Gramoxone (paraquat) on the wayside he used it to drink water from a water tank. The child died on day 17 and the histology of the lung showed typical changes of paraquat poisoning. This tragic episode emphasises the need for proper disposal of empty containers of all poisonous substances.     

Sudden unexpected death due to familial hypertrophic obstructive cardiomyopathy

Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy is a familial condition with a very distinct risk of sudden death in males in certain families. The disease appears to be not uncommon in Sri Lanka. A sudden death in a 26-year-old healthy man is reported: At autopsy the heart was 500 g due mainly to left ventricular hypertrophy, and showed histological changes consistent with cardiomyopathy. Symptomless family members of the deceased were subsequently referred to a cardiologist. Cardiomyopathy was diagnosed in one of them.