Cognitive Biases in Governing: Technology Preferences in Election Administration

Cognitive biases are heuristics that shape individual preferences and decisions in a way that is at odds with means‐end rationality. The effects of cognitive biases on governing are underexplored. The authors study how election administrators’ cognitive biases shape their preferences for e‐voting technology using data from a national survey of local election officials. The technology acceptance model, which employs a rational, means‐end perspective, suggests that the perceived benefits of e‐voting machines explain their popularity. But findings indicate that cognitive biases also play a role, even after controlling for the perceived benefits and costs of the technology. The findings point to a novel cognitive bias that is of particular interest to research on e‐government: officials who have a general faith in technology are attracted to more innovative alternatives. The authors also find that local election officials who prefer e‐voting machines do so in part because they overvalue the technology they already possess and because they are overly confident in their own judgment.     

How does Intergroup Contact Generate Ethnic Tolerance? The Contact Hypothesis in a Scandinavian Context

As European majority members are often hostile toward ethnic minorities, it is important to identify sources that reduce opposition to immigrants. First, focusing on Denmark, this article examines whether intergroup contact influences attitudes toward ethnic minority rights (henceforth: ‘ethnic tolerance’). Second, this study tests whether the contact‐tolerance relationship is mediated by self‐disclosure and symbolic threat. Furthermore, contact is measured as workplace contact in order to reduce self‐selection biases. The empirical tests are performed on a Danish high‐quality national probability sample from 2009 (N = 1,929). Analysis shows that intergroup contact generates ethnic tolerance because workplace contact weakens threat perceptions and stimulates disclosure of personal information. Generally, these results suggest that regular intergroup contact can improve ethnic relations in contemporary democracies.     

Campaigns and the prediction of election outcomes: Can historical and campaign-period prediction models be combined?

There are two approaches to predicting election outcomes: (1) a historical approach, which uses past election results alongside macroeconomic and political variables to forecast election results up to a year in advance, and (2) a campaign-oriented approach, which uses current campaign trends to forecast vote shares at the end of the campaign. They are in some way at odds—one approach says the campaign doesn't matter, the other focuses entirely on the campaign. This article considers whether the two approaches might be usefully combined; it considers whether the prediction errors in historical models may be related to trends during the campaign. That possibility is tested here using 17 elections in the US, UK and Canada, combining historical predictions and automated content analyses of campaign-period media content. Results suggest that campaigns do not account for errors in the historical predictions; but there may be other ways in which campaigns matter in conjunction with historical models.     

Judiciarisation de l’action publique en Suisse: analyse du contentieux administratif au Tribunal fédéral

Résumé: La judiciarisation de l’action publique demeure un champ de recherche peu exploré par les politologues suisses. Cette note de recherche étudie dès lors l’évolution des 79’752 affaires liquidées par le Tribunal fédéral, de 1990 à 2010, en matière administrative. Les résultats empiriques montrent que le contentieux administratif croît de 45% sur la période observée, principalement en matière d’assurances sociales. Nous observons toutefois des différences notables entre les domaines de politiques publiques et quant à la provenance cantonale des recours devant le Tribunal fédéral. Ces différences s’expliquent par l’influence conjointe de facteurs conjoncturels (par ex. la croissance économique), institutionnels (par ex. l’organisation judiciaire cantonale) et liés aux acteurs du système judiciaire (par ex. la densité d’avocats). En conclusion de cette analyse exploratoire, cinq pistes de recherche sont identifiées afin d’étudier plus finement l’ampleur du processus de judiciarisation et d’en évaluer les impacts sur les politiques publiques.     

Situating forensic traces in time

Situating events and traces in time is an essential problem in investigations. To date, among the typical questions issued in forensic science, time has generally been unexplored. The reason for this can be traced to the complexity of the overall problem, addressed by several scientists in very limited projects usually stimulated by a specific case. Considering that such issues are recurrent and transcending the treatment of each trace separately, the formalisation of a framework to address dating issues in criminal investigation is undeniably needed. Through an iterative process consisting of extracting recurrent aspects discovered from the study of problems encountered by practitioners and reported in the literature, common mechanisms were extracted and provide understanding of underlying factors encountered in forensic practise. Three complementary approaches are thus highlighted and described to formalise a preliminary framework that can be applied for the dating of traces, objects, persons and indirectly events.     

A proposed dissection procedure for vertebral arteries in forensic pathology

Vertebral artery removing constitutes a significant forensic pathology challenge. Dissection techniques during head-neck autopsy are based on anterior approach, a difficult method, which is unable to assess the transverse part of the artery. This work presents an original and simple method for dissecting vertebral arteries by a posterior approach, opening the vertebroarterial canal through the spinal canal without any special equipment. Once the spinal cord is removed, the transversarium foramens are opened by an internal cut at the pedicle and an external cut at the transverse process. This enables us to visualize vertebral arteries in its entirety. The method improves both the examination of the upper extracranial segment of the vertebral artery and the neuropathological study when arterial injury is suspected. Applying this method routinely is both feasible and useful in suspected cases of vertebral artery trauma and could contribute to assess more precisely the actual incidence of this injury.     

The World Bank Inspection Panel’s Normative Potential: A Critical Assessment,and a Restatement

Netherlands International Law Review - Much has been said about the potential of the World Bank’s Inspection Panel to contribute to the normative development of international law. Yet,...     

Detection of fingermarks by colloidal gold (MMD/SMD)--beyond the pH 3 limit

Dust was investigated for its ability to retain source attribution profiles (SAPs) after chemical exposure. Three distinct sources of the organophosphate pesticide acephate were investigated as a proof-of-concept model. In addition, attribution profiles were created and tested using compounds related to chemical warfare agents (CWAs), specifically VX and G-series agents: O-ethyl methylphosphonothioate (EMPTA), N,N-diisopropylmethylamine (DIPMA), N,N-diisopropylethylamine (DIEA), diisopropylamine (DIPA), diethyl aniline (DEA), diethyl ethyl phosphonate (DEEP), trimethyl phosphite (TMP), dimethyl hydrogen phosphite (DMHP), diethyl hydrogen phosphite (DEHP), triethyl phosphate (TEP), ethyl methylphosphonate (EMPA), and diisopropyl methylphosphonate (DIMP). Dust was collected from a storage shed, aliquots deposited on carpet and loaded with distinct chemical profiles using an exposure chamber and aerosolizer. After a given period of time (1h, 24h, or 72 h), the dust was extracted and its SAP analyzed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) and/or liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). Principal components analysis (PCA) was used to determine the association of dust exposed to the same and different chemical sources. PCA results demonstrate that dust samples exposed to distinct chemical sources are clearly differentiated from one another across all collection times. Furthermore, dust aliquots exposed to the same source can be clearly associated with one another across all collection times. When the CWA-related compounds were subjected to elevated temperature (90°C) conditions, it was found that the signature was stable at the 1h and 24h collections. At 72 h and elevated temperature, larger deviations from the control were observed for some compounds. Elevated pH (10) affected the profile to a lesser degree than elevated temperature. Overall, dust is found to be an effective media for the in situ collection of source attribution profiles.     

A pilot study of the effects of gonadotropin-releasing hormone agonist therapy on brain activation pattern in a man with pedophilia

Gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) agonists, such as leuprorelin, are recommended in the patients with pedophilia at highest risk of offending. However, the cerebral mechanisms of the effects of these testosterone-decreasing drugs are poorly known. This study aimed to identify changes caused by leuprorelin in a pedophilic patient's brain responses to pictures representing children. Clinical, endocrine, and fMRI investigations were done of a man with pedophilia before leuprorelin therapy and 5 months into leuprorelin therapy. Patient was compared with an age-matched healthy control also assessed 5 months apart. Before therapy, pictures of boys elicited activation in the left calcarine fissure, left insula, anterior cingulate cortex, and left cerebellar vermis. Five months into therapy, all the above-mentioned activations had disappeared. No such activations and, consequently, no such decreases occurred in the healthy control. The results of this pilot study suggest that leuprorelin decreased activity in regions known to mediate the perceptual, motivational, and affective responses to visual sexual stimuli.