Election results and opportunistic policies: A?new?test?of?the?rational political business cycle model

The literature on the rational PBC suggests that politicians systematically manipulate economic and fiscal conditions before elections to increase their chances of reelection. Most tests of this theory look for evidence of pre-election distortions in fiscal policy. We propose a new test that explores the two-way interaction between the magnitude of the opportunistic distortion and the margin of victory. The test is implemented using a large panel of Portuguese municipalities. The results show that opportunism leads to a larger win-margin for the incumbent and that incumbents behave more opportunistically when their win-margin is small. These results are consistent with the theoretical model.     

Chinese Economic Statecraft and U.S. Hegemony in Latin America: An Empirical Analysis, 2003–2014

If one interprets China's sizable rise in Latin America as an unprecedented phenomenon, it follows that the concurrent story of declining U.S. influence in the region is an event hastily acknowledged at best and ignored at worst. In this article, we ask whether Chinese economic statecraft in Latin America is related to the declining U.S. hegemonic influence in the region and explore how. To do so we analyze foreign direct investments, bank loans, and international trade from 2003 to 2014, when China became a major player in the region. We use data from 21 Latin American countries, and find that an inversely proportional relationship exists between the investments made by Chinese state‐owned enterprises (SOEs), bank loans, manufacturing exports, and the U.S. hegemonic influence exerted in the region. In other words, Beijing has filled the void left by a diminished U.S. presence in the latter's own backyard.     

The EU and the international socialization of gender equality: a case study of Tunisia’s AFTURD and Women and Citizenship (WAC)

The paper explores the impact of EU democracy promotion in the area of gender in Tunisia. It corroborates and adds nuance to the claim found in previous literature that the EU finances those CSOs whose leadership already embraces gender equality. It shows that members of these CSOs are socialized to different degrees and the internalization of gender equality differs depending on age, gender and location. Already socialized members increased their levels of attachment and investment. New CSO members differed in their socialization outcomes. Some undergo a full internalization process, others develop attachment to some features, while they reject those ideas that do not resonate in their value system. Findings also show that the EU successfully fosters local ownership in project management.     

Oil and the duration of dictatorships

Theoretical models do not reach an unambiguous conclusion concerning the effects of natural resource endowment on the duration of dictatorial regimes. We assess empirically, for the first time, the relationship between oil endowment and the duration of autocratic leaders. Using a dataset comprising information for 106 dictators, our empirical analysis indicates that dictators in countries which are relatively better endowed in terms of oil tend to stay longer in office. The result is robust to changes in the definition of dictatorial regimes and in the specifications used in the econometric analysis.     

Determinant Factors of Satisfaction with Public Services in Spain

The concept of marketing has evolved significantly, as have its applications in various sectors, including services. Diverse opinions have been expressed for and against the use of marketing techniques in public administration. In this paper, we present a conceptual and methodological review of the main contributions made by marketing to the public sector, measuring variables and related concepts that determine public satisfaction with public services. These elements, termed key drivers of opinion, were measured by reference to the information provided by the Spanish Sociological Research Centre (CIS), and provide an alternative way to display and analyse the data of interest, through perception models and figures using multivariate factor analysis. In this study, the components or factors containing the main drivers of opinion were found to be, on the one hand, commitment to efficient service, and on the other, user convenience.     

Migration and Distributive Politics: The Political Economy of Mexico's 3 × 1 Program

Mexico's 3 × 1 Program for Migrants is a matching grant scheme that seeks to direct the money sent by migrant organizations abroad to the provision of public and social infrastructure and to productive projects in migrants’ communities of origin. To this end, the municipal, state, and federal administrations match the amount sent by hometown associations by 3 to 1. This article explores the impact on the operation of the 3 × 1 of a particular facet of Mexican political life: its recent democratization and the increasing political fragmentation at the municipal level. The study finds a lower provision of public projects in jurisdictions where a high number of political parties compete. This finding casts doubt on the claim that policy interventions such as the 3 × 1 Program actually improve local public goods provision at the local level under increasing political competition.     

Identifying Irregularities in Mexican Local Elections

A generalized distrust in Mexican local elections raises the question of whether electoral corruption has vanished or remains a prevalent practice in the country. To answer this question, I analyze the 2010 gubernatorial elections, exploiting a feature of the country's electoral system: within each electoral precinct, voters are assigned to polling stations according to their childhood surname. Consequently, the only difference between voters in contiguous polling stations should be their last names. Given that political preferences are seldom correlated with voters' names, I use suspicious differences in turnout levels across contiguous polling stations to identify fraudulent practices. The findings of this article indicate that nondemocratic enclaves that actively obstruct the completion of Mexico's democratic transition still remain today.     

Designer Psychostimulants in Urine by Liquid Chromatography–Tandem Mass Spectrometry,

Designer psychostimulants are known by recreational drug users to produce a complex array of adrenergic and hallucinogenic effects. Many of these drugs are not targeted during routine toxicology testing and as a consequence, they are rarely reported. The purpose of this study was to develop a procedure for the detection of 15 psychostimulants in urine using liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry (LC‐MS/MS), specifically 2,5‐dimethoxy‐4‐bromophenethylamine (2C‐B), 2,5‐dimethoxy‐4‐chlorophenethylamine (2C‐C), 2,5‐dimethoxy‐4‐methylphenethylamine (2C‐D), 2,5‐dimethoxy‐4‐ethylphenethylamine (2C‐E), 2,5‐dimethoxyphenethylamine (2C‐H), 2,5‐dimethoxy‐4‐iodophenethylamine (2C‐I), 2,5‐dimethoxy‐4‐ethylthiophenethylamine (2C‐T‐2), 2,5‐dimethoxy‐4‐isopropylthiophenethylamine (2C‐T‐4), 2,5‐dimethoxy‐4‐propylthiophenethylamine (2C‐T‐7), 2,5‐dimethoxy‐4‐bromoamphetamine (DOB), 2,5‐dimethoxy‐4‐chloroamphetamine (DOC), 2,5‐dimethoxy‐4‐ethylamphetamine (DOET), 2,5‐dimethoxy‐4‐iodoamphetamine (DOI), 2,5‐dimethoxy‐4‐methylamphetamine (DOM), and 4‐methylthioamphetamine (4‐MTA). Analytical recoveries using solid‐phase extraction were 64–92% and the limit of detection was 0.5 ng/mL for all drugs except 2C‐B (1 ng/mL). The assay was evaluated in terms of analytical recovery, precision, accuracy, linearity, matrix effect, and interferences. The technique allows for the simultaneous detection of 15 psychostimulants at sub‐ng/mL concentrations.     

Do Employers Prefer Workers Who Attend For‐Profit Colleges? Evidence from a Field Experiment

This paper reports results from a resume‐based field experiment designed to examine employer preferences for job applicants who attended for‐profit colleges. For‐profit colleges have seen sharp increases in enrollment in recent years despite alternatives, such as public community colleges, being much cheaper. We sent almost 9,000 fictitious resumes of young job applicants who recently completed their schooling to online job postings in six occupational categories and tracked employer callback rates. We find no evidence that employers prefer applicants with resumes listing a for‐profit college relative to those whose resumes list either a community college or no college at all.     

Self-Referencing and Political Candidate Brands: A Congruency Perspective

Although political and marketing analysts commonly describe political candidates as brands, the conceptualization of political candidates as brands within academic research and popular culture is uncommon. This paper presents empirical evidence in support of viewing candidates as such. Using data from a nationwide study that measures the self concept of Mexican voters and their perceived images of the presidential candidates in Mexico's 2006 election, the paper demonstrates that voters see themselves and each candidate as a distinct brand. Furthermore, this view of a voter's self-brand influences his or her perception of a political candidate's brand image. The academic and managerial implications of these findings are discussed.