Regierungsabwahl ohne Regierungsneuwahl

Ohne Zusammenfassung Dieser Kommentar zur Bundestagswahl wurde am 4. Oktober 2005 der Redaktion der PVS eingereicht. Die Autoren bedanken sich bei der Redaktion der PVS und bei Thomas Gschwend für Verbesserungsvorschl?ge, die am 12. Oktober 2005 in die Endversion eingearbeitet wurden.     

Regierungsbildung in Mehrebenensystemen: Zur Erklärung der Koalitionsbildung in den deutschen Bundesländern

The German federal governmental system is conceptualized as a full-fledged two-level system, in which the Länder governments participate in federal policy decisions via the second chamber Bundesrat and in which the stakes of state coalition building are high for the federal parties. Our research question is whether we can find systematic empirical evidence for an influence of federal on state parties to build state governments whose party composition is concordant with federal politics, containing either exclusively federal governmental or non-governmental parties. We answer this question by indirect evidence. We show that such concordant majority coalitions occur above average even if important coalition predictors are controlled as minimal winning coalitions or participation of dominant and/or central players. We predict the 182 actual Land governments which were formed in the period from 1949 to 2003 compared to the possible governments in each situation.     

Loose Cannons or Loyal Foot Soldiers? Toward a More Complex Theory of Interest Group Advertising Strategies

Recent court decisions have encouraged new types of interest groups to become involved in election campaigns. Yet questions remain about whether interest group sponsorship of advertising affects the content of the issues being discussed. The ability of interest groups to influence the campaign agenda has implications for the extent to which politicians can be held accountable by citizens. In this research, we present a new conceptual framework for explaining variation in interest group advertising strategies and examine the factors leading different types of interest groups to be loose cannons (diverging from the issue debates among candidates) or loyal foot soldiers (matching the candidates’ issue debates). We find more evidence of loyal foot soldier behavior among new multi‐issue interest groups and among Republican groups and candidates. Fears of interest groups “hijacking” campaign agendas appear unfounded.     

Koalitionsbildungen zwischen Ämter- und Politikmotivation. Konstruktion einer interdependenten Nutzenfunktion

While newer coalition theories take into account that parties are both office and policy motivated, one problem remains unsolved: the fact that offices (ministries) and policies are inseparably connected with each other. In this essay, we solve this problem by constructing a utility function which considers the interdependency of office distributions and policy outputs. This utility function — which can be used as a basis for further coalition theories — is able to capture the interdependencies also in empirical applications, as we illustrate for the example of the coalition building process after the Bundestag elections of 2002.     

Regierungsbildung im deutschen Fünf-Parteiensystem

Since 2005 all five parliamentary parties in the German Bundestag have coalition potential in the sense that they are able to enter at least one minimal winning coalition, that is a coalition without parties which are not necessary for a majority. Given the number of each party’s members of parliament, the strategic coalition situation is fixed as the set of possible minimal winning coalitions. With certain assumptions (no party will gain an absolute majority, the party system consists of two larger and three smaller parties etc.) two strategic coalition situations are possible as a consequence of the Bundestag election in September 2009: the same as the existing one where only CDU/CSU and SPD can form a two party majority government, and an alternative, predicted currently (February/March 2009) by pollsters, where the largest party, probably the CDU/CSU, can form a two party majority coalition also with the third largest party, probably the FDP. In addition, several three party coalitions are also possible. Which of these coalitions will actually be formed will be determined by the policy distances between the parties which are identified in a two dimensional policy space (economic and social issue positions of parties). The possible minimal winning coalitions are further constrained by the majority coalitions in the so-called cycle set as defined by Schofield.     

What should journalism do in a new democracy?

The particular circumstances of new democracies invite reconsideration of normative ideas of the role of journalism. The model of communication developed by Habermas posits that various rules are built into the nature of communication, including norms of inclusivity, openness and non-coercion. Based on this approach, the role of journalism can be defined in relation to notions of civic discourse in the public sphere. This article describes the role in the following three dimensions: (1) as curator of information and views; (2) as direct participant, in its own voice; and, underpinning these, (3) as custodian of public discussion, whose quality is measured against the norms of fair discourse. This Habermasian approach lays the basis for critique, and the three dimensions identified are here applied to the particular circumstances of South Africa’s new democracy. It considers characteristics of South Africa as a new democracy and highly unequal society which impinge on the quality of civic discussion. Normatively, journalism’s role is to respond to those particular characteristics in building and protecting a vibrant public sphere where inclusive, fair civic discourse can take place. This includes a focus on areas where media practices and institutions themselves stand in the way of the ideal.     

Motion study for the blinded: a review of the gilbreths’ work with the visually handicapped

This paper reviews the Gilbreths’ work with the blind following the First World War. Although their work has essentially been neglected, the Gilbreths contributed substantially to the rehabilitation of military and civilian blind through their work at the Red Cross Institute for the Blind and through their advocacy for employing the sightless in industry.