Egypt versus Ethiopia: The Conflict over the Nile Metastasizes

Egypt and Ethiopia continue to oppose one another over the allocation of the waters of the Nile River basin, despite a succession of provisional multilateral agreements. Officials in Cairo insist that Egypt be guaranteed its “historic rights” to two-thirds of the river’s flow, while their counterparts in Addis Ababa demand an “equitable” distribution of water among all of the riparian countries. More important, Sudan’s shift in alignment from Egypt to Ethiopia has injected new tension into the dispute, and the sustained involvement of South Sudan, Kenya, Uganda and Eritrea heightens the likelihood that periodic crises will escalate into armed confrontations. Consequently, existing studies that offer sanguine assessments of the potential for a compromise settlement fail to address the key dynamics that drive the conflict.     

加拿大面对的北极挑战:主权、安全与认同

由于全球暖化对北极地区产生的影响,使得北极资源开采与航运的战略价值再度成为人们关注的亮点。西北航道开通的可能性,以及北极蕴藏的丰富石油、天然气与矿物,让观察家认为加拿大北极主权问题将再度成为争议的核心。美加之间多年来关于西北航道控制权的争议,以及环北极国家之间因大陆架延伸的重叠而发生纠纷,并非一定会导致冲突,相反地,透过协调与外交斡旋或许对各方更有利。加拿大北极主权问题,其实也是认同问题,而加拿大必须展现对北极地区更多的投入意愿。     

Using wilderness therapy in treating adolescent sexual offenders

Abstract

This article describes a follow-up study of 14 adolescent sexual offenders who had attended a community treatment programme. A core component of their treatment included outdoor wilderness group therapy. Interviews were conducted with adolescents and parents and tapped several areas including social skills and peer relationships, victim empathy, cognitive distortions, safety plans and coping with high risk situations, sexual offending cycle, perceived level of risk, intimacy and sexuality. The study also examined the child protection service records of the It adolescents. Data from child protection service computer records showed that none of the adolescents had reoffended. Interviews with adolescents and families focusing particularly on the wilderness component of the programme showed positive changes.     

Public choice theory and antitrust policy

We survey the pioneering contributions of Robert Tollison to the theory and practice of antitrust law enforcement. Inspired by his period of service during Ronald Reagan’s first administration as Director of the Federal Trade Commission’s Bureau of Economics, Tollison was the first scholar to apply public choice reasoning to the question why antitrust frequently fails to achieve its stated goal of protecting consumers against unwarranted exercises of market power. In supplying evidence that the outcomes of antitrust processes are shaped more by special interests than by the public’s interest, he was instrumental in launching a wholly new research program.     

Zero-base budgeting: some lessons from an inconclusive experiment

Abstract. This paper describes the consequences of an experiment conducted with four governmental programs intended to evaluate the utility of ZBB for improving public sector decision-making. The results of this experiment were mixed. On the one hand, we clearly observed greater participation by operating managers in the formulation of budgets. This, we were frequently told, had positive consequences for staff development and program planning. The zbb experiment also resulted in the generation of more and better information in support of budget requests. However, information has value only to the extent that it increases the probability that decision makers will choose better options than they would without it. In no case was it possible to identify changes in budget amounts or program content that might not have occurred following standard budgeting practices. We do not believe the absence of fiscal or program impact resulting from this experience is in any way conclusive evidence against zbb , but it should serve as a warning to the unwary or over-enthusiastic user. Sommaire. Cet article fait état d'une expérience conduite sur quatre programmes gouvernementaux dans le but d'évaluer l'utilité de la méthode zbb comme moyen d'améliorer le processus de décision à l'intérieur du secteur public. Les résultats de l'expérience sont partagés. D'une part, il apparaît évident que cette méthode suscite plus de participation chez les gestionnaires dans la formulation des budgets; cette participation accrue produit — nous a-t-on affirméà plusieurs reprises — des effets positifs sur le perfectionnement du personnel et sur la planification des programmes. L'expérience a eu aussi pour effet d'engendrer des informations plus nombreuses et de meilleure qualité aux fins de justification des demands budgétaires. Cependant, l'information n'a de valeur que dans la mesure où elle augmente la probabilité que de meilleurs choix seront effectués. Or, dans aucun cas, il n'a été possible d'identifier des changements dans les budgets alloués ou dans le contenu des programmes qui ne seraient pas survenus avec l'emploi des méthodes traditionnelles de préparation des budgets. Nous ne croyons pas que cette absence d'impact sur la fiscalité ou sur les programmes témoigne de façon concluante contre la méthode du zbb , mais c'est une mise en garde pour ceux qui seraient tentés de surestimer les avantages de cette méthode.