RACE AND CRIME IN POSTWAR AMERICA: DETERMINANTS OF AFRICAN-AMERICAN AND WHITE RATES, 1957–1988*

The idea that crime and deviance are explained mostly by access to opportunities—especially those provided by employment, income, education, and family stability—is one of the most powerful assumptions about crime in postwar America. However, despite its importance, the actual relationship between opportunity measures and crime during this period remains little understood. while cross-sectional studies of these issues have become common, few longitudinal studies exist and those that do include a limited number of variables. Moreover, despite important differences in the history and experiences of African-Americans and whites during this period, researchers have assumed similar dynamics by race. In this paper, we use annual time-series data from 1957–1988 to examine the effects of economic well-being, educational attainment, and family stability on rates of robbery, burglary, and homicide for blacks and whites. Our results show that these measures have different—usually opposite—effects on black and white crime rates during the period. In general, measures of opportunity have expected effects on white but not black rates. We consider the implications for policy and research.     

THE IMPACT OF BRITISH COUNTERTERRORIST STRATEGIES ON POLITICAL VIOLENCE IN NORTHERN IRELAND: COMPARING DETERRENCE AND BACKLASH MODELS*

Since philosophers Beccaria and Bentham, criminologists have been concerned with predicting how governmental attempts to maintain lawful behavior affect subsequent rates of criminal violence. In this article, we build on prior research to argue that governmental responses to a specific form of criminal violence—terrorism—may produce both a positive deterrence effect (i.e., reducing future incidence of prohibited behavior) and a negative backlash effect (i.e., increasing future incidence of prohibited behavior). Deterrence‐based models have long dominated both criminal justice and counterterrorist policies on responding to violence. The models maintain that an individual's prohibited behavior can be altered by the threat and imposition of punishment. Backlash models are more theoretically scattered but receive mixed support from several sources, which include research on counterterrorism; the criminology literature on labeling, legitimacy, and defiance; and the psychological literature on social power and decision making. In this article, we identify six major British strategies aimed at reducing political violence in Northern Ireland from 1969 to 1992 and then use a Cox proportional hazard model to estimate the impact of these interventions on the risk of new attacks. In general, we find the strongest support for backlash models. The only support for deterrence models was a military surge called Operation Motorman, which was followed by significant declines in the risk of new attacks. The results underscore the importance of considering the possibility that antiterrorist interventions might both increase and decrease subsequent violence.     

DOES DROPPING OUT OF SCHOOL MEAN DROPPING INTO DELINQUENCY?*

Approximately one third of U.S. high‐school freshmen do not earn their high‐school diploma on time. For African‐American and Hispanic students, this figure nearly reaches one half. The long‐term economic consequences of dropping out of school for both the student and the larger community have been well documented. It has also been argued that school dropouts put themselves at a higher risk for delinquent and criminal behavior when they leave school. Although it seems plausible that dropping out might increase the potential for delinquent conduct, another view states that dropping out is simply the final event in a long, gradual process of disenchantment and disengagement from school. Dropouts show evidence of school failure and developmental problems years in advance. It has been argued, therefore, that the actual event of finally leaving school has no causal effect on criminal or delinquent behavior because it has been so long in coming. In this article, we examine the effect of leaving school early, and the reason for dropping out, on delinquent behavior with the use of panel data models from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 Cohort (NLSY97). Through an appeal to identity theory, we hypothesize that the effect of dropping out is not uniform but varies by the reason for leaving school, gender, and time. This conjecture receives only partial empirical support. Implications for future work in the area are discussed.     

Executive Decree Authority in Brazil: How Reactive Legislators Influence Policy

Abstract At first glance, wide‐ranging presidential decree authority suggests executive branch domination of legislatures. However, decree power may also be a rational delegation of authority by legislators, in accord with their political objectives. Seen in this light, the key issue for legislators is not halting decree authority but reducing the agency losses that result from delegation. This paper shows how decree authority, as practiced in Brazil, constitutes an example of rational delegation by a legislature in which seniority and policy specialization are relatively undervalued. Brazilian legislators prefer to endow presidents with broad decree power and then monitor presidents on an issue‐by‐issue basis by amending executive decrees. This method of “oversight after delegation” lowers the transaction costs of delegation and speaks to the influence of Brazilian legislators over what is typically seen as an important source of presidential power.     

PEER GROUP INTERVENTIONS TO REDUCE THE RISK OF DELINQUENT BEHAVIOR: A SELECTIVE REVIEW AND A NEW EVALUATION*

Evaluations of correctional treatment programs for criminal offenders and of school-based delinquency prevention programs based on Guided-Group Interaction (GGI) and similar interventions are critically reviewed. One study—the Provo Experiment—provided convincing evidence for the superiority of a community treatment program involving GGI over incarceration (for persons who would otherwise be incarcerated) and modest superiority over probation (for persons who would otherwise be assigned probation). Some evaluations of school-based prevention programs involving GGI derivatives that have been cited as supporting the efficacy of these programs are flawed and may be misleading. A new experimental evaluation of a school-based intervention based on a GGI derivative implies that it increased delinquent behavior among students exposed to it.     

A TEST OF THE ORTEGA HYPOTHESIS IN CRIMINOLOGY

Following J. Cole and S. Cole (1973), we attempt to ascertain whether important scientific work is dependent upon works of lesser quality for fruition. The “Ortega hypothesis” posits such a dependence, and we test this assertion in criminology. Using some 2700 works published in criminology between 1945 and 1972, we demonstrate that less important works (those with few citations) are rarely utilized by much more important papers (those with the highest citation counts). The Ortega hypothesis is refuted, and most criminological literature contributes nothing or little that is useful to the field. This corroborates the conditions found by the Coles to exist in physics after their test of Ortega. The data we use are from Wolfgang et al. (1978).     

GENDER,FEAR, AND PROTECTIVE HANDGUN OWNERSHIP*

Nonrecursive models which have been used to assess the potentially reciprocal relationship between fear of crime and handgun ownership may suffer on two accounts: (a) the use of “weak” instrumental variables: and (b) the measurement of household (versus personal) handgun ownership. Data from the 1980 NORC General Social Survey are used in this study to minimize these problems in examining the relationships among fear of crime, victimization, and protective handgun ownership among males and females. Significant effects of fear and victimization on personal gun ownership are found among men but not among women. These results are discussed in light of two concerns. First, earlier research is confirmed that finds gender differences in the factors influencing gun ownership. Second, a clear need is emphasized for further research addressing questions of both conceptualization and measurement in the study of fear of crime and its effects on protective handgun ownership.     

CITIZEN GUN OWNERSHIP AND CRIMINAL DETERRENCE: THEORY,RESEARCH, AND POLICY*

Research on the general and specific deterrents emanating from citizenowned firearms is examined under assumptions about deterrence. Only slight and indirect empirical evidence for deterrence exists in the area of citizen gun ownership. The crime-reducing effects associated with public policies that support civilian gun ownership are balanced in light of other, negative public health factors associated with citizen-owned guns.