The political advantage of a volatile market: the relationship between Presidential popularity and the ‘investor fear gauge’

• The Chicago Board Options Exchange's (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX) is the premier established benchmark of near‐term market volatility. It is also referred to as the ‘investor fear gauge’ because it provides a consistent measure of market turmoil. We examine the VIX as it relates to Presidential popularity as indicated by the Gallup Organization's ongoing poll of US Presidential approval ratings. Our analysis indicates that the expected volatility of the market is highly related to Presidential approval. We then examine the strength and implications of this relationship in order to further establish the link between the economy and Presidential approval.

Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Encouraging Residential Moves to Opportunity Neighborhoods: An Experiment Testing Incentives Offered to Housing Voucher Recipients

Substantial benefits can accrue from living in low-poverty neighborhoods, yet approximately 80% of the 2.2 million Housing Choice Voucher (HCV) recipients rent homes in moderate- or high-poverty census tracts. The Chicago Regional Housing Choice Initiative tested several ways to promote opportunity moves. It included the first experiment that tests whether two types of light-touch incentives induce opportunity moves for HCV recipients who had requested a moving voucher. Based on the 2,005 HCV recipients in the study, we found that neither the offer of a $500 grant nor the offer of a $500 grant coupled with free mobility counseling induced opportunity moves. The receipt of mobility counseling also did not boost opportunity moves. Regardless of the type of offer, 11%–12% of participants moved to opportunity neighborhoods. Despite requesting a moving voucher, half of the study participants remained in place, indicating significant barriers to moving. We offer potential reasons for the results and conclude with two recommended pilots to increase opportunity moves.     

Reply to Miller on agendas and sincerity

Contrary to Miller, Farquharson’s agenda trees do omit real parliamentary information. And the assumptions he uses to justify Farquharson’s definition of sincere (or naive) voting justify too little (e.g., he drops maximax) and rule out too much (e.g., non-pre-set agendas and principled sincere voting).     

An analysis of ritualistic and religion-related child abuse allegations

A stratified random sample survey of clinical members of the American Psychological Association was conducted to determine the number and nature of cases involving alleged ritualistic and religion-related child abuse, whether reported directly by children or retrospectively by adults. Results indicated that only a minority of clinical psychologists have encountered ritual cases, but of those, the vast majority believe their clients' claims. Even so, the purported evidence for the allegations, especially in cases reported by adults claining to have suffered the abuse during childhood, is questionable. Most clients who allege ritual abuse are diagnosed as having multiple personality disorder or post-traumatic stress disorder, two increasingly popular, but controversial, psychological diagnoses.Clinical and legal implications are discussed and a future research agenda is urged.     

ENABLING CHILDREN OF DIVORCE TO WIN

Divorce mediators, attorneys, judges, and psychologists approach the issues in marriage dissolution from disparate vantage points. Legal niceties, actuarial acrobatics, and egosaving mechanisms tend to dominate the proceedings. Too often, however, some of the professionals have neither the training nor the experience to recognize the potential impact of such decisions on the children of divorce. The children rarely have an advocate whose sole task it is to make certain that their "best interests" are truly served. Questions are raised and suggestions for research are offered in an effort to reduce children's victimization and enable them to emerge as winners.     

Certification – An Overview

Delinquents are better managed in the juvenile court, though the adult system may be necessary for the few cases in which juvenile facilities and jurisdictional time remaining cannot adequately protect the public.     

Disentangling the racial test score gap: Probing the evidence in a large urban school district

We examine the size and distribution of the gap in test scores across races within New York City public schools and the factors that explain these gaps. While gaps are partially explained by differences in student characteristics, such as poverty, differences in schools attended are also important. At the same time, substantial within‐school gaps remain and are only partly explained by differences in academic preparation across students from different race groups. Controlling for differences in classrooms attended explains little of the remaining gap, suggesting little role for within‐school inequities in resources. There is some evidence that school characteristics matter. Race gaps are negatively correlated with school size—implying small schools may be helpful. In addition, the trade‐off between the size and experience of the teaching staff in urban schools may carry unintended consequences for within‐school race gaps. © 2006 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.