Microcycles of Violence: Evidence from Terrorist Attacks by ETA and the FMLN

Recent research has demonstrated that individual crimes elevate the risk for subsequent crimes nearby, a phenomenon termed “near-repeats.” Yet these assessments only reveal global patterns of event interdependence, ignoring the possibility that individual events may be part of localized bursts of activity, or microcycles. In this study, we propose a method for identifying and analyzing criminal microcycles; groups of events that are proximate to each other in both space and time. We use the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) to analyze over 4,000 terrorist attacks attributed to the FMLN in El Salvador and the ETA in Spain; two terrorist organizations that were both extremely active and violent but differed greatly in terms of history, grievances and motives. Based on the definition developed, we find strong support for the conclusion that many of the terrorist attacks attributed to these two distinctive groups were part of violent microcycles and that the spatio-temporal attack patterns of these two groups exhibit substantial similarities. Our logistic regression analysis shows that for both ETA and the FMLN, compared to other tactics used by terrorists, bombings and non-lethal attacks are more likely to be part of microcycles and that compared to attacks which occur elsewhere, attacks aimed at national or provincial capitals or areas of specific strategic interest to the terrorist organization are more likely to be part of microcycles. Finally, for the FMLN only, compared to other attacks, those on military and government targets were more likely part of microcycles. We argue that these methods could be useful more generally for understanding the situational and temporal distribution of crime.     

Judicial Representations of Scientific Evidence

A critical examination of the way that courts handle scientific expert evidence reveals inconsistency in strategies for validating and legitimating the weight attached to it. This inconsistency is rooted in perceptions of the nature of scientific knowledge. The essay considers the implications of this analysis for the Woolf reforms of civil procedure with respect to expert evidence.     

Disentangling the Crime-arrest Relationship: The Influence of Social Context

Drawing on the economic and conflict perspectives of crime control, as well as insights from the tipping effect literature, the present investigation examines the extent to which the social context within which potential offenders operate tempers the macro-level, reciprocal relationship between crime and arrests. We use autoregressive integrated moving average techniques to assess the extent to which the April 2001 race-related riot in Cincinnati, Ohio conditions the reciprocal relationship between property crime and arrests for the entire city and disaggregated by police district. Consistent with a majority of prior longitudinal studies, our analyses for the entire length of the times series reveal no evidence of an association between our measures of crime and arrest, regardless of the level of spatial aggregation. In contrast to the results from our baseline models, the post-riot transfer function models indicate that there is a reciprocal association between crime and arrests that is contingent upon the social context. The implications of our findings for the further study of the reciprocal relationship between crime and arrests are discussed.     

What drives national support for multilateral climate finance? International and domestic influences on Australia’s shifting stance

The fulfilment of wealthy countries’ commitment to mobilise $100 billion a year in climate finance by 2020 will hinge on maintaining domestic political support in contributor countries. Predictability in flows of climate finance is likely to enhance the overall stability of the climate finance system and the broader climate regime. However, at present it remains unclear how the 2020 target will be achieved and little is known about what drives fluctuations in support among contributor countries. This article explores domestic and international factors that may explain fluctuations in national support through a case study of Australia’s climate finance from 2007 to 2015. Drawing on documentary analysis and interviews with officials and stakeholders, the paper tracks two domestic factors that may influence support for climate finance—the government’s political orientation and public concern about climate change—and two international factors—commitment to multilateral agreements and international peer pressure. While some accounts view climate policy choices as being driven primarily by domestic factors, we find that the government’s political orientation on domestic climate policy and aid explains some but not all variations in Australia’s stance on climate finance. International peer group effects have moderated the positions of two governments that were otherwise reluctant to act on climate change. National policy reforms combined with improved multilateral oversight and more established replenishment cycles could bolster support in contributor countries and thereby strengthen the capacity of the climate finance system.     

Transfers of mentally disordered adolescents from custodial settings to psychiatric hospital in England and Wales 2004–2014

This article has used data provided by the Ministry of Justice to track changes in the number of adolescents under the age of 18 transferred from secure custodial institutions, who have required transfer to psychiatric hospital using Section 47 and Section 48 of the Mental Health Act. During the period 2004–2014 there were large reductions in the population of young people detained in custody in England and Wales. The number of young people requiring hospital transfer fell during this period but to a much lesser degree. The possible reasons for this are discussed and include the increased complexity of young people in custody and the increased availability of secure psychiatric beds.     

Incapacity of the Mind Secondary to Medication Misuse as a Not Criminally Responsible Defense

The manifestations of disorders of the mind may play a role in the occurrence of criminal behavior. In the majority of the cases, the presence of a psychiatric disorder is cited as the reason that an individual was not fully aware of his behavior. However, other conditions, such as seizure disorders or hypoglycemia, have also been linked to an inability to understand the nature and consequences of one's actions. On occasion, these situations can be explained by a state of automatism that may be described as insane or noninsane. In this article, we describe the case of a 77‐year‐old man, suffering from Parkinson's disease, where the issue of criminal responsibility associated with incapacity of the mind secondary to medication misuse was raised. We elaborate on the thinking behind this opinion and the implications according to Canadian law. Although the legal outcome of this case is specific to our jurisdiction, the clinical implication may be common to any patient suffering from a similar condition and may inform physicians, families, and lawyers.