The information content of elections and varieties of the partisan political business cycle

This event study uses economic forecasts and opinion polls to measure the response of expectations to election surprise. Use of forecast data complements older work on partisan cycles by allowing a tighter link between election and response thereby mitigating concerns of endogeneity and omitted variables. I find that forecasters respond swiftly and significantly to election surprise. I further argue that the response ought to vary across countries with different institutional foundations. In support, I find that there exist three distinct patterns in forecasters’ responses to partisan surprise corresponding to Hall and Soskice’s three varieties of capitalism.     

Umbilical cord blood banking and the next generation of human tissue regulation: an agenda for research

The transformation of umbilical cord blood from being a waste product to being a valuable source of stem cells has led to the emergence of significant legal, ethical and social issues. This editorial proposes an agenda for research into the regulation of umbilical cord blood banking which focuses on issues of characterisation, consent, the interplay of public and private services, and the importance of applying property concepts. It concludes by stressing the need for reform to be based on well-informed public debate.     

“Knowledge and Death Penalty Opinion: The Marshall Hypotheses Revisited.”

This study tests the three hypotheses derived from the written opinion of Justice Thurgood Marshall in Furman v Georgia in 1972. Subjects completed questionnaires at the beginning and the end of the fall a semester. Experimental group subjects were enrolled in a death penalty class, while control group subjects were enrolled in another criminal justice class. The death penalty class was the experimental stimulus. Findings provided strong support for the first and third hypotheses, i.e., subjects were generally lacking in death penalty knowledge before the experimental stimulus, and death penalty proponents who scored “high” on a retribution index did not change their death penalty opinions despite exposure to death penalty knowledge. Marshall’s second hypothesis--that death penalty knowledge and death penalty support were inversely related--was not supported by the data. Two unexpected findings were that death penalty proponents who scored “low” on a retribution index also did not change their death penalty opinions after becoming more informed about the subject, and that death penalty knowledge did not alter subjects’ initial retributive positions. Suggestions for future research are provided.     

Beveridge at Eighty: Learning the Right Lessons

The eightieth anniversary of the Beveridge inquiry is a timely moment to consider how the landmark report is used within contemporary UK politics. Calls for a ‘new Beveridge’ reflect a desire for a rupture with the past and the creation of a radical new welfare consensus. But this reflects a misunderstanding: Beveridge's approach was organic in nature, building on decades of experimentation, politically contested rather than consensual, and intellectually pluralist rather than moored to a single ideological worldview. The real insight Beveridge offers us today flows not from his substantive agenda—which was rooted in a particular set of historic circumstances—but as an approach to securing social reform. Successful welfare advances over the last generation have drawn on these ‘Beveridgean instincts’. Rather than calling for a new twenty-first century blueprint to be handed down from above, reformers should build on experimentation and successful incremental change, from within the UK and abroad.     

Can Social Media Predict Election Results? Evidence From New Zealand

The importance of social media for election campaigning has received a lot of attention recently. Using data from the 2011 New Zealand general election and the size of candidates’ social media networks on Facebook and Twitter, we investigate whether social media is associated with election votes and probability of election success. Overall, our results suggest that there is a statistically significant relationship between the size of online social networks and election voting and election results. However, the size of the effect is small and it appears that social media presence is therefore only predictive in closely contested elections.     

Linking Law and New Governance: Examining Gaps,Hybrids, and Integration in Water Policy

Since the 1980s there have been significant shifts from traditional environmental enforcement toward networks, cooperation, and more pluralized forms of governance. The most recent iterations of these new approaches are increasingly characterized as New Environmental Governance (NEG). A range of common characteristics that include collaboration, participation, adaptation, and nonbinding guidelines and agreements define NEG approaches. Despite a growing NEG literature, it is unclear whether and how NEG can be effectively implemented in the same policy domain as traditional hard law. This article empirically explores and theorizes the dynamics of NEG's interaction with conventional law. It proposes a spectrum of eight possible interactions between traditional law and NEG approaches, before evaluating three distinct perspectives, namely, gaps, NEG in the shadow of the law, and integration. It studies these relationships by empirically evaluating three case studies from Australia, New Zealand, and the United States that correspond to these interactions. The article explores the strengths and weaknesses of the three relationships. It finds that a significant barrier to achieving productive cohesion between law and NEG is the worldview of regulators, who eschew NEG collaboration as ineffectual or incompatible with hard law. Recommendations are offered on how to better achieve cohesive implementation between law and NEG.