Special drawing rights and development aid

This article examines the case for establishing a link between the creation of Special Drawing Rights and development aid, analyses the various objections that have been raised against the idea, and describes several possible mechanisms for making the link operative. It then considers the national burden sharing, balance of payments and foreign exchange reserve implications of an ‘organic’ link. Finally, it suggests how, in the context of international monetary reform, the disposal of the large outstanding dollar and sterling reserve‐currency holdings of the developed countries could also be linked with aid to the developing countries.     

Measuring the validity and reliability of forensic likelihood-ratio systems

There has been a great deal of concern recently about validity and reliability in forensic science. This paper reviews for a broad target audience metrics of validity and reliability (accuracy and precision) which have been applied in forensic voice comparison and which are potentially applicable in other branches of forensic science. The metric of validity is the log likelihood-ratio cost (C_llr), and the metric of reliability is an empirical estimate of credible intervals. A revised procedure for the calculation of credible intervals is introduced.     

Arenas without Rules and the Policy Change Process: Outsider Groups and British Roads Policy

A key task of governments is to construct and manage systems of consultation whereby the vast array of interest groups seeking to influence public policy can be accommodated. Conventional wisdom holds that key insider groups secure for themselves special privileges, not least of which is an ability to prevent radical policy change. A concomitant view is that public policy emerges from relatively stable networks of actors who have some mutual resource dependencies. One reason why this paradigm is showing signs of intellectual fatigue is that it seems weak in explaining policy change. Yet, policy change does take place. Indeed, it is one of the characteristics of the 1980s and 1990s. This article examines an example of the traditional modalities of consultation failing to accommodate new interests, knowledge and ideas. This breakdown appears to have occurred by the use of alternative policy 'arenas without rules' by outsider groups, leading to a radical new 'framing' of transport policy. Moreover, government has failed to constrain the new policy issues in predictable and stable systems of consultation.     

C. Reviews and notes bibliographies and works of reference

GRAMMAIRE ARABE A L'USAGE DES ELEVES DE L'ECOLE SPECIALE DES LANGUES ORIENTALES VIVANTES. By A. SILVESTRE de SACY. Paris 1831, reprinted Paris, Institut du Monde Arabe, [ca. 1987]. 2 vols. xxx, 608; 697pp. FF. 350.‐.

LERNWORTSCHATZ ARABISCH. By INGELORE GOLDMANN‐MUTLAK. (Modernes Arabisch, eds. Wolfgang Reuschel and Günther Krahl.) Leipzig, Verlag Enzyklopädie, 1990. 315pp. DM40.‐.

DICTIONARY OF POST‐CLASSICAL YEMENI ARABIC. By MOSHE PIAMENTA. Leiden, Brill, 1990. 2 vols. xxiv, 541 pp. Hfl 165.‐.

IRAN AND THE ARABIAN PENINSULA: ECONOMIC STRUCTURE AND ANALYSIS. London, Economist Intelligence Unit, 1991. 245pp. £145.

THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA 1992. London, Europa Publications, 1991. xxii, 1024pp. £115.

KURZBIBLIOGRAPHIE: PROBLEME UND PERSPEKTIVEN EINER VOLLMITGLIEDSCHAFT DER TÜRKEI IN DER EUROPÄISCHEN GEMEINSCHAFT. Compiled by G. HANSEN. Hamburg, Deutsches Übersee‐Institut, 1989. 26pp. DM8.‐

ALBANIA. Edited by WILLIAM B. BLAND. (World Bibliographical Series, 94.) Oxford, Clio Press, 1988. xxxvi, 290pp. 1 map. £39.50.

THE TIMURID ARCHITECTURE OF IRAN AND TURAN. By L. GOLOMBEK and D. WILBER. Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1988. 2 vols. 510pp., 16 colour plates, 481 black‐and‐white plates, 8 maps, 162 plans and sections, 45 text figs. US$130.‐     

Book reviews

Realism, Idealism and International Politics: A Reinterpretation

By M. Griffiths, Routledge: London, 1992, 206pp(hbk), £35.00

International Conflict Resolution: The US‐USSR and Middle East Cases

By Louis Kriesberg, Yale University Press: 1992.

Deterring Democracy

By Noam Chomsky, Vintage Press, 1992, 439pp £7.99(pbk) ISBN 0–09–913501–9.

Arab Military Industry: Capability, Performance, and Impact

By Yezid Sayigh. Brassey's, London, £38.00/$49.50. ISBN 0–08–041777–9.

The Velvet Revolution: Czechoslovakia 1988–91

By Bernard Wheaton and Zdenek Kavan, Westview Press, 1992.

Peace Without Hiroshima: Secret Action at the Vatican in the Spring of 1945

By Martin S. Quigley. Madison Books: Lanham, Maryland, 1991. 169pp.

Historical Discord in the Nile Valley

By Gabriel R. Warburg, London: Hurst & Company Ltd, 1992, £27.50.

To Loose the Bands of Wickedness: International Intervention in Defence of Human Rights

Nigel Rodley (Ed). Brassey's (UK), 1992. 287pp(HBk). ISBN l‐85753‐()47‐().