International Conflict and the Tenure of Leaders: Is War Still Ex Post Inefficient?

Recent work in comparative politics and international relations has shown a marked shift toward leaders as the theoretical unit of analysis. In most of the new theoretical models a core assumption is that leaders act to stay in power. There exists, however, remarkably little systematic empirical knowledge about the factors that affect the tenure of leaders. To provide a baseline of empirical results we explore how a broad range of domestic and international factors affects the tenure of leaders. We focus in particular on the effect of conflict and its outcome. We find that political institutions fundamentally mediate the costs and benefits of international conflict and that war is not necessarily ex post inefficient for leaders. This suggests that the assumption that war is ex post inefficient for unitary rational actors can not be simply extended to leaders. Therefore, a focus on leaders may yield important new rationalist explanations for war .     

Small Firms’ Formalisation: The Stick Treatment

Firm informality is pervasive throughout the developing world, Bangladesh being no exception. The informal status of many firms substantially reduces the tax basis and therefore impacts the provision of public goods. The literature on encouraging formalisation has predominantly focused on reducing the direct costs of formalisation and has found negligible impacts of such policies. In this paper, we focus on a stick intervention, which to the best of our knowledge is the first one in a developing country setting that deals with the most direct and dominant form of informality, that is registration with the tax authority with a direct link to the country’s potential revenue base and thus public goods provision. We implement an experiment in which randomly selected firms are visited by tax representatives who deliver an official letter from the Bangladesh National Tax Authority stating that the firm is not registered and the consequential punishment if the firm fails to register. We find that the intervention increases the rate of registration among treated firms, while firms located in the same market but not treated do not seem to respond significantly. We also find that only larger revenue firms at baseline respond to the threat and register. Our findings have at least two important policy implications: i) the enforcement angle, which could be an important tool to encourage formalisation; and ii) targeting of government resources for formalisation to high-end informal firms. The effects are generally small in levels and this leaves open the question of why many firms still do not register.     

Divorce and separations in eighteenth-century France: An outline for a social history of law

Marriage breakdown is now common in western society, but it is hardly a new phenomenon. The article investigates the mechanisms and juridical representations of divorce and separation in eighteenth-century France, and argues that if in that century divorce was connected to the secularization of the state, during the 1789 Revolution it gained a new autonomy because of the efforts to add a new article at the universal declaration of human rights. The images of divorce still current today suggest an eighteenth-century past when marriage dissolution was conceived of as a phenomenon involving a more inclusive context of relations and not just as an isolated element of the social reality. Then, discussion of marriage as well as of divorce belonged to a larger domain of family relations and social attitudes, as is evident in the civic representations of these phenomena.     

Platforms,media and voters

Abstract The paper presents data on party platforms, political communication and public opinion in the 1996 Italian election campaign. It is shown that the electoral platforms of the two major coalitions were largely overlapping, except for some economic and social issues. The centre–right coalition seemed more inclined to adopt pro–market policies, while the platform of the Ulivo coalition was more oriented toward a social partnership approach. In the month before the elections, policy issues were discussed on television more extensively than political issues. Public and private networks covered the 1996 election campaign at the same level as in 1994 and to some extent with the same bias. Voting intentions seem to have remained stable prior to and during the electoral campaign.