Violent Sex Offenses: How are They Best Measured from Official Records?

In the United States, sexually violent predator (SVP) commitment statutes generally require assessment of an offender's risk of subsequent sexual violence. Current actuarial methods for predicting sexual reoffending were actually designed to predict something else—charges or convictions for offenses deemed sexual based on information obtained from police “rapsheets” alone. This study examined the referral and past offenses of 177 sex offenders. Results showed that police rapsheets (and data based on them) underestimated the number and severity of sexually motivated violent offenses for which sex offenders were actually apprehended. Rapsheet violent offenses seemed a more accurate index of the conduct addressed by SVP legislation than were rapsheet sex offenses. We suggest that, when evaluating sex offenders for SVP status, actuarial instruments designed to predict violent recidivism (as measured by rapsheet violent reoffenses) might be preferable to those designed to predict sexual recidivism (as measured by rapsheet sexual reoffenses).

村党支部与村民选举关系之探讨

村民选举与自治制度是中国政治变革的重要部份,也是最有成效的领域之一.面对村民选举而来的压力与挑战,村党支部通常会采取各种方法来控制村民选举以维系其领导核心之地位.村民选举出来的村委会的确挑战了村党支部的权威,一定程度上重新分配了村级权力,并且推进了党内民主政治的发展,其典型就是"两票制"的出现与广泛的推行.     

Experimental results on data analysis algorithms for extracting and interpreting edge feature data for duct tape and textile physical fit examinations

A physical fit is an important observation that can result from the forensic analysis of trace evidence as it conveys a high degree of association between two items. However, physical fit examinations can be time-consuming, and potential bias from analysts may affect judgment. To overcome these shortcomings, a data analysis algorithm using mutual information and a decision tree has been developed to support practitioners in interpreting the evidence. We created these tools using data obtained from physical fit examinations of duct tape and textiles analyzed in previous studies, along with the reasoning behind the analysts' decisions. The relative feature importance is described by material type, enhancing the knowledge base in this field. Compared with the human analysis, the algorithms provided accuracies above 90%, with an improved rate of true positives for most duct tape subsets. Conversely, false positives were observed in high-quality scissor cut (HQ-HT-S) duct tape and textiles. As such, it is advised to use these algorithms in tandem with human analysis. Furthermore, the study evaluated the accuracy of physical fits when only partial sample lengths are available. The results of this investigation indicated that acceptable accuracies for correctly identifying true fits and non-fits occurred when at least 35% of a sample length was present. However, lower accuracies were observed for samples prone to stretching or distortion. Therefore, the models described here can provide a valuable supplementary tool but should not be the sole means of evaluating samples.     

The Ratio of 6β‐Hydroxycortisol to Cortisol in Urine as a Measure of Cytochrome P450 3A Activity in Postmortem Cases

Poisoning can occur with chronic accumulation of a drug due to reduced metabolic capacity; conversely, under‐treatment may occur due to an increased metabolic rate. Over half of all drugs are metabolized by the cytochrome P450 3A complex (CYP3A). The activity of CYP3A can be assessed by the urinary ratio of 6β‐hydroxycortisol to cortisol. The aim of this study was to determine the usefulness of this ratio as a postmortem marker for determining whether altered CYP3A enzyme activity occurred prior to death. In a series of 244 postmortem cases, this ratio ranged from 0.014 to 78.6 (median 3.50). The median was significantly higher (5.14) in a subgroup of 28 cases that exhibited the presence of CYP3A‐inducing drugs. In cirrhosis, the median ratio was 1.69. This pointed to a reduced metabolic capacity of CYP3A. Thus, the ratio may constitute a rough indicator of the CYP3A metabolic capacity, which could be of value in special cases.     

论国际战略的历史演进与新时代中国力量的文化呈现

从世界历史来看,国际战略总体遵循一种“军事战-经济战-知识战”的演进流程,即权力由以武力为基础转向以资本为基础、再转向以知识文化为基础。当今世界,文化越来越成为一种重要的权力资源,在中国国家综合国力的要素构成中,文化的作用日益受到重视、地位不断提升。文化蕴涵的权力属性进一步彰显。中国特色社会主义进入新时代,中国在发展成一个全球经济大国的同时,也在着力开掘中华民族优秀传统文化的战略张力,着眼于文化创新和知识创新,增强国家的文化软实力,成长为一个更加自信的文化强国。     

Peace-building Through Space-making: The Spatializing Effects of the African Union’s Peace and Security Policies

ABSTRACT

This article is discussing how the peace-building practices of the African Union have distinct ordering and space-making effects. Taking a socio-spatial perspective, it is argued that the peace and security projects through which the African Union, as a spatial entrepreneur, is addressing the scourge of ‘terrorism and violent extremism’ are geared towards (re-)establishing sovereignty that member states have lost in the past over their territories. While the African Union is favouring a spatial format that could be called ‘multiple networked regionalism’, the actual socio-spatial orders that are emerging around Africa’s transregional conflicts are far less clear cut.     

创新持续到创新深化:地方政府治理创新能力构建的关键要素

在推进国家治理能力和治理体系现代化的进程中,地方政府治理创新能力的构建至关重要,从关注“创新持续”到“创新深化”视角的转化,正是体现地方政府治理创新能力发生着深刻的重构。论文以创新持续到创新深化的内生化理论模型为基础,识别五个创新深化的核心要素,即组织创新文化、多元主体嵌入、技术嵌入便捷性、创新模块开放性、领导者赋能,并选取地方政府创新奖中西北地区的十个案例,运用定性比较分析,探索并验证核心要素的多重并发因果路径。论文研究表明,五个核心要素在领导者赋能为基础条件下,形成创新文化型创新、模块嵌套型创新、外在嵌入型创新三种创新路径模式。     

Knowledge production on conflict early warning at the African Union

ABSTRACT

How does the African Union (AU) generate knowledge about on-going violent conflict as well as post-conflict situations? This article offers an analysis of the multiple sites and sources in the construction of conflict-related knowledge. It also reflects on the various institutional ways this knowledge is filtered into the activities of a wide range of AU actors, starting with the AU Commission, the AU Commission Chairperson and the Peace and Security Council. Emphasis is on the development of the Continental Early Warning System and some of its limitations, the latter partly related to the specific organisational culture of the African Union.