Automobile theft: Estimating the size of the criminal population

Animal abundance estimation procedures including a new method of Zelterman are applied in the criminological context of auto theft in the Australian Capital Territory. Using goodness-of-fit statistics and comparing the estimates with known clearance rates, it is estimated that during 1987 about 39% of offenders were charged with at least one count of auto theft. The results also indicate the extent of overrepresentation of juveniles in court statistics compared with their relative participation rate in auto theft.     

Party finance in Russia: Has the 2001 law ‘on political parties’ made a difference?

The 2001 law ‘On political parties’ instituted several substantive changes to party finance in Russia. This article examines these elements of the law on parties, which have so far received little attention, to ascertain the aims of this party-funding reform, the extent to which these aims have been realised, and what impact—if any—the financial terms of the law have had on party finance. The article draws on new sources, namely parties' annual financial accounts, to shed fresh light on party funding in Russia and on the presidential administration's attitude to party finance.     

"政治伊斯兰"现象解析

近年来,穆斯林世界中伊斯兰教政治化的现象格外突出,不仅冲击着穆斯林国家中的世俗政权,而且不时地与“西方文明”发生激烈的摩擦和碰撞,已经引起各国政界及学术界的密切关注。美国知名学者格雷厄姆·E·富勒在其2003年出版的专著《政治伊斯兰的未来》中对此进行了入微分析。现将该书的主要内容综合介绍如下:何谓“政治伊斯兰”“政治伊斯兰”(“PoliticalIslam”或“Islamism”)是伊斯兰教政治化的直接产物,即“伊斯兰教中的政治”或“政治中的伊斯兰教”。严格地讲,伊斯兰教只是一种宗教信仰,并不具备政治意识形态的特性。然而,由于宗教…     

Technology,behavior, and safety: An empirical study of automobile occupant-protection regulation

Technology and human behavior can influence the effectiveness of safety policies. In the field of traffic safety, rational-choice theorists postulate that automobile safety devices induce increased driver risk taking. Such behavioral responses could partly or totally nullify the lifesaving potential of governmental safety rules for new cars, such as the crashworthiness standards adopted by the United States in the late 1960s and early 1970s. This study explores the behavioral-response hypothesis in the context of a car-vintage model of U.S. car occupant death rates. Results from the model imply that U.S. standards have reduced the occupant death rate by roughly 30 percent, a finding consistent with minimal driver response to safety devices. The study provides support for the technological approach to safety policy and suggests that policymakers might consider adopting additional crashworthiness regulations, such as some form of passive-restraint program.Financial support was provided by the Economic Studies Program, Brookings Institution. I thank Robert W. Crandall, Steven Garber, Lawrence Summers, and the editors for comments. All views and residual errors are solely my responsibility.