Virginia's Revenue Forecasting Process and Models

In Virginia, major differences between revenue forecasts and actual revenue collections raised questions from legislators about the adequacy of the state's econometric forecasting models and the forecasting process itself. Consequently, Virginia's process and models were examined by the Joint Legislative Audit and Review Commission (JLARC), a legislative watchdog agency. The review found most of the differences could be attributed to declining economic factors and not poor forecasting. However, a surprisingly large component of the forecast was based on undocumented judgmental inputs that required greater oversight. Other states in similar circumstances may wish to evaluate their own forecasting process and econometric models using the JLARC approach.     

Warriors in the “new world order”

He writes regularly on matters of strategy. His publications include The Strategic Dimension of Military Manpower;and Paradoxes of Power: The Military Establishment in the Eighties.     

Dimensions of the self-concept: A source of further distinctions in the nature of self-consciousness

This study distinguished between forms of self-consciousness (private self-consciousness and social anxiety) and investigated the effect of self-esteem, vulnerability to criticism, and the tendency to fantasize on each. Utilizing a sample of adolescents (age 12 to 19 years), a structural equation analysis using unobserved variables revealed that, as expected, vulnerability to others' criticism heightened both private self-consciousness and social anxiety. In contrast, the tendency to fantasize in everyday life increased only private self-consciousness, and low self-esteem led directly only to increased social anxiety. Further, results showed that self-esteem had an appreciable indirect effect on both private self-consciousness and social anxiety, as mediated by vulnerability and the tendency to fantasize, indicating that the effect of self-esteem (a primary motivator) was more complex than an analysis of direct effects would indicate. Implications for our understanding of self-consciousness and the self-concept are discussed.My deepest thanks go to Morris Rosenberg, whose insights into the self-concept were indispensable, both in conceptualization and in analysis. I also thank John A. Fleishman and Edward Z. Dager for their constructive comments on early drafts of this article. Any errors remaining are my responsibility.This study was supported by NIMH Grant R01 MH27747-06 awarded to Morris Rosenberg. The data were analyzed using the facilities of the Computer Science Center, University of Maryland, College Park.Professor Elliott received his Ph.D. in sociology at the University of Wisconsin, Madison. His current major interest is in the structure of the self-concept.     

Reducing violence in serious juvenile offenders using intensive treatment

This study reports on the reduction in violent offending in a population of serious and violent juvenile offenders following an intensive institutional treatment program. The treatment group (N=101) is compared to a similar group that was assessed but not treated (N=147). All youth were sent to the program from a juvenile corrections institution where they had received the customary rehabilitation services. The results show a significant reduction in the prevalence of recidivism in the treated group after controlling for time at risk in the community and other covariates. The effects of non-random group assignment were reduced by including a propensity score analysis procedure in the outcome analysis. Untreated comparison youth appeared to be about twice as likely to commit violent offenses as were treated youth (44% vs. 23%). Similarly, treated youth had significantly lower hazard ratios for recidivism in the in the community than the comparison youth, even after accounting for the effects of non-random group assignment.