Play context, commitment, and dating violence: a structural equation model

This study develops a structural equation model to describe the effect of two groups of factors (type of commitment and play context) on the violence experienced during intimate partner conflict. After contrasting the model in adolescents and university students, we have confirmed that aggressive play and the simulation of jealousy and anger increase the risk of dating victimization during conflicts through the negative reactions that they cause. Where commitment is concerned, the results are different according to whether commitment is personal or constraining. The former provides protection against dating victimization, reducing risk in the play context, whereas the latter has no effect on the violence experienced but facilitates a more dangerous play dynamic. The model can be applied in the design of programs to prevent dating violence.     

Effects of Indirect Exposure to Homicide Events on Children’s Mental Health: Evidence from Urban Settings in Colombia

Exposure to neighborhood violence is an important risk factor for the social and emotional development of children and youth. Previous work recognizes that violence may affect children indirectly via secondhand exposure; yet, few studies have aimed to identify and quantify these effects, especially in settings like Colombia where youth is chronically exposed to violence. To address this gap in the literature, this article implements an empirical strategy where geographically specific and time-stamped data are leveraged to identify the effect of indirect exposure to homicides on fifth grade children’s social and emotional outcomes. Sample participants (N?=?5801) represent the fifth-grade population of boys and girls (50.7%) in two major urban areas in the country (Mage?=?11.01, SD?=?0.75). We hypothesize that the effects of exposure to neighborhood violence on children’s social and emotional skills will be consistent and negative. The findings indicate a consistent negative effect of indirect exposure to homicides on children’s emotional functioning (i.e., emotional regulation and empathy), as well as on the prevalence of avoidance behaviors. However, contrary to theoretical expectations, the results do not support effects on children’s levels of aggressive behavior, nor on the beliefs and attitudes that justify the use of aggression in interpersonal relationships. The findings are discussed in light of predictions from social cognitive models and their implications for developmentally and trauma-informed interventions for youth.     

The Longitudinal Consistency of Mother–Child Reporting Discrepancies of Parental Monitoring and Their Ability to Predict Child Delinquent Behaviors Two Years Later

This study examined the longitudinal consistency of mother–child reporting discrepancies of parental monitoring and whether these discrepancies predict children’s delinquent behaviors 2 years later. Participants included 335 mother/female-caregiver and child (46% boys, >90% African American; age range 9–16 years [M = 12.11, SD = 1.60]) dyads living in moderate-to-high violence areas. Mother–child discrepancies were internally consistent within multiple assessment points and across measures through a 2-year follow-up assessment. Further, mothers who at baseline consistently reported higher levels of parental monitoring relative to their child had children who reported greater levels of delinquent behaviors 2 years later, relative to mother–child dyads that did not evidence consistent discrepancies. This finding could not be accounted for by baseline levels of the child’s delinquency, maternal and child emotional distress, or child demographic characteristics. This finding was not replicated when relying on the individual reports of parental monitoring to predict child delinquency, suggesting that mother–child reporting discrepancies provided information distinct from the absolute frequency of reports. Findings suggest that mother–child discrepancies in reports of parental monitoring can be employed as new individual differences measurements in developmental psychopathology research.     

Protective Factors Associated with Daily Affective Reactivity and Instability During Adolescence

The daily emotional experiences of adolescents are dynamic, vary significantly across individuals, and are crucial to their psychological adjustment, warranting a need to identify factors that promote adaptive affective responses to stressors and attenuated affective instability. The objective of this study, therefore, was to examine protective factors linked to individual differences in daily affective reactivity and instability utilizing a daily diary design in a national sample of 100 U.S. adolescents (13–17 years; 40% girls; 79% White). Adolescents completed a baseline survey and then 14 daily online surveys. Better mother-adolescent communication predicted lower negative affect reactivity, whereas greater use of problem-focused coping strategies predicted higher positive affect reactivity. Greater trait resilience and instrumental support seeking predicted lower negative affect instability. Conversely, more emotional support seeking predicted higher negative affect instability. No factors were associated with positive affect instability, and father-adolescent communication was unrelated to daily affective reactivity and instability. The findings implicate specific protective factors associated with distinct aspects of affective reactivity and instability.

     

Dynamics of State Modernization in Colombia: The Virtuous Cycle of Military Transformation

Military transformations are usually understood as linear processes involving diverse, steady, and costly initiatives to be achieved during a specific timeframe. However, other influencing elements, such as assessment, follow-up, and feedback from the personnel in charge of enforcing and evaluating their implementation, are often disregarded. This article seeks to bridge this information gap and provide a model to analyze the transformation of the military forces of Colombia as a virtuous cycle using the perceptions of its future implementers as its core and main evaluating resource. The questionnaire developed focuses on national interests and the roles and functions of the military forces, gathering the perceptions of officers who will be responsible for implementing the transformation. The statistical findings suggest that determining threats, factors of influence, obstacles, enhancers, and priorities such as drug trafficking, defense expenditure, conflict of interests, fiscal responsibility, and doctrine and policy are central to obtaining successful outcomes.     

Race and Women’s Imprisonment: Poverty, African American Presence, and Social Welfare

Female imprisonment rates have increased proportionately more than male imprisonment rates over recent decades. There are substantial race differences in women’s rates, as is the case for men. Yet, there has been little quantitative research on the correlates of women’s imprisonment using data over time, or on potential race differences in those correlates. The present research analyzes data on black and nonblack female imprisonment rates in the 50 states for the period 1981–2003. The analyses are guided substantively by existing research on race, social threat and criminal punishment, and theory and research on the penal-welfare hypothesis. The study uses bivariate-response multilevel modeling to simultaneously examine the factors associated with black and nonblack women’s imprisonment rates. The results show that black female imprisonment rates increase when the concentration of African Americans in metropolitan areas and poverty rates grow, whereas nonblack female imprisonment rates are unaffected by poverty rates and actually decrease when African American populations become more concentrated in metro areas. Both black and nonblack women’s imprisonment rates increase when welfare spending declines. The results are consistent with social threat perspectives and the penal-welfare hypotheses.     

A Leadership Selection Index for multi-ballot political party conventions in Canada

Eugene McGregor (Journal of Politics 35, 459–478, 1973) recognized a regularity in multi-ballot leadership conventions in the United States. He hypothesized that the change in absolute votes between the first and the second ballot could be used to forecast the eventual winner of a leadership race. When the McGregor model is applied to the Canadian multi-ballot conventions the prediction rate is only 57 per cent. This paper seeks first to discuss the qualitative similarities found between these Canadian conventions and then use this as a basis to develop and to apply a model that extends on McGregor's work. The developed model is called the Leadership Selection Index (LSI). We find that the winner of most Canadian multi-ballot conventions (86%) could be forecasted after the second ballot by using the LSI method of analysis. Based on the evidence from the literature and a survey of Canadian political conventions, we develop a hypothesis of ‘two critical conjunctures' for multi-ballot leadership conventions. This hypothesis provides a suitable theoretical framework to interpret the performance of our empirical model.