Can We Identify Bad Cops Based on History? Base Rates of Historical Markers in Law Enforcement Pre-employment Evaluations

While psychometric police selection processes have progressively evolved, the efficacy of simple background information has not been extensively evaluated. This study examined the utility of base rate information to predict job performance among law enforcement officers. Pre-employment historical markers from bad hires were compared to good hires from a large sample of 1536 officers. Of this sample, 205 officers were categorized as bad hires if they were arrested, had greater than five misconduct episodes, or were terminated for cause within 5 years following hire. Base rates of 40 pre-employment history variables were compared for good and bad hires. Analysis of markers showed that bad hires had a significantly higher frequency of markers across family factors, mental health variables, conduct problems, and criminal justice outcomes compared to good hires. Among the largest differences were history of multiple physical altercations, outpatient psychiatric treatment, and events related to previous law enforcement employment such as employer reprimands, suspensions, or fitness for duty evaluations. Many other intuitive markers occurred too infrequently to analyze or showed no significant difference between good hires and bad hires in law enforcement settings. Base rates in addition to psychological test data are necessary aspects of the police pre-employment evaluation.     

Crime in the 2016 Presidential Election: a new era?

Issues pertaining to crime and criminal justice have long been part of presidential campaigns. Voters want to know how candidates plan to solve the problem of crime and keep them safe. In turn, candidates respond to voters’ concerns and describe their crime control ideas in hopes of increasing voter support. In doing so, they often rely on symbolic statements that provide little detail but make people “feel good”. This study analyzes the criminal justice rhetoric used by the three major presidential candidates in the 2016 election cycle to determine what issues they discussed and how often. The analysis also examines if candidates relied on symbolic statements, and how the issues were debated between the candidates. The findings show that the issues discussed were somewhat different than in previous years, and that the candidates relied on symbolic statements about crime – a change from the previous election cycle. Additionally, the candidates used crime control as a way to reach out to voters in their own political party, suggesting an interesting shift in how issues of criminal justice are being approached within elections.     

Global international relations and the Arab Spring: the Maghreb’s challenge to the EU

Abstract

This article contributes to the Global International Relations project by critically evaluating the roles ascribed to Europe and the EU by Levitsky and Way in their model for explaining regime transitions. Focusing primarily on their international dimensions of linkage and leverage, it assesses both the normative geopolitical underpinnings and explanatory power of their thesis, drawing on the North African cases of Tunisia and Mauritania at the start of the Arab Spring to illustrate and substantiate its observations and arguments. It concludes that the EU’s failure to discipline either country’s competitive authoritarian regime raises important questions about the validity of the privileged role in which they cast Europe.     

Bound feet: How sexy were they?

In lore and literature, footbinding is thought to have been maintained by its erotic attraction for Chinese men. Interviews with hundreds of living village and small-town women who were footbound in their childhood prove this to be an unsustainable myth. In addition to my extensive fieldwork in many Chinese regions, graphic and portable erotic art, and classical erotic novels all reveal a low level of sexual attentiveness to bound feet and shoes even among the literate. Since most commoner marriages were arranged by parents, and since Chinese mothers-in-law were unlikely to seek sexually distracting brides for their sons, it is clear that while Chinese culture produced some bound foot fetishists, the erotic aspect of the practice was of minimal, if any, importance to the huge population of ordinary couples. This finding clears the way for more effective explanations of its remarkable endurance and spread.     

Myths about tigers: Indonesian development policy debates

This paper assesses some of the major policy debates currently occurring in Indonesia. It is argued that, while Indonesia's economic performance over the past 30 years has been very good, some of these debates are centred on misleading or irrelevant 'myths' which may have adverse policy consequences. There is some evidence that the reform momentum has slowed in the past few years, while other pressing policy challenges have not been addressed with the vigour evident in the 1980s. Debate over these myths may therefore be contributing to a somewhat less coherent policy regime, just as the country is wrestling with post-Soeharto succession scenarios.     

Democratic theory and practice: An evolving discourse

The New Challenge of Direct Democracy by Ian Budge. London: Polity Press, 1996. Pp.viii + 203. £45 (hardback); £12.95 (paperback). ISBN 0 7456 1231 8 and 1765 4

QUANGOs and Local Government: A Changing World edited by Howard Davis. London and Portland, OR: Frank Cass, 1996. Pp.104. £25 (hardback). ISBN 0 7146 4735 7

Extraordinary Politics: How Protest and Dissent are Changing American Democracy by Charles C. Euchner. Boulder, CO: Westview press, 1996. Pp.xiv + 290. £51.50 (hardback); £14.95 (paperback). ISBN 0 8133 2905 1 and 2906 X.

Rethinking Local Democracy edited by Desmond King and Gerry Stoker. Basingstoke: Macmillan, 1996. Pp.x + 254. £40 (hardback); £12.99 (paperback). ISBN 0 333 63852 2 and 63853 0

Local Democracy and Local Government edited by Lawrence Pratchett and David Wilson. Basingstoke: Macmillan, 1996. Pp.xii + 266. £37.50 (hardback); £11.99 (paperback). ISBN 0 333 66432 9 and 66433 7

Social Democracy in a Post‐Communist Europe edited by Michael Waller, Bruno Coppieters and Kris Deschouwer. London: Frank Cass, 1994. Pp.xii + 203. £30 (hardback); £15 (paperback). ISBN 0 7146 4522 2 and 4092 1     

Natural Resource Damages for Climate Change—An Idea Whose Time Is Not Yet Come,Part II: Climate Change NRD Claims—Get Coverage

Climate change litigation is in its infancy. As it matures, one type of suit that may emerge is a climate change-based natural resource damages (NRD) claim under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA). While it is unlikely that climate change-based NRD claims could succeed under current law, a policyholder sued for such claims should be entitled to a defense under its liability insurance policies. Against the backdrop of some recent climate change lawsuits, this article anticipates insurance industry arguments against coverage for climate change NRD claims, and examines counter arguments in favor of coverage for such claims.     

Forensic analysis of explosives using isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) — Preliminary study on TATP and PETN

The application of isotopic techniques to investigations requiring the provision of evidence to a Court is limited. The objective of this research was to investigate the application of light stable isotopes and isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) to solve complex forensic cases by providing a level of discrimination not achievable utilising traditional forensic techniques.Due to the current threat of organic peroxide explosives, such as triacetone triperoxide (TATP), research was undertaken to determine the potential of IRMS to differentiate samples of TATP that had been manufactured utilising different starting materials and/or manufacturing processes. In addition, due to the prevalence of pentaerythritoltetranitrate (PETN) in detonators, detonating cord, and boosters, the potential of the IRMS technique to differentiate PETN samples from different sources was also investigated.Carbon isotope values were measured in fourteen TATP samples, with three definite groups appearing in the initial sample set based on the carbon data alone. Four additional TATP samples (in a second set of samples) were distinguishable utilising the carbon and hydrogen isotopic compositions individually, and also in combination with the oxygen isotope values. The 3D plot of the carbon, oxygen and hydrogen data demonstrated the clear discrimination of the four samples of TATP. The carbon and nitrogen isotope values measured from fifteen PETN samples, allowed samples from different sources to be readily discriminated.This paper demonstrates the successful application of IRMS to the analysis of explosives of forensic interest to assist in discriminating samples from different sources. This research represents a preliminary evaluation of the IRMS technique for the measurement of stable isotope values in TATP and PETN samples, and supports the dedication of resources for a full evaluation of this application in order to achieve Court reportable IRMS results.