Demography and democracy: the impact of youth cohort size on democratic stability in the world

The traditional explanations for the survival of democratic systems mostly include economic and cultural variables. Only rarely has attention been given to the age structure of a society. This article introduces a hypothesis involving the ‘youth bulge’ concept popular in conflict studies. It is hypothesized that democratic countries with proportionally large male youth cohorts are more likely to become dictatorships than societies with a smaller share of young men. A causal link between demography and democracy is assumed to exist because young men are the protagonists of virtually all violent political action as well as political extremism with a potential to threaten democracy. Strong evidence supporting the hypothesis is found using data for 110 countries in the period from 1972–2009.     

Irrtum über die Voraussetzungen eines lebensgefährdenden Waffengebrauchs

Irrt ein Exekutivbeamter bei der Ausübung eines lebengef?hrdenden Waffengebrauchs darüber, dass ein wahrgenommenes Tatgeschehen in rechtlicher Hinsicht das – den Rechtfertigungsgrund des § 7 Z 3 WaffGG konstituierende – Deliktsmerkmal der konkreten Gemeingefahr (§ 176 Abs 1 StGB) verwirklicht, so liegt ein Irrtum über den sozialen Bedeutungsgehalt eines normativen Rechtfertigungsmerkmals vor, der nach § 8 StGB als sogenannter Erlaubnistatbestandsirrtum und nicht als Rechtsirrtum (§ 9 StGB) zu beurteilen ist.     

Vorschläge zur Errichtung einer nationalen Menschenrechtsinstitution in Österreich

Österreich hat im Hinblick auf seinen nationalen Grund- und Menschenrechtsschutz durch die 1920 geschaffene Zentralinstanz des Verfassungsgerichtshofs lange Zeit eine Vorreiterposition in Europa belegt. Inzwischen wird jedoch immer deutlicher, dass zur Erfüllung völkerrechtlicher Menschenrechtsverpflichtungen sowie eines umfassenden Grundrechtsschutzes auf nationaler Ebene – im Sinne der Trias "respect, protect, fulfill" – die nachprüfende gerichtliche Kontrolle allein unzureichend ist. Die Schaffung einer unabhängigen und pluralistischen nationalen Institution würde dem Prozess einer kontinuierlichen Verbesserung der normativen und faktischen Menschenrechtssituation am Besten zum Ziel gereichen. Das umfangreiche Mandat einer solchen Menschenrechtsinstitution soll neben der Beratungs- und Berichtsfunktion gegenüber Regierung, Gesetzgebung und anderen staatlichen Organen insbesondere eine breite Kontrollbefugnis betreffend die Maßnahmen von Sicherheitsexekutive, Justizwache und Militär umfassen. Mediatives Einschreiten sowie die Kooperation mit internationalen und Nichtregierungsorganisationen komplettieren gemeinsam mit menschenrechtlicher Bildungs- und Öffentlichkeitsarbeit, Forschung und Dokumentation die Hauptaufgaben der Institution. Seit der Weltmenschenrechtskonferenz 1993 in Wien besteht an der besonderen Bedeutung derartiger Einrichtungen kein Zweifel mehr; durch stetige Vorstöße internationaler Gremien, wie des Europarates und letztlich der Europäischen Union, erfährt die diesbezügliche Diskussion jetzt zusätzlichen Antrieb. Neben dem generellen, weltweiten Trend zur Errichtung nationaler Menschenrechtsinstitutionen stellen besonders die Entscheidung der EU, die in Wien ansässige Beobachtungsstelle für Rassismus und Fremdenfeindlichkeit (EUMC) ab März 2007 in eine Europäische Grundrechteagentur umzuwandeln, sowie Österreichs kurz bevorstehende Ratifizierung des Fakultativprotokolls zur UNO-Folterkonvention (OPCAT) unser Land vor die bedeutsame Aufgabe, endlich mit den zahlreichen europäischen Staaten gleichzuziehen, deren nicht-gerichtlicher Menschenrechtsschutz schon längst einer an den "Pariser Prinzipien 1993" orientierten, finanziell sowie organisatorisch unabhängigen Institution obliegt.     

Criminal poisoning of commuters in Bangladesh: prospective and retrospective study

Travel-related poisoning is an emerging social and public health emergency in Bangladesh but its cause and significance have not been determined. To investigate this syndrome we performed a prospective clinical study and retrospective analysis of hospital records in a general medicine unit of a public tertiary care teaching hospital in Dhaka, Bangladesh, using toxicological analysis by fluorescence polarization immunoassay (FPIA) and liquid chromatography coupled to time-of-flight mass spectrometry (LC-TOF MS). The participants of the prospective study were 130 consecutive patients aged 16-80 years who were admitted with central nervous system depression (Glasgow Coma Score 3-14) after using public transportation, in the absence of other abnormalities, from January through June 2004, and a convenience sample of 15 such patients admitted during 3 days in May 2006. In 2004-2006, travel-related poisoning increased from 6.1 to 9.5% of all admissions (210-309 of 3266-3843 per year), representing 46.6-55.7% of all admitted poisoning cases. Incidents were associated with bus (76%), taxi, train, and air travel, or local markets; 98% of patients remembered buying or accepting food or drinks before losing consciousness. Direct financial damage (missing property) was diverse and frequently existential. Among 94 urine samples analyzed by FPIA, 74% tested positive for benzodiazepines. Among 15 urine samples analyzed by LC-TOF MS, lorazepam was detected in all; five also contained diazepam or metabolites; nitrazepam was present in three. FPIA results obtained for these 15 samples were below the recommended cut-off in eight (53%; lorazepam only). Our findings show that the massive medicosocial emergency of travel-related poisoning in Bangladesh is the result of drug-facilitated organized crime and that benzodiazepine drugs are used to commit these crimes, suggesting modifications to the local emergency management of the victims of this type of poisoning. They also highlight the need for more research in the neglected field of acute poisoning in Bangladesh, and for criminal investigations of the use of benzodiazepine drugs in this country.     

Shaping the Scope of Conflict in Scotland’s Fracking Debate: Conflict Management and the Narrative Policy Framework

This study applies a narrative lens to policy actors’ discursive strategies in the Scottish debate over fracking. Based on a sample of 226 newspaper articles (2011–2017) and drawing on key elements of the narrative policy framework (NPF), the research examines how policy coalitions have characterized their supporters, their opponents, and the main regulator (Scottish government). It also explores how actors have sought to expand or contain the scope of conflict to favor their policy objectives. Empirically, only the government strives for conflict containment, whereas both pro‐ and anti‐fracking groups prioritize conflict expansion through characterization contests and the diffusion and concentration of the costs/risks and benefits of fracking. In theoretical terms, the study proposes that Sarah Pralle’s conflict management model, which emphasizes symmetrical strategies of conflict expansion by both coalitions, is a potential tool to revise extant NPF expectations about the different narrative strategies of winning and losing coalitions. Moreover, the fact that policy actors mostly employ negatively rather than positively framed characters in their narratives may be a valid expectation for similar policy conflicts, particularly under conditions of regulatory uncertainty.     

Age structure and political violence: a re-assessment of the “youth bulge” hypothesis

A popular hypothesis in international studies states that a “youth bulge”––an age pyramid dominated by large cohorts between 15 and 29 years of age––increases the risk of political violence. However, empirical evidence on this link remains inconclusive to date. In this article, we systematically assess the youth effect using new data from 183 countries between 1996 and 2015. We find that within countries, a decrease in the youth ratio is generally associated with a decrease in the number of violent deaths from terrorism or other internal conflicts, and vice versa. This is also confirmed in out-of-sample predictions. However, the association is not evident in all constellations and sensitive to modeling issues. In particular, large cohorts of young males can become a disruptive power in countries that increase enrollment in post-primary education. Although this is usually followed by fertility decline, youth bulges often remain at record levels for quite some time due to high birth rates in the past. Strong labor markets can in general suppress the detrimental consequences of youth bulges. However, the combination of growing youth cohorts and educational expansion often leads to increased political violence even in the presence of low youth unemployment.     

Mehr Zuwanderer,mehr Fremdenangst? Ein Überblick über den Forschungsstand und ein Erklärungsversuch aktueller Entwicklungen in Deutschland

The share of residents with foreign roots in Germany will rise considerably in the next years. A crucial societal question will certainly be whether natives will get used to the increasing level of ethnic diversity or whether anti-immigrant threat perceptions will rise. There is an obvious empirical paradox in the context of this question: On the one hand, high immigration usually coincides with more skeptical views towards immigration and greater success for right-wing political parties. On the other hand, these reactions are often over-represented in regions where the actual share of migrants is rather low. This paper presents an overview of theories and evidence on this apparent contradiction. A crucial factor which can at least partially reconcile these ambivalent findings is the geographic level of analysis: If the national share of migrants increases, media coverage of the topic is greater and fears among the population accordingly rise in most cases. On the level of regions, however, effects of contact and habituation are strongest, such that people living in high-immigrant regions tend to perceive immigration in a more positive way. On the level of city districts, the relationship seemingly turns negative again. Here, the more tolerant citizens live in residential areas with a low to moderate share of migrants, while natives living in districts with many foreigners tend to move away or vote for far-right parties, as the success of the “Alternative for Germany” (AfD) in the 2016 state elections suggests. A number of conclusions can be drawn with regard to current developments in Germany.     

The European Union in global environmental governance: Leadership in the making?

For well over a decade, the European Union (EU) has proclaimed its leadership role in global environmental governance (GEG). In this article, we examine both the nature of its leadership and the underlying conditions for ‘actorness’ upon which leadership must depend. The EU’s record in the global conferences as well as its influence on the reform of the Commission on Sustainable Development (CSD) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) are also investigated. We argue that the EU has frequently sought to shape international environmental negotiations and promote sustainable development as an organising principle of global governance. Despite its inadequate status at the UN and internal problems, it has had a significant effect on the global agenda. However, due to persistent diplomatic opposition from other coalitions, its real, directly visible influence has been more modest. For genuine directional leadership, which goes beyond the defence of self-interest, the Union will have to make internal policy coherence a greater priority. Moreover, apart from relying solely on its weighty presence in the international system or its potential capabilities, the EU needs to achieve a high level of credibility in order to enhance its powers of persuasion.