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821.
Gabriel Rosser Toby Davies Kate J. Bowers Shane D. Johnson Tao Cheng 《Journal of Quantitative Criminology》2017,33(3):569-594
Objectives
Decades of empirical research demonstrate that crime is concentrated at a range of spatial scales, including street segments. Further, the degree of clustering at particular geographic units remains noticeably stable and consistent; a finding that Weisburd (Criminology 53:133–157, 2015) has recently termed the ‘law of crime concentration at places’. Such findings suggest that the future locations of crime should—to some extent at least—be predictable. To date, methods of forecasting where crime is most likely to next occur have focused either on area-level or grid-based predictions. No studies of which we are aware have developed and tested the accuracy of methods for predicting the future risk of crime at the street segment level. This is surprising given that it is at this level of place that many crimes are committed and policing resources are deployed.Methods
Using data for property crimes for a large UK metropolitan police force area, we introduce and calibrate a network-based version of prospective crime mapping [e.g. Bowers et al. (Br J Criminol 44:641–658, 2004)], and compare its performance against grid-based alternatives. We also examine how measures of predictive accuracy can be translated to the network context, and show how differences in performance between the two cases can be quantified and tested.Results
Findings demonstrate that the calibrated network-based model substantially outperforms a grid-based alternative in terms of predictive accuracy, with, for example, approximately 20 % more crime identified at a coverage level of 5 %. The improvement in accuracy is highly statistically significant at all coverage levels tested (from 1 to 10 %).Conclusions
This study suggests that, for property crime at least, network-based methods of crime forecasting are likely to outperform grid-based alternatives, and hence should be used in operational policing. More sophisticated variations of the model tested are possible and should be developed and tested in future research.822.
Permeability and Burglary Risk: Are Cul-de-Sacs Safer? 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
That crime is concentrated in space is now accepted as commonplace. Explanations for why it clusters at particular locations
are various reflecting the range of factors which are held to influence crime placement. In this article, we focus on the
role of the permeability of the street network on the location of crime. We first review the research conducted hitherto,
summarising the different approaches to analysis and the findings that have so far emerged. Then we present original analyses
conducted at the street segment level to examine the issues at hand. In contrast to much of the prior research, in this study
we examine the patterns for a large study area in which there is considerable variation in street network configuration. Moreover,
and in contrast to all of the previous research, the approach to analysis takes into account the multi-level structure of
the data analysed. The findings demonstrate that increased permeability is associated with elevated burglary risk, that burglary
risk is lower on cul-de-sacs (particularly those that are sinuous in nature), and that the risk of burglary is higher on more
major roads and those street segments that are connected to them. In the conclusion of the paper we outline an agenda for
future research. 相似文献
823.
This article provides a commentary on the proposed Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM)-5 changes with respect to diagnosing posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in diverse cultural groups in clinical and forensic settings. PTSD is the most common diagnosis in personal injury litigants (Koch et al. 2006). By reviewing the symptoms that have been changed in the DSM-5 draft for PTSD in terms of ethnoracial and minority–cultural factors, this article highlights the lack of data needed in the area and that the DSM project should pay more attention to such factors. 相似文献
824.
F. Andrew Kozel M.D. M.S.C.R. Kevin A. Johnson Ph.D. Emily L. Grenesko B.A. Steven J. Laken Ph.D. Samet Kose M.D. Xinghua Lu M.D. Ph.D. Dean Pollina Ph.D. Andrew Ryan Ph.D. Mark S. George M.D. 《Journal of forensic sciences》2009,54(1):220-231
Abstract: Using Blood Oxygen Level Dependent (BOLD) functional MRI (fMRI) to detect deception is feasible in simple laboratory paradigms. A mock sabotage scenario was used to test whether this technology would also be effective in a scenario closer to a real‐world situation. Healthy, nonmedicated adults were recruited from the community, screened, and randomized to either a Mock‐crime group or a No‐crime group. The Mock‐crime group damaged and stole compact discs (CDs), which contained incriminating video footage, while the No‐crime group did not perform a task. The Mock‐crime group also picked up an envelope from a researcher, while the No‐crime group did not perform this task. Both groups were instructed to report that they picked up an envelope, but did not sabotage any video evidence. Participants later went to the imaging center and were scanned while being asked questions regarding the mock crime. Participants also performed a simple laboratory based fMRI deception testing (Ring‐Watch testing). The Ring‐Watch testing consisted of “stealing” either a watch or a ring. The participants were instructed to report that they stole neither object. We correctly identified deception during the Ring‐Watch testing in 25 of 36 participants (Validated Group). In this Validated Group for whom a determination was made, computer‐based scoring correctly identified nine of nine Mock‐crime participants (100% sensitivity) and five of 15 No‐crime participants (33% specificity). BOLD fMRI presently can be used to detect deception concerning past events with high sensitivity, but low specificity. 相似文献
825.
Victims of stalking often experience a number of negative psychological problems including such things as fear, symptoms of depression, and anger. However, research on factors that lead to these outcomes is limited. The goal of this study was to first identify distinct subgroups of stalking victims based on measures of psychological problems resulting from being stalked. Once identified, the next step was to examine the influence of demographic and stalking-related variables on the probability of subgroup membership. The results revealed that respondents who were female, had a prior relationship with the stalker, experienced a greater variety of stalking behaviors, were divorced/separated, and reported receiving government assistance were more likely to be classified into subgroups characterized by a high probability of experiencing multiple negative outcomes. 相似文献
826.
Harriet Thew 《International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics》2018,18(3):369-389
This article examines the participation and agency of young non-state actors (NSAs) in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). It utilizes the constituency of Youth NGOs: YOUNGO, as a case study to examine the relationship between selection of participatory strategies, power sources (following Nasiritousi et al. in Int Environ Agreem Politics Law Econ 16(1):109–126, 2016), recognition and agency using ego and alter perceptions. It finds that young people’s selection of participatory strategies and power sources is shaped by the level of agency which they perceive to be available to them. When self-perception of agency is high, young participants offer constructive policy amendments which can lead to recognition and agency, though only within certain policy areas and the silos in which they are negotiated. When self-perception of agency is low, youth interpret this as lack of recognition, leading to efforts to assert their relevance and/or to challenge procedural legitimacy: neither of which are well received by decision-makers. In reality, several of the challenges faced by young participants are not structurally unique to their constituency; however, their lack of financial resources does hinder their ability to fully utilize modes of participation which previous studies have found to be beneficial to other NSAs, such as side-events. Financial constraints also restrict the ability of youth participants, many of whom are volunteers, to develop professional relationships with key actors over time, meaning that the level of agency developed by more established, better-resourced NSAs remains largely out of reach. These findings have implications for the understanding of NSA agency, which has previously been treated as homogeneous and raises further questions regarding procedural legitimacy of the UNFCCC and its role in mobilizing and empowering the next generation. 相似文献
827.
Many studies reveal strong interrater agreement for Hare's Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R) when used by trained raters in research contexts. However, no systematic research has examined agreement between PCL-R scores from independent clinicians who are retained by opposing sides in adversarial legal proceedings. We reviewed all 43 sexual-offender civil-commitment trials in one state and identified 23 cases in which opposing evaluators reported PCL-R total scores for the same individual. Differences between scores from opposing evaluators were usually in a direction that supported the party who retained their services. These score differences were greater in size than would be expected based on the instrument's standard error of measurement or the rater agreement values reported in previous PCL-R research. The intraclass correlation for absolute agreement for the PCL-R Total score from a single rater (ICC 1,A = .39) was well below levels of agreement observed for the PCL-R in research contexts, and below published test-retest values for the PCL-R. Results raise concerns about the potential for a forensic evaluator's "partisan allegiance" to influence PCL-R scores in adversarial proceedings. 相似文献
828.
Kate?J.?BowersEmail author Shane?D.?Johnson Alex?F.?G.?Hirschfield 《European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research》2004,10(4):285-308
A new situational crime prevention measure recently introduced into Great Britain involves the fitting of gates to alleyways running along the back of terraced properties to restrict access to local residents and reduce opportunities for offenders. A number of quantitative techniques were used to assess the success of the intervention in reducing burglary in the City of Liverpool. The results demonstrate that, relative to a suitable comparison area, burglary was reduced by approximately 37%, there was a diffusion of benefit to properties in the surrounding areas, and the scheme was cost beneficial with a saving of £1.86 for every pound spent. The analyses provide persuasive evidence that these reductions were attributable to the intervention. We argue that the methodological techniques demonstrated here can be applied more widely to crime prevention evaluations. 相似文献
829.
Queensland's post-First World War Soldier Settlement Scheme, begun with noble and optimistic intentions in 1916, officially terminated in 1929 after ignominious failure. There were a number of factors which contributed to the erosion and ultimate destruction of this phase of land settlement, but Commonwealth-State antagonism and the incompetence of many State agricultural advisers were certainly significant elements. Beerburrum, just north of Brisbane, was one of the largest groups of settlements which characterised Queensland's attempts to turn swords into ploughshares. Beerburrum soldier settlers and their families strove valiantly to extract a basic living in the face of overwhelming adversity, and an examination of their circumstances offers a valuable window into the trials and tribulations of the entire scheme. 相似文献
830.
G C Johnson 《The American journal of forensic medicine and pathology》1985,6(3):244-247
During a 6-month period, we encountered two examples of tight contact wounds of the temple region which were associated with ovoid, fairly regular, perforating wounds of the skull and overlying skin. These wounds were located between the eyes with the upper border near the glabella and the lower border near the level of the lower eyelids. There was no evidence that these wounds were entry wounds and in both cases the projectiles were still within the cranial cavity. Therefore, they were interpreted as gas blowout wounds. No similar cases have been found in the literature. Law enforcement personnel and pathologists should be aware of this rather rare blowout type of shotgun injury since it may be subject to various misinterpretations, including that of an entry wound. 相似文献