Jurors' use of probabilistic evidence

Mock jurors' use of probabilistic evidence was examined in a fractional factorial design manipulating 7 variables: strength of nonstatistical evidence; quantification of nonstatistical evidence; strength of statistical evidence; combination of 2 pieces of statistical evidence; instruction in use of Bayes' theorem; and presentation of fallacies (both prosecutor's and defense attorney's) concerning use of statistical evidence. One hundred eighty-nine subjects viewed 1 of 16 videotapes presenting a condensed mock trial. Subjects completed dependent measures after each of 4 witnesses and at the end of trial. The strength of both nonstatistical and probabilistic evidence affected verdicts; the other manipulations did not. Overall, subjects slightly underused the probabilistic evidence, as compared to their individualized Bayesian norms, and subjects did not succumb to fallacies. However, subjects greatly varied in over-or underutilization, even after Bayesian instruction. Future research should examine use of weak nonstatistical evidence, and should test different probabilistic instructions.     

Standoff and progress in North Korean nuclear dilemma after the joint statement

This article attempts to analyze the standoff and progress in the nuclear dilemma with North Korea, not only following the September 2005 Joint Statement but also the February and October 2007 agreements. Ever since the Joint Statement, the USA and the DPRK have confronted each other on and off again in process of trying to implement an accord that set up an action-for-action plan designed ultimately to eliminate nuclear weapons program from the North. More seriously, Pyongyang rejected nuclear sampling in spite of agreeing to verification and other measures unanimously agreed among the six parties. It is, thus, expected there is a long road ahead toward a resolution of North Korea’s nuclear dilemma.     

The Effects of Fiscal Decentralization on Public Spending: The Korean Case

The local government reforms of the 1980s and 1990s in Korea involved devolution of substantial resources from the central to local governments. Fiscal realignment between the levels of government occurred during the same period of time. This article places these changes within the context of fiscal decentralization, using a variety of time-series regression techniques, in an effort to assess its impact. Findings suggest that fiscal decentralization serves as a constraint on the behavior of central government, while it serves as a booster on behalf of underdeveloped local governments. Fiscal decentralization may be a very effective means of self-government, and plays a key role in improving the fit between the provision of public goods and citizens' demand in Korea.     

Reviews

Andrei Kuznetsov, Foreign Investment in Contemporary Russia: Managing Capital Entry. New York: St Martin's Press Inc, 1994. xiv + 188 pp., £45.00

Leslie Dienes, Istvan Dobozi & Marian Radetzki, Energy and Economic Reform in the Former Soviet Union: Implications for Production, Consumption and Exports. London: Macmillan, 1994, xiv + 246 pp., £45.00

Hilary Pilkington, Russia's Youth and its Culture. A Nation's Constructors and Constructed. London: Routledge, 1994, xiv + 358 pp., £40.00 h/b., £12.99 p/b.

Peter Gatrell, Government, Industry and Rearmament in Russia, 1900–1914: the Last Argument of Tsarism. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994, xx + 399 pp., £55.00 h/b., £19.95 p/b.

Margot Light (ed.), Troubled Friendships: Moscow's Third World Ventures. London: British Academic Press, 1993, vii + 225 pp., £39.50.

Dale F. Eickelman (ed.), Russia's Muslim Frontiers: New Directions in Cross‐cultural Analysis. Bloomington and Indianapolis, IN: Indiana University Press, 1993, ix + 225 pp.

Ljubo Sirc, Criticism of Self‐Management Still Relevant? London: Centre for Research into Communist Economies, 1994, 134 pp., £7.50.

Du?an Pokorný, Efficiency and Justice in the Industrial World: Volume 1. The Failure of the Soviet Experiment. New York, London: M. E. Sharpe, 1993, 297 pp., £53.00.

Linda J. Cook, The Soviet Social Contract and Why it Failed. Welfare Policy and Workers’ Politics from Brezhnev to Yeltsin. Cambridge, MA and London: Harvard University Press, 1994, xiii + 272 pp., £35.95/$53.95.

Henryk Kierzkowski, Marek Okolski & Stanislaw Wellisz (eds), Stabilization and Structural Adjustment in Poland. London: Routledge, 1993, xi + 314 pp., £45.00.

Stephen Whitefield (ed.) The New Institutional Architecture of Eastern Europe. Basingstoke: Macmillan, 1993, ix + 204 pp., £40.00     

Reviews

Holland Hunter & Janusz M. Szyrmer, Faulty Foundations: Soviet Economic Policies, 1928–1940. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1992, xvi + 339 pp., $49.50, £33.00

Peter Rutland, The politics of economic stagnation in the Soviet Union. The role of local party organs in economic management. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1993, xv + 297 pp., £40.00.

Saul Estrin & Martin Cave, eds, Competition and Competition Policy. London: Pinter Publishers, 1993, xi + 143 pp., £35.00.

Pekka Sutela, ed., The Russian Economy in Crisis and Transition. Helsinki: Bank of Finland, 1993, 192 pp., no price.

Sheila M. Puffer, ed., The Russian Management Revolution: Preparing Managers for the Market Economy. Armonk, NY, M. E. Sharpe, 1992, xxi + 290 pages, $59.95 h/b, $19.95 p/b.

Alan Smith, Russia and the World Economy: Problems of Integration. London: Routledge, 1993, 253 pp., £37.50 h/b, £12.99 p/b.

Walter C. Clemens, Jr., Baltic Independence and Russian Empire. London: Macmillan, 1991, xxii + 346 pp., £45.00.

John Fitzmaurice, The Baltic—A Regional Future? New York, St Martin's Press Inc., 1992, xi + 171 pp., £35.00.

Jan Arveds Trapans, ed., Toward Independence. The Baltic Popular Movements, Boulder, CO, San Francisco, CA, Oxford, Westview Press/Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1991, 166 pp., £18.95.

Henryk J. Flakierski, Income Inequalities in the Former Soviet Union and its Republics. Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe, 1993, vii + 87 pp., $24.95 p/b.

Jan Winiecki, Post‐Soviet‐Type Economies in Transition. Aldershot: Avebury, 1993, v + pp. £35.00.

Roger Clarke, Ed., Privatisation: An International Symposium. Papers and Discussion from a Conference in Bled, Slovenia, 6–9 February 1992. London: The Centre for Research into Communist Economies, 1992, 133 pp., £6.50.

Sheila Fitzpatrick, The Cultural Front: Power and Culture in Revolutionary Russia. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1992, xx + 264 pp., $13.95 p/b.

Sharin Rai, Hilary Pilkington & Annie Phizacklea, eds, Women in the Face of Change: The Soviet Union, Eastern Europe and China. London: Routledge, 1992, x + 227 pp., £10.99 p/b.

Bertram Silverman, Robert Vogt & Murray Yanowitch, eds, Labor and Democracy in the Transition to a Market System: A US‐Post‐Soviet Dialogue. Armonk, NY and London: M. E. Sharpe, 1992, xxii + 228 pp., $59.95 h/b, $19.95 p/b.

David Shepherd, Beyond Metafiction. Self‐Consciousness in Soviet Literature. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1992, xii + 260 pp., £30.00.

Donald D. Barry, ed., with the assistance of Louis Rodriguez, Toward the ‘Rule of Law’ in Russia? Political and Legal Reform in the Transition Period. Armonk, NY and London: M. E. Sharpe, 1992, xxv + 402 pp., $90.00.

Hugh D. Phillips, Between the Revolution and the West: A Political Biography of Maxim M. Litvinov. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1992, xii + 244 pp., £19.95.

Kitty Weaver, Bushels of Rubles. Soviet Youth in Transition, Westport, & London CT: Praeger, 1993, vii + 216 pp., £40.50.