Electoral balancing,divided government and ‘midterm’ loss in German elections

This paper takes a fresh look at the midterm loss in German elections and argues that government type is a crucial determinant of midterm loss. Using panel regressions on a newly compiled data set covering all state elections during the period 1949–2004, we find that systematic midterm losses occur only when both chambers of the federal legislature (Bundestag and Bundesrat) are controlled by one party or a party coalition. Prior research has failed to discover this important regularity. These findings lend strong support to electoral balancing models while calling into doubt more traditional explanations of midterm loss.     

The effect of being conflict non-avoidant: linking conflict framing and political participation

Abstract

The news media’s ability to mobilise citizens to participate politically by emphasising elite conflict in politics is not well understood. This article argues that citizens may gain knowledge when exposed to conflict news framing. It further theorises that whether they translate their knowledge into political participation is conditioned by their orientation towards conflict. Individuals who avoid conflict participate less frequently than individuals who do not. The proposed moderated mediation process was tested using a content analysis of news media coverage and a three-wave panel survey (n?=?2,061). Results show that the effect of exposure to conflict news framing on (changes in) political participation is positively mediated by knowledge. This mediation effect is moderated by conflict avoidance, where the effect is more positive among conflict non-avoiders than conflict avoiders. This study shows that understanding the news media’s mobilising effect on political participation requires attention to both news content and individual motivational factors.     

More than Just a Footnote: Constructing a Theoretical Framework for Teaching about Gender in Negotiation

The dominant paradigm in teaching about gender issues in negotiation over the past 25 years has been to treat the subject as one of difference — men negotiate one way, and women negotiate another way. While this can provoke interesting discussions, there are pitfalls in treating gender in this way. The author suggests two other ways to approach the subject matter: viewing gender as emergent in the negotiation process or taking a gender relations perspective that highlights some of the invisible aspects of negotiation. The author suggests ways to teach about gender in negotiation courses from each of these perspectives; these newer ways of teaching about gender in negotiation help make it a more integral part of the curriculum.     

The Myth of 'Rebalancing' Retaliation in WTO Dispute Settlement Practice

It is generally assumed that trade retaliation under the WTOperforms some kind of ‘rebalancing’ by allowingthe injured Member to suspend ‘concessions and obligations’vis-à-vis the violating Member of a level equivalentto the level of ‘nullification and impairment’ sufferedby the injured Member. This article argues that this perceptionis misguided. The article first questions if a sensible comparatorexists with which equivalence for purposes of ‘rebalancing’could be evaluated. It then argues that WTO arbitration decisionsdo not even succeed in their limited goal of providing for retaliationthat will affect trade in the same amount as the WTO-inconsistentmeasure at issue. One reason is the use of an asymmetric andunderspecified trade effects comparator. The other reason isvery significant miscalculation of the trade effects of theviolation, as shown by detailed legal-economic analysis of allrelevant arbitration decisions. The decisions concerning countermeasuresagainst prohibited export subsidies do not make any attemptat ‘rebalancing’ in the first place. The articleconsiders political explanations of arbitration decisions. Itconcludes with some suggestions for improvement.     

The distal humerus--a blind test of Rogers' sexing technique using a documented skeletal collection

Continuous monitoring of existing methods of skeletal diagnosis allows improving the reliability of personal identification in forensic and archaeological contexts. This study reports on a blind test re-evaluating the sexing technique proposed by Rogers (8) involving the distal humerus. A total of 351 humeri (184 male, 167 female specimens) from the documented skeletal assemblage of St. Bride's, London, was analyzed for the following traits: trochlear constriction, trochlear symmetry, olecranon fossa shape, and angle of the medial epicondyle. Individual traits showed substantial sex-discriminatory capacity, with "olecranon fossa shape" being most consistently accurate (84.6%) in predicting sex. The combination of all four traits provided an overall accuracy of 79.1%, including those individuals assessed as "probable" male and female. This renders the technique useful for forensic applications. The distal humerus can be recommended for sex assessment in addition to more established markers, especially since this part of the skeleton is frequently well preserved.     

Fall from a Balcony—Accidental or Homicidal? Reconstruction by Numerical Simulation

In the case presented, conflicting witness accounts and the subject's injuries were highly suspicious of an assault that might have caused the balcony fall. For the reconstruction, a simulation software, originally designed for motor vehicle accident reconstruction, was used. Three scenarios were simulated using the PC‐Crash multibody pedestrian model: (S1) Subject was pushed against and fell over balcony rail, (S2) subject fell off from a seated position, (S3) subject fell off from a prone position on the rail. (S1) could be ruled out due to inconsistent results in terms of landing area and minimum velocity. Realistic results were obtained for (S3) with a fall off from a prone position on the rail. After a few months, the comatose subject awoke and gave an account of what had happened being consistent with the simulation results. This case demonstrates the feasibility of multibody simulations also in cases of nontraffic incidents.     

The Incidence of Visible Underemployment: Evidence for Trinidad and Tobago

This article presents an empirical analysis of the incidence of visible underemployment in Trinidad and Tobago. Visible underemployment consists of workers who work less than the normal duration of working hours but are willing and available to work more. We find that compared to other groups of the labour force the visibly underemployed tend to be less educated and are more likely to work in the private sector. We also find that their revealed behaviour is consistent with their desire for more hours. Only about 50 per cent of the visibly underemployed are able to find full-time employment within three months and little except firm size helps predict who will.     

The political consequences of transitions out of marriage in Great Britain

This article uses British Household Panel Survey data to estimate the effects of divorce and widowhood on political attitudes and political behavior. In contrast to previous research, which mostly relied on cross-sectional data, a matched propensity score analysis does not find any effects of transitions out of marriage on policy preferences, party identification, or vote choice. The results also show that divorce (but not widowhood) substantially reduces electoral participation. Some preliminary evidence suggests that this effect of divorce on turnout is partially attributable to the increased residential mobility that accompanies divorce.