ERIC NEWBY,THE HINDU KUSH AND THE GANGES

Hugh Carless was Oriental Secretary in the British Embassy in Kabul and then in the Embassy in Tehran in the 1950s. In 1956 he accompanied Eric Newby on their journey to the Hindu Kush. Later he was British Ambassador to Venezuela and a member of the Council of this Society.

This is the edited text of the lecture which he gave to the Society on 21 March 2007.     

Marching at the Pace of the Slowest: a Model of International Climate-Change Negotiations

We model international negotiations on climate change. Leaders such as the European Union and the US can make proposals and influence veto players, including other countries and domestic lobbies, who must choose whether to accept or reject proposals. We explain why policy change has been minimal in this issue area, which veto-players receive the greatest and least attention and why leader actors wishing to see less progress are in such a strong bargaining position     

Political manipulation in a majoritarian democracy: central government targeting of public funds to English subnational government, in space and across time

This article argues that it is rational for the executive to target resources in space and through time if it seeks to maximise its chances of electoral success. In majoritarian democracies such as the United Kingdom, there are particularly strong incentives to target resources to marginal legislative constituencies, although similar opportunies exist in other political systems. The benefits of such a practice could be growing, because the costs of forms of temporal targeting predicted by theories of the political business cycle have increased, owing to the effect of the global economy. In the United Kingdom one channel through which resources can be targeted is central grants to local authorities. This model is tested with pooled cross-section data on the central finance of English local government between 1981/1982–1995/1996. The article confirms that central government spatially targeted marginals after 1988/1989 while it continued to allocate greater funds near national elections, conditional on its opinion-poll ratings. Hypotheses from the literature on distributional politics are also tested, finding evidence for the temporal allocation of resources to win local elections.     

CIA plot,socialist conspiracy,or new world order? the origins of the Bilderberg group, 1952–55

Ever since its first meeting in 1954, the Bilderberg Group, a secretive annual conclave of Atlantic elites, has attracted conspiracy theories. Some observers have perceived it as a CIA plot to take the teeth out of the European left, others as a socialist conspiracy to undermine American capitalism. Recently it has been accused of being the seat of a hidden global government, the ‘New World Order’. The article draws on newly available archival sources to reconstruct the early history of the Group and test these conspiracy theories, concluding that Bilderberg was neither an entirely American nor European invention, but rather the product of a complex process of Atlanticist interaction.