Predicting future smoking of adolescent experimental smokers

This prospective study examined the usefulness of seven selected variables from Jessor and Jessor's problem behavior theory in predicting the future smoking levels of adolescent experimental smokers. Experimental smokers were identified through a survey of 2,550 seventh- and eighth-grade students assessing subjects' current smoking levels as well as subjects' responses to the selected variables. Twelve months later the entire sample was resurveyed to assess subsequent smoking levels of subjects initially reporting experimental smoking. Experimental smokers who responded to both surveys (n=225) were subjects of the present study. The full model discriminant function was significant in discriminating between the two groups; 68% of the subjects were correctly classified. This moderately successful hit rate was 24% better than what could be expected by chance. Increased smokers had lower expectations for academic achievement, had stronger beliefs about the positive functions of smoking, and perceived more smoking among their classmates and close friends. Educational interventions are suggested.Received Ph.D. from the University of Nebraska in 1987. Research interests include human behavior change strategies.Received Ph.D. from University of Illinois in 1968. Research interests include behavior and health.     

B. Reviews: general

i. SHADOWS ON THE SAND: THE MEMOIRS OP SIR GAWAIN BELL. By (SIR) GAWAIN BELL. London, C.Hurst/New York, St Martins, 1983. pp.xiv, 258, 2 maps and index. El3.50.

ii. THE SUDAN MEMOIRS OF CARL CHRISTIAN GIEGLER PASHA. Edited by RICHARD HILL. Translated from the German by THIRZA KÜPPER. With a foreword by the Pasha's great‐granddaughter, HEIDI GROHA. Oxford, Oxford University Press (for the British Academy), pp. xxxii, 231, 3 maps, 12 plates. £18.00.

iii. EGYPT IN THE REIGN OF MUHAMMAD ALI. By AFAF LUTFI AL‐SAYYID MARSOT. (Cambridge Middle East Library) Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1984. pp.x, 300. £25.00.

iv. URBAN NOTABLES AND ARAB NATIONALISM: THE POLITICS OF DAMASCUS. By PHILIP S. KHOURY. (Cambridge Middle East Library) Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1983. pp.153, 2 maps.

v. VICTIMS OF A MAP. Translated by ABDULLAH AL‐UDHARI. London, Al‐Saqi Books, 1984. pp.165. £4.95.

vi. PALESTINE AND MODERN ARAB POETRY. By KHALID A. SULAIMAN. London, Zed Books Ltd., 1984. pp.240. £6.95.

vii. L'ARABIE DU SUD: HISTOIRE ET CIVILISATION. By JOSEPH CHELHOD and others. Paris, Maisonneuve & Larose, 1984. pp.264. 21 illustrations, maps, tables. FF 94.

viii. THE TWO YEMENS. By ROBIN BIDWELL. Harlow (UK), Longman/Boulder (USA), Westview. 1983. pp.350.

ix. BAHRAIN AND THE GULF: PAST PERSPECTIVES AND ALTERNATIVE FUTURES. Edited by JEFFREY B. NUGENT and THEODORE H. THOMAS. London, Croom Helm, 1985. pp.221, 26 tables, 4 figs., bibliography. £16.95.

x. THE ARABS. New Edition. By PETER MANSFIELD. Harmondsworth, Penguin, 1985. pp.510, map, index. £4.95/$6.95.

xi. THE EVOLUTION OF MIDDLE EASTERN LANDSCAPES: AN OUTLINE TO AD 1840. By J.M. WAGSTAFF. London, Croom Helm, 1983. pp.304, 459 maps and figs., 5 tables.

xii. THE GREEK MINORITY OF ISTANBUL AND GREEK‐TURKISH RELATIONS 1918–1974. By ALEXIS ALEXANDRIS. Athens, Centre for Asia Minor Studies, 1983.

xiii. SEX AND SOCIETY IN ISLAM: BIRTH CONTROL BEFORE THE NINETEENTH CENTURY. By B.F.MUSALLAM. (Cambridge Studies in Islamic Civilizations). Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1983. pp.ix, 176. £17.50.

xiv. TOWARDS A JUST MONETARY SYSTEM. By MUHAMMAD U. CHAPRA. Leicester (UK), The Islamic Foundation, 1985. pp.292. £10.00 (hardback); £4.75 (paperback).

xv. INSURANCE IN AN ISLAMIC ECONOMY. By MUHAMMAD NEJATULLAH SIDDIQUI. Leicester (UK), The Islamic Foundation, 1985. £5.50 (hardback); £2.00 (paperback).

xvi. PARTNERSHIP AND PROFIT SHARING IN ISLAMIC LAW. By MUHAMMAD NEJATULLAH SIDDIQUI. Leicester (UK), The Islamic Foundation, 1985. pp.111. £6.50 (hardback); £2.25 (paperback).

xvii. THE IMMORTAL ATATURK: A PSYCHOBIOGRAPHY. By VAMIK D. VOLKAN and NORMAN ITZKOWITZ. Chicago‐London, Chicago University Press, 1984. pp.xxv, 374. £34.50.

xviii. TURKEY. MERI REPORT. Compiled by MIDDLE EAST RESEARCH INSTITUTE. London, Croom Helm, 198 3. pp.181. £35.00

xix. BORDER AND TERRITORIAL DISPUTES. Edited by ALAN J.DAY. (A Keesing's Reference Publication). Harlow, Longman, 1982. pp.406, 44 maps. £45.00

xx. ‘IF ONLY MY PEOPLE...’ By IMMANUEL JAKOBOVITS. London, Weidenfeld & Nicolson, 1984. pp.288.

xxi. L'IMPRIMERIE ARABE EN OCCIDENT (XVIe, XVIIe XVIIIe SIÈCLES). By JOSÉE BALAGNA. (Islam & Occident, 2.) Paris, Maisonneuve & Larose, 1984. pp.153. 68F.     

The nuclear weapons issue in the 1983 British general election

Abstract. In common with many other Western European countries, the issue of nuclear weapons rose to political prominence in Britain in the course of the 1980s. However, whereas the issue was often taken up by newly formed environmentalist parties elsewhere, it differentiated the traditional parties one from the other in Britain. This was made possible by the Labour party's manifesto commitment to unilateral nuclear disarmament. This article details the views of the British electorate on the nuclear issue and assesses its importance for individual voting patterns in the 1983 general election. The electorate shows itself able to distinguish between, and hold opposing views on, nuclear weapons in principle and control over them in practice. Its general support for them, however, means that Labour's perceived hostility to them cost it a considerable number of votes in net terms. These losses could have been mitigated, perhaps even turned into gains, had the party emphasised the security problems stemming from Britain's lack of control over American nuclear weapons on its soil.     

A. Reviews: general

THE HISTORY OF AL‐TABARI (TA'RIKH AL‐RUSUL WA ‘L‐MULÜK). [An annotated translation] (Bibliotheca Persica) (SUNY Series in Near Eastern Studies):

VOLUME XXVII: THE ‘ABBASID REVOLUTION [A.D. 743–750/A.H. 126–132]. Translated and annotated by JOHN ALDEN WILLIAMS. Albany, State University of New York Press, 1985. xiv, 233pp.

VOLUME XXXV: THE CRISIS OF THE ‘ABBASID CALIPHATE: [THE CALIPHATES OF AL‐MUSTA'IN AND AL‐MUTAZZ A.D. 862–869/A.H. 248–255]. Translated and annotated by GEORGE SALIBA. Albany, State University of New York Press, 1985. xii, 187pp.

VOLUME XXXVIII: THE RETURN OF THE CALIPHATE TO BAGHDAD: [THE CALIPHATES OF AL‐MUTADID, AL‐MUKTAFI AND AL‐MUQTADIR A.D. 892–915/A.H. 279–302]. Translated and annotated by FRANZ ROSENTHAL. Albany, State University of New York Press, 1985. xxii, [2], 239pp.

VOLUME XVIII: BETWEEN CIVIL WARS: THE CALIPHATE OF MU'AWIYAH [A.D. 661–680/A.H. 40–60]. Translated and annotated by MICHAEL G. MORONY. Albany, State University of New York Press, 1987. xi, 261pp.

AN INTRODUCTION TO SHI'I ISLAM: THE HISTORY AND DOCTRINES OF TWELVER SHI'ISM. By MOOJAN MOMEN. New Haven & London, Yale University Press, xxii, 397pp.

JEWISH LIFE UNDER ISLAM: JERUSALEM IN THE SIXTEENTH CENTURY. By AMNON COHEN. London, Harvard University Press, 1984.

ISLAMIC ART AND ARCHAEOLOGY: Collected Papers. By RICHARD ETTINGHAUSEN. Prepared and edited by MIRIAM ROSEN AYALON. Berlin, Gebr. Mann Verlag, 1984. 1318pp.

THEMES FROM NORTHERN SUDAN. By AHMED AL‐SHAHI. (Brismes Series No 1.) London, Ithaca Press, 1986 152pp. £15.00.

SYRIA UNDER ASSAD: DOMESTIC CONSTRAINTS AND REGIONAL RISKS. Edited by MOSHE MAOZ and AVNER YASIV. London, Croom Helm, 1986. 273pp., maps, notes. £25.00

THE STRUGGLE FOR THE ARAB WORLD: EGYPT'S NASSER AND THE ARAB LEAGUE. By TAWFIG Y. HASOU. London, Kegan Paul International, 1985. 228pp., appendices, notes, bibliography. £25.00

DESPATCHES FROM DAMASCUS: GILBERT MACKERETH AND BRITISH POLICY IN THE LEVANT, 1933–1939. By MICHAEL G. FRY and ITAMAR RABINOVICH. Jerusalem, University of Southern California and Tel Aviv University, 1985. 225pp.

THE MAKING OF MODERN LEBANON. By HELENA COBBAN. London, Hutchinson, 1985, 248pp., illus., maps, bibliography. £6.95.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERN EDUCATION IN THE GULF. By SHEIKHA AL‐MISNAD. London, Ithaca Press, 1986. 386pp., tables, appendices, bibliography. £24.95.

SAUDI ARABIA: THE CEASELESS QUEST FOR SECURITY. By NADAV SAFRAN. London, Harvard University Press, 1985. 542pp., map, tables, notes, appendices, bibliography. £21.25.

THE MANPOWER IN KUWAIT. By SHAMLAN Y. ALESSA. London, Kegan Paul International, 1981. 140pp., tables, notes, bibliography. £30.00.

OMAN AND MUSCAT: AN EARLY MODERN HISTORY. By PATRICIA RISSO. London, Croom Helm, 1986. 258pp., glossary, maps, notes, bibliography. £19.95.

TUYUR ‘UMAN (Birds of Oman). By MICHAEL GALLAGHER and MARTIN W. WOODCOCK. London, Quartet, 1985. 308pp., coloured illustrations, maps, bibliography. £35.00.     

Social science research and experimentation in Australian criminal proceedings: prejudicial pre-trial publicity and psychological research

Using the decision of Barr J in Attorney-General (NSW) v John Fairfax Publications [1999] NSWSC 318, the authors analyse the need for external validity and relevance in social science evidence adduced in the courts. They argue in favour of the rigour employed within Barr J's judgment and contend that a constructive legacy of the decision should be a greater sensitisation on the part of researchers to the kinds of factors that can distance experimental scenarios from curial contexts to a point where generalisations from the former become strained and even spurious. A number of these considerations have the potential to be addressed to a significant extent by improved methodologies. However, the authors warn against an excess of purist fervour in demanding complete comparability of scenarios, lest the fruits of social science be denied to the courts and decision-making be adversely affected by the absence of expert insights falling short of complete replication of conditions between experiments and forensic reality.     

Validation of chest X-ray comparisons for unknown decedent identification

Comparing skeletal structures between antemortem and postmortem chest radiographs is widely used by forensic specialists from many disciplines to positively identify unknown decedents. However, validity assessments of this method have been fairly limited. This study had three objectives: 1) to quantify the reliability of ante- and postmortem chest radiograph comparison for decedent identification; 2) to identify useful radiologic features supporting decedent identification; and 3) to recognize sources of error in decedent identification related to use of comparative radiographs. A forensic pathologist, a forensic anthropologist, and two radiologists participated in the study. Our results showed that chest radiograph comparisons proved reliable, if basic decedent information was provided, and antemortem and postmortem radiographs were adequately positioned and exposed. A "morphological approach" using normal anatomical structures for comparison may provide the most efficient method for accurate identification.     

Reconfiguring Chinese Propaganda and Control Modalities: A case study of Shanghai's television system

China's television industry has experienced a number of internal changes that have shaped this system's structure into the new millennium. The Chinese Government has reconfigured the propaganda and control modalities of this industry to allow television to become the prime mover for economic reform. A case study of Shanghai's dynamic television system from 1995 to 1999 is used to understand the changes that have taken place. This analysis provides an understanding of how the Chinese Government policy changes impact on the interrelatedness of the system's components. The consequences of these changes have had dramatic and lasting effects on the way the television industry operates in China. These effects have serious implications for foreign organisations, that are attempting to find a foothold in this booming industry, and for the Chinese television viewer.