Predictive Efficacy and the Preventive Detention of Dangerous Sexual Offenders: Contributions from Nonlinear Dynamical Systems Theory

Behavioral scientists are regularly summoned by the legal system to make predictions about the likelihood of future dangerous behavior (i.e., violence prediction/risk assessment). In recent years, such efforts have been subjected to considerable scrutiny as, despite the evolution of risk assessment instruments, social scientists have yet to demonstrate the ability to predict violence with a reasonable degree of accuracy. Yet concerns with predictive efficacy may be rooted in the limitations of prediction itself. Nonlinear dynamical systems theory (i.e., chaos theory) and quantum physics jointly paint a picture of human behavior as fundamentally unpredictable; in their light, we are asked to question whether future violence can ever be predicted with a tolerable level of error. In this article, I provisionally explore this very issue, particularly as it appears in the context of decisions concerning the disposition of criminal sexual offenders.     

Representation,neighboring districts,and party loyalty in the U.S. Congress

Legislative scholars often assume that legislators are motivated by concerns over re-election. This assumption implies that legislators are forward-looking and are motivated by a concern over what their re-election constituency will look like during their next electoral cycle. In this research, we show how the forward-looking nature of legislators motivates members of the U.S. House of Representatives to represent both their home district and their neighboring districts in their choices regarding when to support their own party. Using survey responses to the 2006, 2008, and 2010 Cooperative Congressional Elections Study to construct measures of Congressional District ideology, empirical analysis is strongly supportive of our claims. Legislators’ choices are strongly influenced both by the ideology of their home district and that of the districts that neighbor their home district. Thus, the electoral connection between citizens and representatives extends beyond a legislator’s own constituents to include the constituents in neighboring districts.     

Dodging Dodd‐Frank: Excessive Speculation,Commodities Markets,and the Burden of Proof

Inspired by the wave of regulatory rulemaking, which followed the 2008 financial crisis and the passage of the Dodd‐Frank Act, this article examines the efforts of the Commodities Futures Trading Commission to implement one such rule: Rule 76 FR 4752. Born of concerns with the impact of financial speculators on commodities prices, the rule calls for the expanded use of position limits to control “excessive speculation” in US commodities markets. In documenting the political and legal life of this rule from its roots in policy reports through to its suspension by a federal judge, the article explores the place of “evidence” in the rulemaking process. Particular attention is devoted to the growing evidentiary burden placed on financial regulators who are expected to frame market problems in terms of quantitative, price‐based forms of harm. In the case of position limits, this has involved statistical analyses of the causal connections between excessive speculation and commodities prices and the use of a single statistical test: Granger causality. By examining the parameters and limitations of this test, the article offers a valuable window into the unique challenges of financial regulation and their roots in questions of knowledge, evidence, and proof.     

The business of bribery: Globalization, economic liberalization, and the “problem” of corruption

This paper is intended as a critical response to the emerging consensus within both academic and policy literatures that we are currently facing an epidemic of corruption which threatens to undermine the stability of economic and political development on both a national and global scale, and which requires both immediate and wide-ranging policy interventions. Based on a review of the publications and policy statements of the leading anti-corruption crusaders — namely the OECD, the IMF, and the World Bank — it will be argued that the recent concern with corruption is attributable, not to any substantive increase incorrupt practices, but rather, to the re-framing of corruption in light of broader shifts and transformations within the global economy. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

East German Intelligence and Ireland, 1949–90: Espionage,Terrorism and Diplomacy

This article analyses the writings of a prominent German social and political theorist ‐ Jürgen Habermas ‐ on the process of (reunification in Germany and examines responses to his interventions by right‐wing thinkers opposed to his views. (Re)unification is a setting of rapidly developing and changing events which present a challenge to Habermas’ thinking. Put simply, Habermas is highly critical of the ‘rush towards (re)unification’ and the process which has followed it. In particular, he objects to attempts by right‐wing thinkers, predominantly historians, to rewrite German history and which elude German responsibility in respect of the horrors of the Holocaust. Equally, he has explicitly shown the links between questions of German identity and the rewriting of German history and argues that the only viable identity for Germany post‐(re)Unification is that of ‘constitutional identity’ and not national identity. His writings have, however, been the subject of sometimes vehement and vitriolic critiques and this article seeks not only to engage with these but also to examine the interventions of Habermas in relation to his earlier more theoretical writings.     

Technical decisions and public accountability

Abstract. The paper focuses on Canadian decisions involving technical issues. The inherent difficulties associated with the application of technical advice and the need to secure public accountability for related government action are both discussed. It is suggested specifically that although there has been a significant governmental response to the problem of man-made hazards, much remains to be achieved. The general difficulties with the concepts of ‘public accountability’ and ‘technical advice’ are reviewed, and some observations are made on the idea of ‘risk’ The particular Canadian problems dealt with include those derived from the constitutional and overall political situation. The case of asbestos is introduced especially to illustrate inter-provincial inadequacies. Intra-provincial shortcomings are brought out by reference to the dangers resulting from lead. Note is taken of the limitations imposed by the legal system, and of the issues precipitated by Canada's industrial structure. The foreign policy dimension is recognized. The vinyl chloride issue is used to illustrate the long-term and yet fundamental nature of many risks. Recommendations are finally made concerning the roles of the Environmental Advisory Council and of the National Research Council's Associate Committee on Scientific Criteria for Environmental Quality, and an attempt is made to identify the detailed responsibilities which should fall to the federal government, both in regard to general and occupational standards covering man-made hazards, and more generally in regard to all the ways in which the general and specific publics can be safeguarded. Sommaire. L'auteur traite plus particulièrement des décisions relatives aux questions techniques. Il expose les difficultés inhérentes à l'application des conseils techniques et le besoin d'assurer le droit de regard du public sur les mesures gouvernementales. Il considère en particulier, qu'en dépit de la réaction positive du gouvernement face au problème des risques d'origine humaine, il reste encore beaucoup a faire. Il examine les difficultés générales que présentent les concepts du « droit de regard du public » et des « conseils techniques » et il présentent certaines observations sur la notion de » risque ». Les problèmes plus particulièrement canadiens dont il s'occupe sont la consequence de la situation constitutionnelle et de la situation politique générale. Il utilise le cas de l'amiante pour illustrer les carences interprovinciales. Ces mêmes carences sont évidentes, également, si l'on considère les dangers que présente le plomb. Il prend note des limites imposées par la loi et les problèmes posés par la structure industrielle du Canada. Il reconnait aussi la dimension politique étrangère. L'auteur se sert de la question du chlorure de vinyle pour illustrer le caractère à long terme et pourtant fondamental d'un grand nombre de dangers. Il fait des recommandations quant aux rôles du Conseil consultatif sur l'environnement et du comité du cnr sur les normes scientifiques pour la qualité de l'environnement. Il dégage enfin les différentes responsabilités du government fédéral, quant aux normes générales et professionnelles couvrant les risques créés par l'homme et, d'une façon plus large, quant aux moyens de protéger le public, qu'il s'agisse du grand public ou de groupes particuliers.     

Examining the Criminal History and Future Offending of Child Pornography Offenders: An Extended Prospective Follow-up Study

We examined police occurrence and criminal records data for a sample of 201 registered male child pornography offenders originally reported by Seto and Eke (Sex Abus J Res Treat 17:201–210, 2005), extending the average follow-up time for this sample to 5.9 years. In addition, we obtained the same data for another 340 offenders, increasing our full sample to 541 men, with a total average follow-up of 4.1 years. In the extended follow-up of the original sample, 34% of offenders had new charges for any type of reoffense, with 6% charged with a contact sexual offense against a child and an additional 3% charged with historical contact sex offenses (i.e., previously undetected offenses). For the full sample, there was a 32% any recidivism rate; 4% of offenders were charged with new contact sex offences, an additional 2% of offenders were charged with historical contact sex offenses and 7% of offenders were charged with a new child pornography offense. Predictors of new violent (including sexual contact) offending were prior offense history, including violent history, and younger offender age. Approximately a quarter of the sample was sanctioned for a failure on conditional release; in half of these failures, the offenders were in contact with children or used the internet, often to access pornography again.     

Latent fingermark visualisation using reduced-pressure sublimation of copper phthalocyanine

The sublimation of copper phthalocyanine (CuPc) at a temperature of 400°C under conditions of reduced pressure is shown to be an effective method of developing latent fingermarks on certain types of surface. Preliminary experiments on a limited selection of surfaces including paper, plastic and ceramic tiles were carried out using a simple apparatus consisting of a vacuum desiccator and a resistive heater. CuPc from the gas phase condenses preferentially on fingermark deposits, revealing deep blue patterns with excellent ridge detail clarity on light coloured surfaces. The technique is shown to be most effective on porous surfaces such as paper, but relatively ineffective on non-porous ceramic and plastic surfaces.