Estimating Size of Drug Users in Macau: an Open Population Capture-Recapture Model with Data Augmentation Using Public Registration Data

Successful drug intervention policies rely on timely assessment of size of drug users and close monitoring of trend regarding drug abuse. Taking advantage of data collected by the Central Registration System for Drug Abusers of Macau (CRSDAM), this study applied open population capture-recapture models with data augmentation techniques to estimate the size of drug users and to identify influential factors on capture and survival probabilities from 2009 to 2014. In particular, the data augmentation technique was used to address missing data issues. The estimated size of drug users has been slowly declining from 2442 (95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI] 2042–2914) in 2009 to 807 (95% BCI 654–1000) in 2014 with a small fluctuation of 2251 (95% BIC 1950–2599) in 2011, and the estimated cumulative size of drug users is 6199 (95% BCI 5651–6873), which is correspondent to a prevalence rate of 1.20% of the current population aged 15 to 54. Although the estimated sizes of total, narcotic, and other drug users were declining, the size of stimulant users might be increasing. People who used narcotics as their first drug and who were reported by governmental agencies were more likely to stay in the registration system, while those who used needle injection were less likely to stay. Governmental agencies, higher education, and using needle injection were negatively associated with the probability of capture over time, while using narcotics as the first drug was positively associated with it.     

日本社会教育的概念研究

明治维新后，伴随着近代学校教育制度的诞生，日本的社会教育也应运而生。本研究不仅考证了社会教育在日本的由来，确认了社会教育乃日本明治以后出现的特有的教育形态；并从教化型、民主型、终身型等三方面厘清了日本不同历史时期学者对社会教育的多元界定；而且对日本的社会教育和社会事业、社会政策、国家教育、国民教育、家庭教育、学校教育、终身教育、终身学习、成人教育、社区教育等相关概念的区别与联系进行了辨析。在此基础上，归纳了日本社会教育概念的五个特征，即丰富多样性、暧昧模糊性、服务主体性、法律健全性、实践追求性等。