Never a dull moment: Pim Fortuyn and the Dutch parliamentary election of 2002

The 2002 parliamentary election in the Netherlands will always be associated with the name of Pim Fortuyn. His murder only nine days before the election was the first political assassination in the Netherlands in more than 300 years. The sudden success of the new party he had founded, coupled with the major losses for the Labour and Liberal parties, made this an historic election. This article attempts to understand the motivations of the voters at this election, in particular the voters of the List Pim Fortuyn (LPF). It is first shown that the conventional wisdom, which assumes voting based on religion and social class, and voting along ideological issue lines, has lost its ability to explain voter behaviour in the Netherlands. An explanation based on retrospective economic voting is also rejected. The success of the LPF is accounted for by the popularity of Fortuyn and his appeal among those who had cynical attitudes towards government or who were dissatisfied with the performance of the incumbent government. The popularity of Fortuyn is shown to have been related to political issues, in particular those relating to asylum seekers and the integration of foreigners in the country.     

Advancing without Attacking: The Strategic Game around the Use of Force

What is the nature of the strategic game that states play during crises? Extensive research examines the leading answer: coercive bargaining. States prevail by signaling resolve, establishing the credibility of their threats, and coercing their adversaries into backing down. However, instead of (or in addition to) traditional coercive bargaining, this article shows that states frequently play out a different game with its own set of rules and tactics. The article explores how states outmaneuver their adversaries: working around their red lines, taking gains by fait accompli and imposing pressure where it is possible to do so without quite crossing the line of unambiguously using force. Based on this premise, the article develops a theoretical framework for understanding strategic interaction during crises, referred to as advancing without attacking, and shows that it best explains the course of the Berlin Blockade Crisis of 1948–49 while also shedding light on other prominent crises.     

Health care for the poor.

In the 1980s the convergence of a number of factors is causing government at all levels, industry, and labor to plan or initiate major reductions in health spending. Important among these are rising health care costs, a troubled national economy, mounting federal deficits and state revenue shortfalls, and the philosophical course and domestic policy of the Reagan administration. In this context government has been rethinking its capacity to finance health services for the poor, and new and sometimes controversial arrangements for delivering these services are being developed. The dilemma government officials face now is how to cut costs while still assuring that quality medical services are available. This article focuses on what these new policy developments and arrangements are and whether the significant gains in access and in health achieved over the past 20 years will be sustained. Because truly sweeping reforms are unlikely, whether government will maintain earlier commitments and established arrangements for financing and delivering health services to the poor will be worked out piecemeal over the next several years.     

VISITATION AND CHILD SUPPORT GUIDELINES

Fabricius and Braver argue that nonresident fathers incur appreciable visitation expenses and that their child support obligations should be reduced accordingly. To assess whether fathers incur "appreciable" expenses requires data from mothers and fathers on expenditures in dollar terms rather than data from college students on items kept in the nonresident father's house. The Fabricius and Braver data also overstate the degree to which all divorced fathers do anything for their children. Representative data indicate that father visitation declines substantially over time. Father's postdivorce, post–child support standard of living remains twice that of mothers and children. The cliff model—making adjustments for visitation only in the rare cases of very high shared physical custody—is sensible policy.     

Santam and Nando's: An advertising narrative of local humour,local conflict,local co-branding

ABSTRACT

In 2011 South African short term insurer Santam (Santam Ltd.) put in place an advertising initiative that illustrates the power of a humorous brand narrative effected in conjunction with another brand. In this case, it is the South African arm of Nando's (Nando's Chickenland Ltd.), a fast food restaurant chain specialising in Portuguese-themed chicken dishes that rely heavily on peri-peri spices. The two well-known brands aired a series of five commercials on television and the Internet, trading good-humoured jibes centred around the value proposition of each company's offering. The resultant rise in social media viewership and consumer engagement was notable and illustrates the efficacy of a cobranded narrative run over numerous media platforms; in this case radio, television, social media, print and the Internet.     

Democratic theory,the courts and the press

Powerful social forces block the transition from authoritarianism to democracy. Economic, political and social stability has not yet been achieved. The corporatist political and social structures have not been transformed to allow the vast majority to enjoy the basic necessities that ensure a life of dignity. Institutional structures of government, such as an independent judiciary, must be developed and stabilized. The rule of law and the guarantees of due process have to be consolidated and become an accepted, basic requirement of social interaction. Creating a specific kind of deliberative democracy based on the epistemic value of democratic decision making and discussion is the only way forward. This justificatory theory is more likely to allow for equal participation and rational discourse among all segments of the population. Objective information on important societal issues is a necessary prerequisite for such participation. This requires an independent press that adequately performs its democratic functions. Moreover, an independent judiciary has an indispensable role to play in this process, particularly in protecting the free flow of information to the people so that they can make informed choices on issues crucial to a democracy.     

Performance measures as forms of evidence for science and technology policy decisions

Amidst current widespread calls for evidence based decision making on public investments in science and technological innovation, frequently interpreted to imply the employment of some bundle of output, outcome, productivity, or rate-of-return measures, the promises and limitations of performance measures, singly or collectively, varies greatly across contexts. The promises reflect belief in, scholarly research supportive of, and opportunistic provision of performance measures that respond or cater to executive and legislative branch expectations or hopes that such measures will facilitate evidence-based decision-making. The limitations reflect research on the dynamics of scientific discovery, technological innovation and the links between the two that even when well done and used by adepts, performance measures at best provide limited guidance for future expenditure decisions and at worst are rife with potential for incorrect, faddish, chimerical, and counterproductive decisions. As a decision-making enhancement, performance measurement techniques have problematic value when applied to the Big 3 questions of U.S. science policy: (1) what is the optimal size of the Federal government’s investments in science and technology programs; (2) the allocation of these investments among missions/agencies/and programs (and thus fields of science); and (3) the selection of performers, funding mechanisms, and the criteria used to select projects and performers.     

Psychological profiling of sexual murders: an empirical model

Psychological profiling represents the investigative technique of analyzing crime behaviors for the identification of probable offender characteristics. Profiling has progressively been incorporated into police procedures despite a surprising lack of empirical research to support its validity. Indeed, in the study of sexual murder for the purpose of profiling, very few quantitative, academically reviewed studies exist. This article reports on the results of a 4-year study into Australian sexual murders for the development of psychological profiling. The study involved 85 cases of sexual murder sampled from all Australian police jurisdictions. The statistical procedure of multidimensional scaling was employed. This analysis produced a five-cluster model of sexual murder behavior. First, a central cluster of behaviors was identified that represents common behaviors to all patterns of sexual murder. Next, four distinct outlying patterns--predator, fury, perversion, and rape--were identified that each demonstrated distinct offense styles. Further analysis of these patterns also identified distinct offender characteristics that allow for the use of empirically robust offender profiles in future sexual murder investigations.