New Parties: Game Changers or ‘Much Ado About Nothing'?

This article is about the new parties that competed at the Danish parliamentary election of 2019. It addresses three key questions: why did they emerge, what types of parties were they and what impact did they have on Danish party politics. We can identify the causes for their emergence and participation in interplay of relatively lenient rules for party registration, personal ambition, recent events – particularly the Syrian crisis and arrival of refugees – as well as anti-establishment sentiments on the political right. The three new parties shared salient characteristics: they had dominant leaders, were genuinely new, had extraparliamentary origins and were independent of societal organizations. In terms of effects on the party system, the main impact was during the campaign where the strongly anti-immigration agenda proposed by two of the parties dominated the conversation and appeared to cause some movement by established parties in a more immigrant friendly direction. Only one of the far right parties won seats in parliament and its prospects of wielding influence on policy with a Socialdemocratic government are slim.     

Electorally unstable by supply or demand?—an examination of the causes of electoral volatility in advanced industrial democracies

The stability of voters’ partisan choices from election to election is a key feature of democratic politics, but why it varies across advanced industrial democracies and elections is not well understood. This study makes several key contributions to explaining electoral volatility. Firstly, it is argued and demonstrated that strategic voting plays an independent role in inducing vote switching. Secondly, the analysis shows that demand-side factors—such as socio-economic cleavages and organizations—do not predict voter stability, whereas supply-side factors—such as the party system, government performance, and strategic incentives—do. Thirdly, earlier contradictory findings with respect to the role of the electoral system are clarified, as its effects are shown to be indirect rather than direct. And finally, the importance of the temporal dimension to stability is demonstrated, as the time since the previous election is found to have a positive effect on volatility. The results are based on a comprehensive statistical analysis of 336 elections in 21 countries between 1950–2005, where the significance as well as the robustness of individual variables across different model specifications inform the conclusions.     

Between a rock and a hard place: Balancing the duties of political responsiveness and legality in the civil service

Civil servants play a key role in upholding the core democratic principles of majority rule and legality in daily government operations. Yet we know little about how civil servants balance these principles in practice—or why. This study asks and answers these questions by qualitatively and quantitatively analyzing Danish civil servants' responses to survey questions on dilemmas that force them to choose between their duty to be responsive to government and their duty to uphold the law. To explain their choices, the analysis draws on rational and sociological institutional theories of bureaucratic behavior. The results suggest that factors related to both rational self-interest and socialization explain that as many as one in four civil servants choose responsiveness over legality. Formal organizational roles also predict their behavior.     

Comparison of Frequentist Methods for Estimating the Total Weight of Consignments of Drugs

Abstract: A topic in forensic statistics is the estimation of the total weight of consignments of drugs based on subsamples of which a certain fraction may not contain drugs at all. The frequentist approach to this concentrates on obtaining confidence intervals for the total weight, based on estimation of the fraction of drugs and the mean and variance of the weights of drug units. The current study shows that the resulting confidence intervals are basically unreliable, since they are based on an underestimation of the variation of the underlying statistical process. Two alternatives are given that yield asymptotically correct results. These are not reliable for small subsamples either, though, because of the inherent multimodal behaviour of the sample mean. In cases where a relatively large fraction of the consignment contains no drugs, the confidence intervals reported in the literature should not be used in practice.     

Computational Approach to Identify Different Injuries by Firearms

Complications arise in the analysis of gunshot wounds to the maxillofacial region, when neither the projectile nor the gun is found at the crime scene. We simulated 5‐ and 15‐cm firing distances at a human mandible to investigate the external morphology of entrance wounds based on fire range. The ammunition models, .40‐caliber S&W, .380‐caliber, and 9 × 19‐mm Luger, were constructed with free‐form NURBS surfaces. In a dynamic simulation, projectiles were fired against mandibular body 3D model at 5 and 15 cm. All entrance wounds presented oval aspect. Maximum diameter and von Mises stress values were 16.5 mm and 50.8 MPa, both for .40‐caliber S&W fired at 5 cm. The maximum energy loss was 138.4 J for .40 S&W fired at 15 cm. In conclusion, the mandible was most affected by .40‐caliber S&W and morphological differences were observable in holes caused by different incoming projectile calibers fired at different distances.     

Magazine Influence on Cartridge Case Ejection Patterns with Glock Pistols

In this study, the cartridge case ejection patterns of six different Glock model pistols (one specimen per model) were compared under three conditions: firing with a loaded magazine, an empty magazine, and without magazine. The distances, covered by the ejected cartridge cases given these three conditions, were compared for each of the six models. A significant difference was found between the groups of data for each of the tested specimens. This indicates that it is important that, to reconstruct a shooting scene incident based on the ejection patterns of a pistol, test shots are fired with the same pistol type and under the correct magazine condition.     

On the Origins of the Franco-German EMU Controversies

EMU represented an important change in the economic constitution of the European Union. It is, to a large extent, a culmination of a process of Franco-German reconciliation and understanding. However, in the postwar period, there were significant differences in thought and economic policy-making in Germany and France. France was dominated by the tradition républicaine, giving a central role to the state in economic life. In Germany, the federal structure of the state went together with the social market economy. In this paper an analysis is presented of these differences in thought and economic policy-making, how they evolved through time, and how they contributed to shaping the nature and economic constitution of the European Union. The focus of the paper is on the Rome Treaties, the Werner Report and the Maastricht Treaty process.     

Repeatability and reproducibility of earprint acquisition

For all forensic disciplines dealing with identification -- e.g., of glass, tool marks, fibers, faces, fingers, handwriting, speakers -- in which manual (subjective, nonautomated) processes play a role, operator dependencies are relevant. With respect to earprint identification, in the period 2002-2005, the Forensic Ear Identification research project collected a database of 1229 donors, three prints per ear, and laid down a "best practice" for print acquisition. Repeatability and reproducibility aspects of the print acquisition are tested. The study suggests that different operators may acquire prints of differing quality, with equal error rates of the matching system ranging from 9% to 19%. Moreover, it turns out that "matching" earprints are more alike when taken in a consecutive row than when taken on separate occasions. This underlines the importance of (1) studying operator effects, (2) operator training, and (3) not gathering "matching" reference material at the same occasion.     

Influence of Muzzle Instability on Bullet Deflection after Perforating Laminated Particleboards

The influence of muzzle instability on bullet deflection, when perforating laminated particleboards, was studied with three different handgun bullet types. The mean deflection angles of .32 Auto FMJ and .38 Special SJHP bullets were calculated to be 0.90° and 0.83°, respectively after perforating particleboards orthogonally at a 1 m muzzle-to-target distance. The mean angles dropped to 0.70° and 0.58° at a 15 m muzzle-to-target distance. The differences in deflection angles proved to be statistically significant (p < 0.05) with p-values of 0.023 and 0.001, respectively. The mean calculated deflection angles of .38 Special LRN bullets also dropped from 1.51° to 1.38° when the muzzle-to-target distance was increased from 1 to 15 m, but this difference was not significant (p-value of 0.357). The results support the hypothesis that muzzle instability has an influence on deflection. The possible implications for shooting incident reconstructions and for future research are discussed.     

Performance Study of a Score‐based Likelihood Ratio System for Forensic Fingermark Comparison

In this article, the performance of a score‐based likelihood ratio (LR) system for comparisons of fingerprints with fingermarks is studied. The system is based on an automated fingerprint identification system (AFIS) comparison algorithm and focuses on fingerprint comparisons where the fingermarks contain 6–11 minutiae. The hypotheses under consideration are evaluated at the level of the person, not the finger. The LRs are presented with bootstrap intervals indicating the sampling uncertainty involved. Several aspects of the performance are measured: leave‐one‐out cross‐validation is applied, and rates of misleading evidence are studied in two ways. A simulation study is performed to study the coverage of the bootstrap intervals. The results indicate that the evidential strength for same source comparisons that do not meet the Dutch twelve‐point standard may be substantial. The methods used can be generalized to measure the performance of score‐based LR systems in other fields of forensic science.