OFFENDING TRAJECTORIES IN A NEW ZEALAND BIRTH COHORT*

In this paper, we develop a latent class modeling method to examine variation in offending trajectories. This model is applied to test the predictions of the trajectory theories developed by Moffitt and Patterson that offending history data can be classified into early onset/life‐course‐persistent offending and late onset/adolescent‐limited offending trajectories, with these trajectory groups being related to different etiological factors. The approach was applied to data gathered over the course of a longitudinal study of more than 900 New Zealand children studied from birth until the age of 18. The analysis identified four trajectory groups, with these trajectory groups corresponding to nonoffenders, moderate risk offenders, adolescent onset offenders, and chronic offenders. The adolescent onset and chronic offender groups were similar to the trajectory groupings predicted by the Moffitt/Patterson theories. Examination of social, family, childhood, and peer factors associated with these offending trajectories suggested the presence of a series of common etiological factors relating to family functioning and early adjustment that discriminated between the trajectory groups. However, evidence of trajectory‐specific etiology also existed, in which the formation of deviant peer affiliations for young people from moderate risk backgrounds led to the rapid onset of offending in adolescence.     

JUVENILE INVOLVEMENT IN OCCUPATIONAL DELINQUENCY*

Although concern with white‐collar crime has grown considerably in recent years, little research has been undertaken on the workplace misconduct of juveniles. This omission is noteworthy because of the extensive involvement of youths in the labor market. Accordingly, based on a sample of high school seniors, we explored the determinants of youths' occupational delinquency. The analysis revealed that work‐related delinquency is affected both by underlying criminal propensities and by contact with delinquent coworkers on the job. It also appears that delinquent youths are selected into negative work environments in which they come into contact with fellow delinquents—an interaction effect that amplifies their occupational delinquency. Finally, the data suggest that associating with delinquent coworkers affects misbehavior not only within, but also outside the workplace. The theoretical implications of these findings are explored.     

DO RETURNING PAROLEES AFFECT NEIGHBORHOOD CRIME? A CASE STUDY OF SACRAMENTO*

This study used a unique data set that combines information on parolees in the city of Sacramento, CA, over the 2003–2006 time period with information on monthly crime rates in Sacramento census tracts over this same period, providing us a fine‐grained temporal and geographical view of the relationship between the change in parolees in a census tract and the change in the crime rate. We find that an increase in the number of tract parolees in a month results in an increase in the crime rate. We find that more violent parolees have a particularly strong effect on murder and burglary rates. We find that the social capital of the neighborhood can moderate the effect of parolees on crime rates: Neighborhoods with greater residential stability dampen the effect of parolees on robbery rates, whereas neighborhoods with greater numbers of voluntary organizations dampen the effect of parolees on burglary and aggravated assault rates. Furthermore, this protective effect of voluntary organizations seems strongest for those organizations that provide services for youth. We show that the effect of single‐parent households in a neighborhood is moderated by the return of parolees, which suggests that these reunited families may increase the social control ability of the neighborhood.     

Governance in Central Government: Reconciling Accountability and Capability

Governance structures in central government departments are poorly articulated. Departmental boards were imported from the private sector; in central government their remit and accountability are obscure, as is their role in relation to Permanent Secretaries and Ministers—whose leadership roles are also muddled. This brings costs for Ministers, departments and the public. Improvements have proved elusive, in part because an underlying confusion has been neglected—about how bodies subject to the almost unlimited democratic accountability of Ministers are to be governed. The confusion can be cleared up, principles of governance formulated, and concrete improvements proposed. These include: better articulation of Permanent Secretaries' presumptive leadership role; strengthened lines of external accountability; and more coherent provisions for the role and accountabilities of boards, and their relationship with Ministers, Permanent Secretaries, and the centre of government. Such changes should improve accountability, leadership, capability and delivery.     

Do people want a ‘fairer’ electoral system? An experimental study in four countries

When judging how ‘fair’ voting rules are, a fundamental criterion used by both scholars and politicians is their ability or inability to produce proportional results – that is, the extent parties’ seat distribution after the elections accurately reflects their vote shares. How about citizens? Do citizens care about how proportional the outcome is? Or do they judge the outcome solely on the basis of how well (or poorly) their party performed? Taking advantage of a uniquely designed survey experiment, this article investigates the causal effect of proportionality on voter support for voting rules in four countries: Austria, England, Ireland and Sweden. The results show that proportionality drives support for the voting rules not above, but beyond party performance. There is little cross-country variation, which suggests that proportionality is appreciated in different contexts with little status quo bias. These findings have important implications for our understanding of the causal mechanisms linking electoral rules to voter support.