Modeling the Evolution of Legal Discretion.An Artificial Intelligence Approach

Abstract. Much legal research focuses on understanding how judicial decision‐makers exercise their discretion. In this paper we examine the notion of legal or judicial discretion, and weaker and stronger forms of discretion. At all times our goal is to build cognitive models of the exercise of discretion, with a view to building computer software to model and primarily support decision‐making. We observe that discretionary decision‐making can best be modeled using three independent axes: bounded and unbounded, defined and undefined, and binary and continuous. Examples of legal tasks are given from each of the eight ensuing octants and we conclude by saying what this model shows about current legal trends. We should stress that our taxonomy has been based on our observations of how discretionary legal decisions are made. No claim is made that our model is either complete (providing advice in every domain) or exact, but it does help knowledge engineers construct legal decision support systems in discretionary domains.     

COPS GRANTS AND CRIME REVISITED*

Using 6 years of panel data, Zhao, Scheider, and Thurman (2002) found that funding from the U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Community Oriented Policing Services (COPS), reduced property and violent crime in large U.S. cities. We merged their COPS data with 11 years of panel data from a sample of 189 large cities, such that the period before the COPS program was covered. We also controlled for pre‐existing effects on crime of police spending. Finally, we performed various robustness checks and explored state‐specific effects of COPS spending. Our findings suggest that COPS spending had little to no effect on crime.     

EDWIN H. SUTHERLAND AND THE MICHAEL‐ADLER REPORT: SEARCHING FOR THE SOUL OF CRIMINOLOGY SEVENTY YEARS LATER*

In response to a devastating critique of the state of criminology known as the Michael‐Adler Report, Edwin H. Sutherland created differential association theory as a paradigm for the field of criminology. I contend that Sutherland's strategy was flawed because he embraced a sociological model of crime and in doing so adopted a form of sociological positivism. Furthermore, Sutherland ignored key facts about crime that were contrary to his theoretical predilections. Recognizing that facts must come first and that criminology is an interdisciplinary field of study, I offer life‐course criminology as a paradigm for understanding the causes and dynamics of crime. In addition, I identify three warning signs that I believe inhibit the advancement of criminology as a science and a serious intellectual enterprise.     

China and the Rest Are Only Joining the American‐Built Order

American‐led globalization has enabled the third great powershift of the last five hundred years—the “rise of the rest” following on the rise of the West and then the rise of the US as the dominant power in the West. When China, India, Brazil, Turkey and the rest sit at the table of global power with the West what will the world order look like? Will it be post‐American? Will it be culturally non‐Western, but play by the same rules of an open international order laid down by the American's after World War II? In the following pages, leading American and Asian intellectuals ponder these questions.     

Behind China＇s Liquidity Crisis

IN June, China suffered its worst liquidity crisis in over a decade. Fortunately, the Central Bank reversed the situation by extending liquidity operations to responsible financial institutions.     

The Rise of China＇s Global Companies

THE rise of individual Chinese companies to leadership positions in global competition is already well known. Lenovo is the world＇s largest PC producer. Haier is the world＇s largest household goods manufacturer. Huawei is the second largest producer of telecommunications equipment. Forbes magazine ranked ICBC as the world＇s overall number one company in 2013 by combined revenue, assets, profits and market capitalization.