Direct democracy and regional integration: Citizens' perceptions of treaty implications and the Irish reversal on Lisbon

Analyses of voting in European Union referendums typically distinguish between ‘second‐order’ effects and the impact of substantive ‘issues’. In order to explain change in referendum outcome, two types of substantive issues are distinguished in this article. Focusing on Irish voting in the Lisbon Treaty referendums and using data from post‐referendum surveys, it is found that perceptions of treaty implications outperform underlying attitudes to EU integration in predicting vote choice at both referendums, and perceptions of treaty implications are strong predictors of vote change between the referendums. The findings have broadly positive implications for normative assessments of the usefulness of direct democracy as a tool for legitimising regional integration advance.     

“SEEING” MINORITIES AND PERCEPTIONS OF DISORDER: EXPLICATING THE MEDIATING AND MODERATING MECHANISMS OF SOCIAL COHESION

Research shows that residents report high levels of disorder in places with greater concentrations of minorities even after controlling for objective indicators of crime or disorder. Less understood, however, are the mechanisms that explain this relationship. Drawing on a survey of nearly 10,000 residents nested within 297 neighborhoods across two cities, we use a multiple indicators–multiple causes model to examine the cues that lead individuals to distort the presence of minorities in neighborhoods. We then employ multilevel models to test whether these distortions influence perceptions of disorder. Furthermore, we assess whether living in a socially cohesive neighborhood mediates and/or moderates the relationship between “seeing” minorities and perceiving disorder. We find that when residents overestimate the proportion of minorities living in their neighborhood, perceptions of disorder are heightened. Yet social cohesion moderates and partially mediates this relationship: Residents living in socially cohesive neighborhoods not only report less disorder than those living in less cohesive communities, but also they “see” fewer minorities when compared with residents living in less socially cohesive neighborhoods. These results suggest that social cohesion is an important mechanism for explaining how residents internalize the presence of minorities in their neighborhoods and how this then leads to perceived neighborhood disorder.     

An Overview of Budgeting Formats

Budgeting is more than collecting revenue and expenditure estimates. It is a fiscal process by which law enforcement officials select objectives and design ways to achieve those objectives. A budget, in other words, is a systematic plan which indicates where the money will come from, how much will be spent, and what it will be spent for. A budget is a fiscal plan for a given period of time.

Although a variety of budgeting formats exist, this article discusses the four which are the most widely used today—line-item budgeting, program budgeting, performance budgeting, and zero-based budgeting. Understanding the various types of budgeting formats enables law enforcement officials to improve resource allocation and operation effectiveness and to develop short- and long-term plans for future operations. As long as resources continue to be scarce and retrenchment management is operative, law enforcement officials need to understand the budgeting formats discussed in this article.     

THE DYNAMICS OF CRIME REGIMES*

Crimes have many features, and the mix of those features can change over time and space. In this article, we introduce the concept of a crime regime to provide some theoretical leverage on collections of crime features and how the collections of features can change. Key tools include the use of principal components analysis to determine the dimensions of crime regimes, visualization methods to help reveal the role of time, summary statistics to quantify crime regime patterns, and permutation procedures to examine the role of chance. Our approach is used to analyze temporal and spatial crime patterns for the city of Los Angeles during an 8‐year period. We focus on the number of violent crimes over time and their potential lethality.     

Principals in Practice: The Importance of Mentorship in the Early Stages of Career Development

In this article we empirically assess the benefits of mentorship across a diverse range of extrinsic and intrinsic career rewards. Using an integrated model, we investigate the ways in which characteristics of the organization, as well as characteristics of both protégés and mentors affect the outcomes of mentoring relationships. Our study includes two samples: new law school graduates and a more seasoned cohort of established lawyers. Our results reveal the unique contributions of career and psychosocial mentor functions to early and established careers, as well as the substantial rewards of informal and multiple mentors to the career paths of professionals.     

Editorial

Today the United States faces an unpredictable security environment characterized by regional powers and non-state actors, such as vast terrorist networks, who wield increasingly lethal weapons. To address this security environment, the George W. Bush administration has endorsed the ‘transformation’ of US military forces. This article focuses on one transformational goal, namely the development of long-range precision strike capabilities, and examines the feasibility and desirability of using existing ballistic missiles as conventional global strike assets. While some of the futuristic and stealthy long-range technologies currently touted by defense planners might fulfill their promise and could someday be deployed, conventional ballistic missiles could offer an efficient global strike capability much sooner, one that would complement other existing global strike capabilities as research and development on more futuristic platforms continues. Thus, by combining existing capabilities, advanced technologies and new, flexible concepts of operations, the United States can deliver tomorrow's capability today.     

China Is Winning the New Global Industrial Contest

THE international financial crisis brought about a radical change in the structure of international industrial competition.That China is winning the new industrial race is the only conclusion that can be drawn from the pattern of industrial expansion and contraction in the major industrial centers over the five years since the beginning of the 2008 international financial crisis. China’s position among industrial centers isn’t inherently obvious from a glance at yearly data.To fully gauge changes in the industrial competition landscape,it’s best to look longerterm.Below,the first chart shows changes in