Big Brother as a Contract Monitor: An Assessment of the Use of Contract Staff to Monitor Offender Communications

The privatization of prison services is a growing trend in the field of corrections; however, this growth has not been matched by evaluative research. This study examines the use of contract staff to supplement state intelligence investigators’ efforts to monitor outgoing offender telephone communications for evidence of illicit activity at 18 adult institutions in a Midwestern department of corrections. Percent-change models and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modeling are used to examine aggregates of intelligence reports documenting drug, expressive, instrumental, and administrative violations. Our findings indicate that the introduction of contract services was associated with substantial increases in the number of intelligence reports filed within each of these categories. Furthermore, these results suggest that the use of privatized services that supplement rather than replace public efforts appear to be an ethical, efficient, and cost-effective alternative to comprehensive privatization.     

Fatah from Below: The Clash of Generations in Palestine

Dominated by a Fatah/Palestinian National Authority coalition, West Bank politics is characterized by authoritarianism, factionalism and an accommodating policy vis-à-vis the Israeli occupier. These features are prominent parts of what Hisham Sharabi called neopatriarchy, a dysfunctional political system that leaves societies internally repressive and externally weak, marginalizing the young and accommodating colonial interests. The resulting alienation and dissatisfaction among young Palestinians have led to two kinds of reaction that bear on the Palestinian–Israeli conflict: a well-organized but leaderless popular resistance, and destructive, spontaneous outbursts of violence. The onus is on the elite to reform the political culture, as liberation from Israeli occupation will not by itself improve the dysfunctional organization of West Bank politics.     

A Sensitivity Analysis of Egocentric Measures of Peer Delinquency to Latent Homophily: A Research Note

Objectives

Egocentric measures of peer delinquency, obtained through a census of a social network, have become the preferred operationalization for examining the relationships between social influence and delinquency. Studies regressing ego’s delinquency on the delinquency of nominated friend/s (i.e. alter/s) conclude that a statistically significant coefficient provides evidence of social influence. However, the inferences drawn from these studies may be biased by the introduction of artificial statistical dependence as a consequence of using social network data in a regression framework. Recent work (Shalizi and Thomas Sociol Methods Res 40:211–239, 2011) shows that latent homophily, or unmeasured confounding of observables, may lead to nonzero estimates of social influence, even if there is no causal significance. To examine this possibility, sensitivity analyses have been created (e.g. VanderWeele and Arah Epidemiology 22:42–52, 2011; VanderWeele Sociol Methods Res 40:240–255, 2011) to determine the robustness of an estimated coefficient to latent homophily.

Methods

In this research note, I examine the robustness of estimates for social influence from two articles (Haynie Am J Sociol 106:1013–1057, 2001; Meldrum et al. J Res Crime Delinq 46:353–376, 2009) using egocentric measures of peer delinquency.

Results

Findings indicate that for large, precise point estimates, highly improbable conditions are needed to explain away the effects of social influence. However, less precise point estimates (i.e. large standard errors) are more sensitive to latent homophily.

Conclusions

The analyses indicate that studies using egocentric measures should conduct sensitivity tests, particularly when the estimated effect is weak and/or has a relatively large standard error. Scripts written in the free programming language R (R Core Team R: a language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, 2012) are provided for researchers to conduct such analyses.     

The ASEAN way of conflict management: Old patterns and new trends

In the current international environment, greater emphasis is placed on regional and international responses to conflict. ASEAN is widely regarded as one of the most successful regional organisations in this area. This paper identifies the principles and institutional mechanisms for conflict management in ASEAN, and examines the extent to which these have changed in the post‐Cold War era. It argues that ASEAN may face increasing challenges to its policy of conflict avoidance, as more and more conflicts take place within ASEAN countries rather than between them.     

Islamic versus other identities in the Greater Middle East: Comments on the Ex‐Soviet Muslim republics

The six newly independent, ex‐Soviet Muslim republics share many characteristics. Common to all are identity conflicts based on ethnic ties, cultural traditions and attitudes to Islam. Most ethno‐nationalist groups have been mythologizing their past history and culture. Islam remains, however, the most important factor determining identity throughout the area, although in diverse ways. Realizing this, most political elites take an unfavorable view of the flow of extreme religious propaganda from Iran and Saudi Arabia and of the incursions from Afghanistan. Aware of the revival of Islam, some political leaders of the new states strive to encourage various patterns of moderate religion as a bulwark against militant Islam.     

Does Democracy Decrease Fear of Terrorism?

ABSTRACT

Fear is an integral part of terrorism. Fighting fear can thus be a crucial part of counterterrorist policies. In the case of terrorism, citizens look to the state for protection. Yet, most studies of terrorist fear emphasize individual-level factors. We lack studies that link fear to features of the state, especially whether democratic states are capable of reducing fear among its citizens. Our study aims to fill part of this research gap by asking whether democratic government reduces or increases fear of terrorism. We find that there is substantial cross-country variance in citizens’ fear of terrorism. The results suggest that fear is more widespread among citizens in non-democratic countries compared to citizens in democratic countries. Actual exposure to terrorist attacks has no impact on citizens’ fear of terrorism when we account for whether the country is a democracy or not. Hence, democratic government displays resilience towards fear mongering.     

Is this Paper Dangerous? Balancing Secrecy and Openness in Counterterrorism

We analyze a seemingly simple question: When should government share private information that may be useful to terrorists? Policy makers' answer to this question has typically been “it is dangerous to share information that can potentially help terrorists.” Unfortunately, this incomplete response has motivated a detrimental increase in the amount of information government keeps private or labels “sensitive but unclassified.” We identify two distinct types of private information that are potentially useful to terrorists and identify the range of conditions under which sharing each can enhance counterterrorism efforts. Our results highlight the complex trade-offs policy makers face in deciding how much openness is right in a world where protecting the people from terrorists has become a central duty of government.     

Use of ‘Dear Colleague’ Letters in the US House of Representatives: A Study of Internal Communications

‘Dear colleague’ letters – formal, written, member-to-member correspondence – provide a unique window into internal communications in the US House of Representatives. In general, studies of congressional political communications tend to focus on external messaging by members (candidates) to their constituents (voters) through a focus on electoral or constituent communication. Yet these studies may or may not tell us why members choose to engage in internal communication. To address this gap, this paper draws on the literature and presents new hypotheses about factors that increase a member's likelihood of using dear colleague letters. Using House dear colleague letter data from the first session of the 111th Congress (2009), a negative binomial regression tests the importance of seniority, electoral vulnerability, leadership status, and majority party status for dear colleague letter senders. The analysis demonstrates that rank-and-file majority party members who are electorally ‘safe’ are more likely to use the dear colleague system.