An Economist’s View of Marriage

This article considers recent developments in the economic analysis of families. The usual economic analysis of families has considered families as household firms that produce goods and services. Recently this model of the household firm been challenged by an economic analysis of families that focuses on shared consumption in households rather than shared production. These challenges rest on the assumption that the basic economic problem for families is now coordination of taste and consumption rather than provision under conditions of scarcity. The article considers these challenges to the usual economic analysis of families and concludes that, in spite of the many changes to family structures in recent decades, the model of the household firm is still the most valid model of the family, especially for families with children.     

Supervision practices in specialty mental health probation: What happens in officer-probationer meetings?

As the correctional population continues to increase, probation agencies struggle to adequately supervise offenders with unique needs, including those with mental disorder. Although more than 100 U.S. probation agencies have implemented specialty mental health case-loads, little is known about their practices. Based on detailed observations of 83 audio-taped meetings, we examined interactions between probationers and officers in a prototypic specialty agency, focusing on the extent to which practices comport with evidence-based risk reduction principles. We found that specialty officers (a) more frequently discussed probationers' general mental health than any individual criminogenic need, (b) chiefly questioned, directed, affirmed, and supported (rather than confronted) probationers, and (c) relied more heavily on neutral strategies and positive pressures (e.g., inducements) rather than negative pressures (e.g., threats of incarceration) to monitor and enforce compliance. Implications for "what works" to promote community integration for probationers with mental disorder are discussed.     

Addressing the National Academy of Sciences' challenge: a method for statistical pattern comparison of striated tool marks

In February 2009, the National Academy of Sciences published a report entitled "Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States: A Path Forward." The report notes research studies must be performed to "…understand the reliability and repeatability…" of comparison methods commonly used in forensic science. Numerical classification methods have the ability to assign objective quantitative measures to these words. In this study, reproducible sets of ideal striation patterns were made with nine slotted screwdrivers, encoded into high-dimensional feature vectors, and subjected to multiple statistical pattern recognition methods. The specific methods employed were chosen because of their long peer-reviewed track records, widespread successful use for both industry and academic applications, rely on few assumptions on the data's underlying distribution, can be accompanied by standard confidence levels, and are falsifiable. For PLS-DA, correct classification rates of 97% or higher were achieved by retaining only eight dimensions (8D) of data. PCA-SVM required even fewer dimensions, 4D, for the same level of performance. Finally, for the first time in forensic science, it is shown how to use conformal prediction theory to compute identifications of striation patterns at a given level of confidence.     

Studying the Arabs: Myths and metaphors

The relationship between knowledge and power is examined in this article in terms of the social science literature base on Arab countries. It is argued that knowledge imposes normative constraints on the exercise of power, and the exercise of power is dependent on the lack of knowledge. This is examined in terms of the knowledge base on Iraq and Palestine, the two countries in the Arab world most decimated in the post-World War II era by the exercise of external power politics. The study is organized in three phases: (1) delimiting the population of scholarly literature in the social sciences on the Middle East by country; (2) drawing representative samples of scholarly literature on Iraq and Palestine from this population; and (3) content analysis of the samples. Jacqueline S. Ismael is a professor of social work at The University of Calgary. She has published a number of articles and monographs on social change in the Middle East, as well as several works on Canadian social policy. She is co-author with Tareq Y. Ismael ofThe People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen: The Politics of Socialist Transformation (1986),Government and Politics in Islam (1986),Politics and Government in the Middle East andNorth Africa (1991), andThe Gulf War and the New World Order (1994). Her most recent work isKuwait: Dependency and Class in a Rentier State (1993). Tareq Y. Ismael is a professor of political science at The University of Calgary. He has written extensively on Middle East politics, the international relations of the Middle East, and ideology in the Arab world. His recent publications includeInternational Relations of the Contemporary Middle East (1986),Middle East Studies: International Perspectives on the State of the Art (1990),The Communist Movement in Egypt (1990),Politics and Government in the Middle East and North Africa (1991), andThe Gulf War and the New World Order (1994).     

A closer look at adolescent sexual activity

This study of 1228 parochial students in the eastern United States answered questions about adolescent sexuality. Few of the students surveyed claimed that sex was forced or even pressured. Over half of the students reported going steady as their relationship status when experiencing their first intercourse. Another fourth reported that they were dating or knew each other well. Approximately one-fifth of the students reported that drugs or alcohol was used at the time of first sex and three-fourths of them had first sex at either their own home or a friend's home. Nearly half of the students wished they had waited longer before having sex, especially the females and the more religious students. One-half of the nonvirgin students in the sample reported having had only one sexual partner. The implications of this information for setting social policy, designing and implementing effective sex education programs are discussed.Received Ph.D. in family studies/family science, Brigham Young University in 1994. Research and writing interests include adolescent sexuality and related problems, character education, and parenting.serving a sabbatical at BUY—Hawaii currently. Received Ph.D. in psychology at Michigan State in 1966. Research interests concern gender issues, parenting, and adolescent problems.In 1978 received Ph.D. in social psychology from the University of Washington. Research interests include adolescent problems and social policy.     

Diffusion in Homicide: Exploring a General Method for Detecting Spatial Diffusion Processes

This article proposes a new method for examining dynamic changes in thespatial distribution of a phenomenon. Recently introduced exploratoryspatial data analysis (ESDA) techniques provide social scientists with anew set of tools for distinguishing between random and nonrandom spatialpatterns of events (Anselin, 1998). Existing ESDA measures, however, arestatic and do not permit comparisons of distributions of events in the samespace but across different time periods. One ESDA method—the Moranscatterplot—has special heuristic value because it visually displayslocal spatial relationships between each spatial unit and its neighbors. Weextend this static cross-sectional view of the spatial distribution ofevents to consider dynamic features of changes over time in spatialdependencies. The method distinguishes between contagious diffusion betweenadjoining units and hierarchical diffusion that spreads broadly throughcommonly shared influences. We apply the method to homicide data, lookingfor evidence of spatial diffusion of youth-gang homicides acrossneighborhoods in a city. Contagious diffusion between neighboring censustracts is evident only during the year of peak growth in total homicides,when high local rates of youth-gang homicides are followed by significantincreases in neighboring youth- nongang rates. This pattern is consistentwith a spread of homicides from gang youth to nongang youth. Otherwise, theincreases in both youth-gang and youth- nongang homicides generally occursimultaneously in nonneighboring tracts.     

From an Italian Swiss Valley to Australia: A Study on Emigration and the Home Community

This paper discusses the origins of the emigration to Australia from a small and enclosed Swiss valley, the Poschiavo Valley in Canton Grigioni (the Grisons), in the 1850s. It argues that those left at home were a part of the same migration experience, and seeks, through the pages of a local newspaper, to direct attention to the question of how those emigrations were felt in home communities. It suggests that the emigration flow, although numerically small, and acknowledged as a necessity for survival, was traumatic, because the emigrants went beyond the recognised world of the Poschiavini, and threatened disintegration of traditional life and values.